Each week, in The Debrief, Adam Bate picks out some of the underlying numbers that you might have missed. Here, he picks out Luis Diaz's finishing, Pep Guardiola's tactics, Adama Traore's end product and Cameron Archer's struggles…
Tuesday 24 September 2024 06:11, UK
The second highest scorer in the Premier League this season is Luis Diaz for Liverpool following his two goals in their 3-0 win over Bournemouth. All five of his goals this season have been rated as big chances by Opta, which is particularly encouraging.
Under Arne Slot, Diaz is making those runs from out to in that result in clear-cut chances, which is an exciting development. The Colombian's current hot streak has not been built on long-range shots that are unlikely to be repeatable on a consistent basis.
The average chance of Diaz scoring from each of his shots this season is 19.2 per cent which is around double that of his first two seasons as a Liverpool player and well up on last season. The opportunities that he is now getting are very different to what came before.
"They were really good finishes but it is also important what led to the finish," said Slot afterwards. He was referring to the work of the team as a whole but it applied to Diaz too. He ran in behind for the first before cleverly holding his position for the second.
Only Erling Haaland and Ollie Watkins have had more big chances this season and with Diaz having already surpassed his tally from two seasons ago, he is closing in on last season's total of eight goals. He could beat it well before Christmas at this rate.
It is some turnaround given that Liverpool were linked with Anthony Gordon in the summer and Diaz's future was under scrutiny. "His future is with us because I like what I have seen," said Slot in response. He and all Liverpool supporters like it even more now.
Ruben Dias had never had more than three shots in a Premier League game before Sunday. Against Arsenal, he had five in the second half alone. That was as many as Erling Haaland and more than any other Manchester City player. It was a problem.
Criticising Pep Guardiola's tactics is risky. He is the maestro, after all. And John Stones' late equaliser means City remain top of the table and favourites for the title. But it did feel as if Guardiola had the wrong players on the ball for much of the second half.
It was interesting to be in the press conference after the goalless draw with Inter in midweek when he offered a sarcastic response when questioned on a double change at half-time. "It is a new version of Pep," he said. "Now I make substitutions at half-time."
Here, he waited until the 70th minute to make a tactical switch and even that was to withdraw Jeremy Doku, with Savinho departing soon after. But the issue was Dias and Manuel Akanji lacking the subtlety to break Arsenal down, moving the ball too slowly.
Guardiola eventually moved Phil Foden deeper to receive the ball in the 90th minute but one might have expected Guardiola to react quicker to a changing situation given Mikel Arteta's dramatic tactical shift upon going down to 10 players. He got away with one.
It is no surprise that Adama Traore has registered 17 completed dribbles this season, second only to Mohammed Kudus. But some might be more shocked to discover that the Fulham winger is among the most creative players in the Premier League.
While Kudus is rarely criticised for a lack of end product, the phrase has dogged Traore's career. And yet, he bagged his second assist of the season in the 3-1 win over Newcastle on Saturday, setting up Raul Jimenez for the opening goal. It is a familiar combination.
In the 2019/20 season, Traore assisted Jimenez seven times when the pair were at Wolves. The only pairings to better that since are Harry Kane to Heung-Min Son and Kevin De Bruyne to Erling Haaland. The truth is that Traore does create chances.
Indeed, expected assists are a fairer measure of a player's creativity than actual assists given the latter is dependent on someone else's finishing. Traore ranks second behind Mohamed Salah for expected assists from open play this season, per Twenty3 data.
Criticism of Traore's end product has always felt a little over the top, failing to account for the fact that his astonishing speed makes accuracy more difficult and also overlooking the fact that many such opportunities were fashioned by him from nothing.
It is particularly harsh given that Traore, despite missing much of last season through injury, still ranks among the top 15 players in the Premier League for chances created from open play since his return to the competition with Wolves in the summer of 2018.
Now 28, there are encouraging signs of a greater maturity to his play, while he has also managed to retain that extraordinary explosiveness that had always set him apart from the rest of the competition. Maybe a reappraisal of his talents is long overdue.
Southampton created enough to beat Ipswich on Saturday but they remain winless after conceding a stoppage-time equaliser at St Mary's. Cameron Archer's failure to finish his one-on-one chance when one up means his wait for a first Saints goal continues.
It has been a difficult start for the striker having seen his penalty saved in the previous match against Manchester United. Russell Martin's side eventually lost that one by three clear goals but that moment was also a clear turning point early in the game.
Remarkably, Archer ranks eighth for expected goals among Premier League players this season despite the fact that he is yet to get off the mark since signing from Aston Villa. For context, the seven men above him on that list have each scored at least three times.
There are questions over Archer's hold-up play too - perhaps Ben Brereton Diaz would be a better bet - but his movement is good. If his confidence is not too damaged, hope remains that the goals will begin to flow. But points have been left out there already.
