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Friday 4 October 2024 15:54, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide his insight on the weekend Premier League card, tipping Ipswich to win at West Ham.
The last thing Crystal Palace need right now is a well-drilled and ruthless defensive unit to break down. Liverpool have conceded just two Premier League goals under Arne Slot and the defensive metrics also stack up with the Reds offering up just 0.75 worth of expected goals per 90 minutes - the best record of any team.
Palace created just 0.22 worth of expected goals at Everton from open play with issues of creativity out wide causing big issues.
Tyrick Mitchell's wastefulness and lack of threat is holding Palace back. No player in the Premier League has attempted more crosses from open play (27) which shows Palace are working the ball into decent positions - but no player has more unsuccessful crosses from open play (20) than Mitchell.
He's a solid left-back being tried in a position which just isn't him. Oliver Glasner needs to fix that.
My advice would be to keep it very simple here and back Liverpool to win and under 4.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
No defender in the Premier League since the start of last season has scored more (6) or has a higher expected goals total (5.57) than deadly Arsenal centre-back Gabriel Magalhaes.
He just has that look in his eye that nothing means more to him than scoring goals for Arsenal. I love his mentality when he goes up for corners. It's not a token effort - he's heading up there to score a goal.
Southampton have conceded six goals already this term from set pieces and that area of weakness will be exploited by the best in the business from such situations. The 14/1 with Sky Bet first goalscorer price is most certainly a runner.
Wolves have taken just one point from their last nine Premier League games yet there is hardly any noise around the future of Gary O'Neil. Why is that?
Well, performances - despite a horrendous run of fixtures - are holding up and there is confidence in the air that results will start to pick up if they continue to perform with the same ethos in calmer waters.
Wolves' opponents have had a shot conversion against them of 20 per cent this season, with teams scoring 16 goals from 81 shots. That is a freakish return that points to a lot of variance going against them as usually a team competing in mid-table of the Premier League can expect a shot-conversion rate of around 10 per cent against them.
I think this is where Wolves' luck will change.
I've got Brentford rated around the same projected points this season as Wolves so a tight encounter is expected, which means - at the prices - the away win is the value call at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
Leicester are going to get a good thumping by a team soon enough if they continue to post such miserable performances. This looks a team lacking ideas and one happy to soak up pressure playing very deep.
Steve Cooper's team have faced the most shots in the Premier League (114) and posted the fewest shots - it equates to a shot difference of -62 - the worst in the Premier League.
Meanwhile, only Man City (115) and Tottenham (110) have posted more shots in the Premier League this season than Bournemouth, who will ask questions of the Foxes from the first whistle. In the last 33 games only Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City have a higher first-half shots average than the dangerous Cherries (7.52), who are notoriously fast starters.
With that in mind, Antoine Semenyo, who has had 28 shots already in the Premier League - only Erling Haaland has more - looks a tasty price at Evens to have one or more first-half shots on target.
Marco Silva's record against Pep Guardiola is extraordinary - he's 0-13, losing every game.
His teams have managed to score at least once in seven of the last nine fixtures against Man City though and Guardiola's boys are showing more vulnerability at the back. City have now conceded at least once in 17 of their last 24 home matches, including to teams like Luton, Wolves, Burnley, Brentford, Ipswich and Watford.
Fulham are playing with confidence and are unbeaten in 90 minutes across seven games now. Beating Nottingham Forest and Newcastle back-to-back is an impressive feat. They can add to the scoring.
City to win and both teams to score at 7/4 with Sky Bet is certainly a runner.
No team have made more substitutions than West Ham this season (30) which tells you all you need to know about how Julen Lopetegui is struggling to find his best XI.
And whilst the manager still takes time to find that out, they rate as a completely unbackable prospect, especially when priced up at 4/5 with Sky Bet for a home win.
Ipswich are a team I really like and are far from the finished article as they're going through a bit of an identity change by being harder to beat and defending a bit deeper. There were really positive signs against Aston Villa that the attack can be a threat at this level.
Jack Clarke was lively, Leif Davis created seven chances - which is a great sign - and Liam Delap bagged two goals.
They can avoid defeat at the London Stadium at Evens with Sky Bet.
Everton to receive more cards than Newcastle looks the angle here at 5/6 with Sky Bet - it's short but bordering on banker material.
Everton don't possess players that draw yellow cards off the opposition. They play with great directness and defend deep - teams like that tend not to see passages of play where the game is stretched and cynical fouls are given away.
Over their last 44 Premier League games, only 1.48 yellow cards have been shown to the opposition per game - only Sheffield United averaged a lower figure - with every one of their eight games this season seeing the opposition team carded fewer than two times.
Newcastle didn't pick up a single yellow card in either of the two meetings with Everton last season and only have picked up three in their last four meetings with the Toffees.
This opens up the possibility of Everton winning the cards race - a bet that has landed in 18 of their last 25 matches across all competitions.
Nottingham Forest won't be as welcoming as Brighton were last weekend for Chelsea, who showed great tactical understanding to pick their way through what was a mess of a Brighton defence.
Enzo Maresca is ticking along nicely with a team growing in confidence having won their last five games in all competitions. It's not perfect, far from it, but winning is a great habit.
Chelsea are fancied to edge this but Forest's defensive process under Nuno Espirito Santo deserves more respect than the markets are giving them here.
In the 27 games since his appointment, only Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool have a better expected-goals-against output than Forest (1.24 per 90) and they've only conceded two or more goals in five of their last 20 matches across all competitions. The under 2.5 goals line at 6/4 with Sky Bet should give punters a great run.
Manchester United make my job exceptionally difficult. I feel your pain, Erik.
Who knows which team will turn up at Villa Park? Even the manager doesn't.
But, this could be a great spot for United if they're at it.
Aston Villa expended so much physical and emotional energy on Wednesday night in a performance and result for the ages against Bayern Munich - a night that yet again showcased what a master tactician Unai Emery is.
But they might not have to be anywhere near that level to win if the United from the first half against Tottenham show up.
Just do the basics and you can beat this Ten Hag team.
The result market is a minefield but Youri Tielemans provides a betting angle. He is quickly becoming one of the best midfielders in the Premier League based on his early-season performances and he's 7/2 with Sky Bet to register what would be his fourth assist of the season already.
He looks in full flow playing in this role where he is given licence to join attacks and also be a playmaker from deep. His rising influence seen by the fact he's having almost 20 more touches per game than last season, completing 1.4 more passes in the final third and most importantly, is creating 2.2 chances per game.
Two high lines. Two attack-minded managers.
Bring your hard hats, this could get dangerously exciting.
It's a shame the markets are completely aligned with the prospects of goals. The over 3.5 goals line is trading at odds-on (10/11 with Sky Bet), so we have to get a bit more creative to hunt out a winner.
Step forward Dejan Kulusevski - a player who has rewarded followers of my tipping endeavours over the years and he's in the kind of form where he's a bet once again.
I love the role he's playing in this Tottenham midfield where Rodrigo Bentancur is providing the security at the base and Kulusevski and James Maddison are given licence to create in dangerous areas.
The Swede was phenomenal last weekend at Old Trafford, creating seven chances in the impressive win and scoring with a clever finish. The 11/8 with Sky Bet for him to score or assist is begging to be backed.
