Premier League: Manchester United's stats show how far they still have to go before they can get back to the top

Manchester United's defeat to Southampton shows how far they have to go, writes Adam Bate.

Louis van Gaal was insistent Manchester United were the dominant team. He even brought out that old insult about the opponents ‘coming for a draw’ – a line that sounds weak after a share of the points and worse after they’ve gone home with all three. United skipper Wayne Rooney promptly went further. “I think we deserved to win,” he told Sky Sports.

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Players and managers are entitled to put a positive spin on things, but this felt dangerously close to ignoring the obvious. For while, Juan Mata squandered two good openings as well as a more difficult chance, this was still the first time United have failed to register a shot on target since April 2012 at Manchester City. It was the first time they’d done so at Old Trafford since May 2009.

Those dates might surprise some given David Moyes’ record-busting efforts for much of last season. Indeed, it was something of a shock to discover Southampton had missed out on the fun and games – this was their first away win win against United since 1988. Curiously, Van Gaal’s side currently have the same number of points as Moyes’ version had managed by this stage of the season.

United fans are far more encouraged by the situation one year on and that’s not just because the trajectory has changed. The arrivals of Angel di Maria, Radamel Falcao and Luke Shaw offer cause for excitement, while the failures of others leave the Red Devils fourth and on course for a return to the Champions League.

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But despite the positives, this defeat is unlikely to have come as a huge surprise to supporters. Many will be aware they were riding their luck throughout an 11-game unbeaten run, never more so than against Sunday’s opponents in the match at St Mary’s when a 2-1 victory was scarcely deserved.

“I don’t think it was the worst United have played,” said Sky Sports pundit Gary Neville, but that assessment revealed more about the unconvincing nature of their form than the quality of this effort. Van Gaal’s team might be expensively assembled but it’s rarely looked like one in anything other than transition. This slip-up was only a matter of time.

The statistics on errors leading to shots reveal as much. Remarkably, while United are among the most error-prone teams in the Premier League, no other side has conceded fewer goals from mistakes. Van Gaal’s men were going unpunished and that was unsustainable. Worryingly, those mistakes are a direct result of their style of play.

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The Dutchman has placed huge emphasis on getting control of the ball back. The relentless crossing that was a feature of Moyes’ time in charge has been reined in with United down from top to sixth on that metric. Meanwhile, the possession statistics have gone in the other direction with the team up from seventh to second.

Thanks to the switch to a back-three, Van Gaal has the ball – now it’s a question of what to do with it. Unfortunately, there is a growing sense that he doesn’t really have the centre-backs suited to this approach. Even with Daley Blind among the defence, that was evident against Southampton. “They have problems building up the ball possession,” Saints boss Ronald Koeman told Sky Sports.

Penetration through the pitch has been an issue and while the return of Michael Carrick has helped, the statistics highlight the fact that much of their possession has been in deep areas. Only Swansea have made more passes in their own half with United making 567 more than Chelsea. But in the final third, the league leaders have made 891 more passes than Van Gaal’s team.

Angel di Maria has that ability to carry the ball forwards and break through the defensive lines but when used in an advanced role as he was against Southampton, the challenge is getting the Argentine on the ball in the first place. For all the big-name arrivals, United’s shots-per-game numbers are actually down on last season.

It’s indicative of sterile domination and leaves United reliant on their quality forwards being more efficient than their rivals. With the likes of Rooney, Robin van Persie and Radamel Falcao that’s a distinct possibility and it’s telling that while eight Premier League teams have created more chances only four have scored more goals.

All of which should emphasise just how much room for improvement remains. This curate’s egg of a team cannot hope to compete for the title over 38 games. Nevertheless, such is the quality within the ranks that a return to the top four looks possible. However, if they have to face many more teams as organised as Southampton, even that modest ambition could yet be scuppered.