"Without the ball, Ward-Prowse has taken his game to another level. His tackling data is hitting bewildering levels. Gareth Southgate will be watching."
Friday 31 January 2020 21:47, UK
What betting opportunities are out there? If anyone knows, Jones Knows.
With the absence of any Premier League games, we're looking ahead to the summer and adding another weapon to our ante post armoury, which is looking a dangerous beast.
Jamie Vardy (2pts at 16/1) continues to travel nicely at the head of the Premier League top goalscorer market but is getting hunted down by Sergio Aguero while Leicester to finish top six (1pt at 4/1) and Norwich to finish bottom (1pt at 11/2) are both looking strong investments. Jack Grealish (1pt at 4/1 to make the England squad) is also bringing a smile to my face with his current performance levels and it's that same market that has got my punting juices flowing again for this weekend's selection.
The performances of Southampton and James Ward-Prowse in particular have got me purring since Christmas. But the bookmakers haven't seemed to have noticed. That can only mean one thing: time for a punt.
Ward-Prowse simply has to be backed to make Gareth Southgate's England squad. I can push you towards the 8/1 with Sky Bet but I must add there are significantly bigger prices available elsewhere on the market. Do shop around.
Remember, whatever I tip, I back. We're in this together, comrades. Do check out the Profit & Loss record for full clarity on the results. Current returns are: +11.
A quick look at the Premier League form-table tells you all you need to know about Southampton's recent performance levels. Only Liverpool have taken more points than them in their last six games as Ralph Hasenhuttl has flipped the situation at St Mary's from relegation candidates to European hopefuls. Such is the constricted nature of the division, Saints are now just four points off Manchester United in fifth place.
A key reason in their charge up the Premier League has been the influence of Ward-Prowse - or "The Machine" as Hasenhuttl likes to call him.
The 25-year-old midfielder is the only outfield Premier League player to have played every minute of every game in all competitions - a statistic made even more remarkable by data that shows Ward-Prowse has covered more ground than any other English midfielder this season, averaging 11.7km per match.
No longer is the Saints academy product just an expert deliverer of a dead ball, he's a relentless ball-winning juggernaut in Hasenhuttl's midfield. His pressing and desire to win back possession for his team-mates is the epitome of what his manager wants from his players out of possession.
Without the ball, Ward-Prowse has taken his game to another level, especially since Christmas. His tackling data is hitting bewildering levels. If someone needs tackling, give Ward-Prowse a call.
In his last six Premier League games, the Saints midfield general has made 34 tackles; nine in both the victories over Chelsea and Tottenham and five in both fixtures against Crystal Palace, where he got the better of Wilfried Zaha when he had to switch to right-back, showing his adaptability. Only on nine occasions this season has a player recorded nine or more tackles in a game with Ward-Prowse responsible for two of those.
It's been his - and Pierre Emile Hojbjerg's - excellent recovery work in midfield that has helped Danny Ings to flourish and grab plenty of plaudits in front of goal.
Of course, what separates Ward-Prowse from your usual run-of-the-mill tough-tackling midfielder is that he can also contribute considerably with the ball, predominantly from dead ball situations. He's created the most chances of any Southampton player this season (36) - a figure that puts him 17th in the overall chances created list in the Premier League.
In terms of English midfielders, only Jack Grealish and James Maddison have made more key passes for their teammates. As set-piece specialists go, there are few more reliable and classy than the Saints midfielder and this mix of energy, consistency and quality will certainly have pricked the ears of Southgate as he plans for the upcoming friendlies against Italy and Denmark in March.
The way the bookmakers have priced up Ward-Prowse would have you believe Southgate barely knows anything about the player. That couldn't be further from the truth.
"We love Prowsey - I've been accused of being the father of Prowsey over the years," said Southgate when discussing his relationship with a player he's handed two international appearances to in his time as England boss, the last of which came in March last year. Additionally, Ward-Prowse only just missed out on making the Nations League squad in the summer as he was one of three players cut at the final stage.
Southgate also installed Ward-Prowse as his captain for England U21's European Championships campaign in 2015 - another sign that the England boss has a huge amount of faith and trust in Ward-Prowse's make-up as a footballer.
"A world-class deliverer of set plays," is another Southgate quote on Ward-Prowse that needs respecting when analysing his chances of making the cut. Nine of England's 12 goals at the 2018 World Cup arrived from free-kicks, penalties and corners while nearly 50 per cent of all goals scored at that tournament came via the same avenue.
With Southgate looking to play three midfielders in order to allow his front men licence to roam, much in the same style that Liverpool adopt, it's predicted he'll name up to eight midfielders in his final 23-man squad. In order for Ward-Prowse to be on the plane, he's going to have to nudge past at least three of the below players.
Here's how Sky Bet price them up to make the final 23:
One of my angles for fancying Ward-Prowse to force his way in is that it's very unlikely Southgate will want to take numerous No.10's to a major tournament. Two, maybe, but there's little chance of him selecting all four of Alli, Maddison, Grealish and Mount.
To negate the lack of a world-class deep-lying ball-playing midfielder in his ranks, Southgate has moved towards packing his midfield with energetic players that can move the ball quickly through the lines into his front men. Ward-Prowse fits that mould.
Maddison has yet to truly convince Southgate of his suitability and character for a role within his side while Grealish has been flourishing playing in a more advanced role for Villa and is untested at international level. Alli hasn't looked a natural when dropping deeper while Mount's form has nosedived in recent months.
There's further question marks about Delph's levels of performance this season for under-performing Everton which may suggest his place in the squad is under threat and the same could be said for Ross Barkley, Harry Winks and Declan Rice, who despite being Southgate regulars in the qualification campaign, aren't hitting the heights for their club.
It's ripe for a player like Ward-Prowse, who is in red hot form, to come up on the rails.
It's also worth pointing out that if Southampton continue playing at their current levels, they could finish above the likes of Tottenham and Everton this season.
And we've seen before from Southgate that current form outweighs reputation when selecting his troops.
Come on Gareth, do the right thing, get him on that plane.
Super 6 fixtures: Southampton vs Tottenham, Burnley vs Norwich, West Ham vs West Brom, Newcastle vs Oxford, Millwall vs Sheffield United, Reading vs Cardiff.
