Watch Brentford vs Everton and Chelsea vs Manchester United, live on Sky Sports this weekend
Sunday 28 November 2021 18:12, UK
Our betting guru Jones Knows thinks Chelsea will edge out Manchester United in a tight encounter. Check out his predictions and betting angles on Sunday's games.
The reality that Everton are outsiders for this encounter perfectly emphasises just where both these clubs are at. Brentford are 6/5 with Sky Bet for the win while injury-ravaged Everton are 12/5. Prices like that suggest that the market is expecting Brentford to finish above Everton this season - and it's hard to argue with that.
Everton have no wins from their last six Premier League games (D2 L4) and are bottom of last-six match form guide. They will head to west London with no Abdoulaye Doucoure, Demarai Gray, Richarlison or Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Since the start of last season, only 21 of their 63 Premier League goals have been neither scored nor assisted by one of those four - that's over 66 per cent of their total goal involvements missing for this game. Where are the goals going to come from? An Andros Townsend stunner, perhaps. That's all I've got.
Brentford have lost four of their last five, but their performance data remains strong - especially in the attacking metrics. In that period, only Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City have amassed a bigger total expected goals for figure than Brentford (7.67). Although they will yet again miss the influence of goalkeeper David Raya, their extra firepower in the final third makes a home win easy to fancy.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
James Tarkowski - suspended for this one - will be missed by Burnley.
Since the start of the 17/18 season, Burnley have been without Tarkowski on 12 occasions in the Premier League. They failed to win any of those games. You get the feeling an Antonio Conte team should stand up well to running the physical gauntlet at Turf Moor, something this Spurs side have traditionally done. Tottenham are unbeaten in the last five meetings in all competitions against Burnley, losing just one of the last 15.
They have won 1-0 on their last two visits to Turf Moor. A third could be on the cards for Conte, whose reaction at full-time to the win over Leeds had the look of a man who wants results over performances at this stage of his tenure. He can get one here.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Leicester at 8/13 with Sky Bet? No thanks.
The blip is becoming a longer-term problem for Brendan Rodgers. Where is the usual Rodgers fizz in their attacks? They could have played long into the night in the defeat to Chelsea without scoring last weekend.
But more worryingly, Rodgers' inability to sort out the defence should be sending the warning signs out to his bosses.
Since the start of March, only Newcastle have conceded more goals than Leicester (41) in the Premier League. One clean sheet in 18 Premier League matches is a tad shocking for a team with top-four ambitions. In that same period Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City have kept 11.
To me, it looks like the the spine of the team is perhaps entering a transitional period earlier than Rodgers expected. Kasper Schmeichel and Jamie Vardy's powers are diminishing. And it might get worse before it gets better with a familiar face plotting their downfall in the visitors' dugout. Of course, Claudio Ranieri famously spent 19 months as Leicester manager, leading them to Premier League title success in 2015/16.
He can lead Watford to a result playing the counter-attack style that achieved greatness at the King Power.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
BETTING ANGLE: Watford to win or draw (13/8 with Sky Bet)
For a team that have already beaten Liverpool and Man City (on penalties) this season, 9/1 with Sky Bet on an away win does seem a little generous here.
The Hammers are set up perfectly to cause City problems with their rapid ability to counter-attack and get behind defences. Tottenham, Southampton and Crystal Palace have all implemented that strategy this season against City and walked away with a positive result. And, let's be honest, West Ham are streets ahead of those three teams in terms of points picked up over the past two seasons.
Am I brave enough to get involved? It's whether I can forgive the Hammers for stinking the place out at Wolves last weekend. Michail Antonio and Declan Rice looked legless and the usual energetic supporting cast behind the striker lacked their usual creative spark.
There's also the Man City factor to consider. They purred like a Ferrari on Wednesday against PSG.
If they can restrict Neymar, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi to an expected goals total of 0.78 then what chance do Jarrod Bowen and Pablo Fornals stand?
The answer is: I'm not brave enough. City to edge it.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
This could be the last game Manchester United lose before Christmas.
Sensible and grown-up football tactics were employed in midweek against Villarreal and hey ho, a clean sheet was banked and their frightening array of attacking players took over in the final quarter. Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Young Boys, Norwich, Brentford and Brighton are all up next. United might just catch fire.
I can see United being hard to beat here, too. However, this Chelsea side just find ways to win. They are a machine.
I can swerve the 4/7 with Sky Bet for a home win though and go hunting for some juice in the player prop markets.
Chelsea's ability to find goals from all over the pitch has yet to really be taken into account by the markets.
Thirteen of Chelsea's 30 Premier League goals have been scored by defenders - no other team has had more than four goals from defenders.
There is an array of angles to consider in the shots and goals market for Chelsea's players. With Harry Maguire missing, United will be vulnerable from set pieces. That makes Antonio Rudiger (9/1 with Sky Bet), Thiago Silva (8/1 with Sky Bet) and Trevoh Chalobah (9/1 with Sky Bet) all runners in the anytime goals market. Rudiger, who loves a strike from distance too, has also managed at least a shot on goal in his last 11 appearances across all competitions and has had two shots or more in five of his last eight Premier League matches. That's a 5/2 shot with Sky Bet to happen again and is a great slice of value.
Reece James is also a must-back in the shots markets but this time in the shots on target selection. James is Chelsea's Premier League top goalscorer this season with four goals as the quality of his attacking play has catapulted to another level. He has a striker's instinct for goal from wing-back - just look at his effort vs Juventus in midweek. It was outrageous.
James has had seven shots on target in his last five games across all competitions and averages 0.8 shots on target per 90 minutes this season. Sky Bet have kindly priced up both the James and Rudiger angles as a very tasty 11/1 shot.
A price which is oozing with value.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
BETTING ANGLE: Reece James to have one or more shots on target & Antonio Rudiger to have two or more shots (11/1 with Sky Bet)
