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Premier League relegation battle: Newcastle, Sunderland, Norwich City and Aston Villa run-ins analysed

Premier League relegation run-in

As many as six teams are in danger of relegation from the Premier League as the season enters its final couple of months.

Aston Villa, Newcastle United, Sunderland and Norwich City are all in a bottom four that is currently five points adrift from the rest of the division, but Swansea City and Crystal Palace are not secured of their top-flight status yet.

We take a closer look at the relegation run-in and analyse who has the best chance of staying up…

The bottom six

Position Team Games played Goal difference Points
15 Swansea 31 -9 36
16 Crystal Palace 30 -8 33
17 Norwich 31 -22 28
18 Sunderland 30 -19 26
19 Newcastle 30 -26 25
20 Aston Villa 31 -36 16

Remaining fixtures

On paper, it appears that Palace have the hardest run-in of the bottom six. Of their eight remaining games, three are against teams in the current top six and all of those are away from home.

Villa's fixture list also doesn't look too kind. They have to play two of the current top six, as well as facing a resurgent Chelsea.

Norwich, meanwhile, will need to get as many points on the board as early as possible, because their final three games are away to Arsenal, at home to Manchester United and at Everton. They can't afford to leave it to the last minute.

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Alex Neil Manager of Norwich City looks on prior to the Barclays Premier League match between A.F.C. Bournemouth and Norwich City
Image: Alex Neil's side face Arsenal, Manchester United and Everton in their final three fixtures

Form

Villa have the worst form in the division at present and unless they can turn it around and go on the sort of run Nigel Pearson's Leicester City produced last season, their chances of staying up are virtually nil. 

Bottom six form

Team Last six games (Most recent first)
Swansea W L W W L L
Crystal Palace L L D L L D
Norwich W D L L L D
Sunderland D D D L W D
Newcastle D L L L L W
Aston Villa L L L L L L

Palace's form is not much better, but can at least take solace from the fact that their points total was handsomely bolstered by good results in the first half of the season.

Meanwhile, Norwich's surprise 1-0 win at West Bromwich Albion on Saturday, a result which saw Alex Neil's side move out of the drop zone, was their first victory in 11 Premier League matches.

And Swansea's 1-0 win against bottom-of-the-table Villa on Saturday was their third in just four league contests, including a shock victory at Arsenal.

Total games left

Newcastle and Sunderland have a game in hand on Norwich and Villa, which is an advantage in terms of the potential points to be gained, but could also be detrimental given the added fixture congestion it creates.

Palace could have 10 matches still to play this season if they beat Watford in the semi-finals of the FA Cup.

Potential remaining games (including FA Cup)

Team Remaining games
Swansea 7
Crystal Palace 10
Norwich 7
Sunderland 8
Newcastle 8
Aston Villa 7

Federico Fernandez (right) celebrates scoring Swansea's winning goal against Aston Villa
Image: Swansea have won three of their last four league matches

Injuries

The injury picture looks particularly grim for Newcastle and Villa, who both have a number of players sidelined. Andros Townsend, Chancel Mbemba and Papiss Cisse may have recently returned from injury, but Fabricio Coloccini, Cheik Tiote and Massadio Haidara are all still out.

Current injuries

Team Number of injuries (According to physioroom.com)
Swansea 2
Crystal Palace 4
Norwich 4
Sunderland 3
Newcastle 11
Aston Villa 5

Palace are also struggling, but not as badly. James McArthur is out for the rest of the season, although influential winger Jason Puncheon finally made his long-awaited return from injury as an unused substitute in Saturday's 1-0 loss to Leicester.

Norwich currently have four first-team players out, including Nathan Redmond, who picked up a knock in the 0-0 draw against Manchester City.

James McArthur says he will work hard to come back stronger from his injury
Image: James McArthur is out for the rest of the season

Sunderland are not struggling too badly with injuries, while Swansea have  only forward Andre Ayew out in the short term.

Conclusions

There is no dressing up the desperation of Villa's plight at the moment. They are 12 points from safety; their form is terrible; they still have to play Arsenal, United and Chelsea; and ultimately, it will be a huge shock if they stay up.

Gabby Agbonlahor and Ashley Westwood of Aston Villa show their frustration after Everton's third goal
Image: Aston Villa need a huge turn in form to stand any chance of survival

Newcastle's form is not much better, but they at least are in sight of safety. However, Rafa Benitez's side need to start winning games soon if they want to avoid being marooned along with Villa.

Norwich's win at the Hawthorns on the weekend, their first league victory since January 2, has given them hope of beating the drop. However, if the Black Cats win their game in hand, then the Canaries will be back in the bottom three.

Sunderland have picked up seven points from the last six games, which isn't a great haul, but it's more than the teams around them have managed.

And if they can keep that steady flow going, it may be enough to stay up, while they're also helped by arguably the easiest run-in.

Who do you think has the toughest run-in? Let us know using the message boards or by tweeting @SkyFootball

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