Thursday 8 October 2015 14:16, UK
England must secure a victory against either Estonia or Lithuania in their final two qualifying games to guarantee a place among the top seeds for the Euro 2016 draw.
Roy Hodgson's side have already booked their spot at the showpiece in France next summer by winning Group E but are yet to be assured of a place in pot one in December's draw.
Here's the lowdown on the seeding situation…
How does the seeding work at Euro 2016?
The 24 teams who eventually qualify for Euro 2016 will be seeded into four pots of six for the draw in December. Teams will then be drawn into six groups of four.
Nations will be allocated a place in pot one, two, three or four based on their UEFA national team coefficient. This is a ranking which will be calculated in November, based on their results over the previous two and a half years.
Which teams have made it into the top pot of seeds so far?
Hosts France - who have not had to qualify for Euro 2016 - are the only team currently guaranteed to be in pot one for the draw.
European champions Spain will also be awarded a place in pot one, should they qualify. The same goes for Germany, whose high coefficient ranking means they'll be a top seed should they complete their likely qualification.
Which other teams can make it into pot one?
Realistically five other teams are battling for the remaining three pot one spots.
There are many different permutations but here's how each side could gain enough coefficient points to guarantee a pot one place (should they qualify)…
England need to beat Estonia or Lithuania to guarantee being in pot one for the Euro 2016 draw.
Portugal need six points from their final two qualifiers to guarantee being in pot one.
Netherlands need six points from their final two qualifiers to guarantee being in pot one (although two wins doesn't currently guarantee them qualification. See below).
Italy need six points plus two of the following results elsewhere: England to gain a maximum of two points, Portugal to gain a maximum of four points, Netherlands to gain a maximum of four points or not qualify, Belgium to gain a maximum of four points, Spain to fail to qualify, Germany to fail to qualify.
Belgium need six points plus one of the following results: England to gain a maximum of two points, Portugal to gain a maximum of four points, Netherlands to gain a maximum of four points or not qualify, Italy not to gain six points with a goal difference better by three goals than Belgium, Spain to fail to qualify, Germany to fail to qualify.
How does Netherlands' situation affect the seeding?
Netherlands' Euro 2016 qualifying hopes are hanging by a thread. Even if they win their final two matches, they need Turkey - who take on Czech Republic and Iceland - to suffer a defeat. Should Turkey pip Danny Blind's side to third spot in Group A, the door opens for Italy or Belgium to claim a place among the top seeds in France next summer.
What are England's chances of securing a place in pot one?
Very strong. Roy Hodgson's side have a 100 per cent record in qualifying so far. They did need a late Wayne Rooney free-kick to beat Estonia last October, but comfortably saw off Lithuania in March this year. A win against either of those sides over the next few days will hand England a place among the top seeds - and a welcome boost ahead of December's draw.
Can England still be a top seed without winning one of their remaining qualifiers?
Yes. But to be top seeds without beating Estonia or Lithuania England will be relying on results elsewhere...
If England draw both of their next two games:
They will need two of the following six scenarios to happen: Portugal to gain a maximum of four points, Belgium to gain a maximum of four points, Italy to gain a maximum of four points, Netherlands to gain a maximum of three points or fail to qualify, Germany to fail to qualify, Spain to fail to qualify.
If England draw one and lose one of their next two games:
They will need two of the following six scenarios to happen: Portugal to gain a maximum of three points, Belgium to gain a maximum of four points, Italy to gain a maximum of four points, Netherlands to gain a maximum of three points or fail to qualify, Germany to fail to qualify, Spain to fail to qualify.
If England lose their next two games:
They will need two of the following six scenarios to happen: Portugal to gain a maximum of two points, Belgium to gain a maximum of three points, Italy to gain a maximum of three points, Netherlands to fail to qualify, Germany to fail to qualify, Spain to fail to qualify.
You can see a full explanation of the coefficient permutations at www.footballseeding.com
