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Will Cardiff City's direct style succeed in the Premier League?

Cardiff host Newcastle live on Sky Sports on Saturday

Cardiff manager Neil Warnock
Image: Cardiff manager Neil Warnock has implemented a direct style

Every Premier League side presents their opposition with difficulties to deal with - but Cardiff will be a unique challenge for their rivals this season.

Neil Warnock's team clinched automatic promotion to the top flight with a distinctly direct approach in the Sky Bet Championship and the signs are they have no intention of straying from that formula in the Premier League.

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Almost 27 per cent of Cardiff's passes in their 2-0 defeat to Bournemouth on the opening weekend were classified as 'long passes' by Opta, the highest figure in the division.

Long passes - Premier League Matchday 1

Club Percentage of passes long
Cardiff 27%
Huddersfield 23%
Brighton 21%
Newcastle 19%
Watford 18%

Almost inevitably, that led to them recording the lowest passing accuracy and fewest successful passes in the league by a significant margin.

Cardiff were well below other Premier League sides for passing accuracy and successful passes on the opening weekend - a result of the long passes they played
Image: Cardiff were well below other Premier League sides for passing accuracy and successful passes on the opening weekend - a result of the long passes they played

That follows on from the trend of last season. Cardiff sent a league-high 26 per cent of their passes long, while their passing accuracy (59 per cent) and average total of successful passes (166) ranked as the lowest recorded in the Championship since Opta began collecting that data in the second tier five years ago.

To put those numbers into the context of the Premier League, Cardiff, on average, completed 495 passes fewer per game than Manchester City in 2017/18.

There is a clear contrast between Cardiff's passing style and Premier League teams
Image: There was a clear contrast in passing styles between Cardiff and Premier League teams last season

Cardiff are happy to play those long passes as it allows them to get the ball forwards and into dangerous areas as quickly as possible, though.

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"What do you want as a fan," asked Warnock last season when quizzed on his style. "Do you want to see shots on target or do you want us to pass the ball across the pitch on the halfway line?"

Do you want to see shots on target or do you want us to pass the ball across the pitch on the halfway line?
Neil Warnock last season

A good example of this in action is Cardiff's 'direct speed' stats. This is an Opta metric which measures how quickly a team moves the ball up the pitch in metres per second when they're in possession.

Cardiff's direct speed and percentage of long passes last season far exceeds even the most direct teams seen in the Premier League last season.

Cardiff's direct speed last season was quicker than any Premier League side
Image: Cardiff moved the ball up the pitch quicker than any Premier League side last season

Will it work in the Premier League?

There is, of course, more than one way to win a football match, and Cardiff's approach under Warnock has proven successful so far.

But will it work in the Premier League?

They may have struggled against Bournemouth but, historically, it appears Cardiff's tactics may just pay off in the long run.

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Watch highlights of Bournemouth 2-0 Cardiff

During the past 10 seasons, no side averaging under 65 per cent passing accuracy and under 200 successful passes per game have been relegated from the Premier League.

In fact, they've not even finished in the bottom six.

Successful direct PL teams since 2008/09 (under 65% pass acc, under 200 successful passes/per game)

Club Season Finishing position
Stoke 2008/09 12th
Bolton 2008/09 13th
Stoke 2009/10 11th
Bolton 2009/10 14th
Stoke 2010/11 13th

Cardiff's stats bear resemblance to those of Stoke City when they first came into the Premier League under Tony Pulis and caused so many problems for opposition teams with their long passes, aerial threat and physical approach.

The Welsh side may not have got off to a winning start, but there's evidence to suggest their opponents - including Saturday's visitors, Newcastle - will be in for a real test.

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