Our betting expert Jones Knows makes his Premier League predictions; Man City vs Aston Villa and Fulham vs Man Utd on Wednesday; watch Liverpool vs Burnley on Thursday, live on Sky Sports
Tuesday 19 January 2021 23:47, UK
Our betting expert Jones Knows is back with some midweek prediction action and thinks Aston Villa can make it a tricky evening for Manchester City on Wednesday.
Dean Smith's boys are back in match action this week after more than a fortnight off due to the Covid outbreak and I'm expecting them to continue where they left off, playing brave, attack-minded football.
Aston Villa continue to be underestimated by the betting markets, even in this game, and their performance data puts them right in the mix for a top-six finish. In fact, looking at expected goals, both offensively and defensively, it ranks them down as the league's fourth-best team.
Despite City's imperious form, Pep Guardiola's side look woefully short at 1/5 with Sky Bet for the victory. It's still not quite flowing for City in the final third to the levels that the markets have them priced up as. In their past two fixtures they've scored the first goal at crucial times vs Brighton and Crystal Palace when it necessarily didn't look like coming.
I want Villa on my side here. Unlike most teams that rock up to the Etihad Stadium, Smith's side don't play with fear and are working at an average of 15.9 shots per game this season, including registering 15 away at league leaders Manchester United and 18 in their crazy win over Liverpool.
I'm on the draw.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1 (12/1 with Sky Bet)
ALSO LOOK OUT FOR: Aston Villa to have 13 or more shots 11/2 with Sky Bet - read why here!
For all Fulham's plaudits, their efficiency in both boxes is holding them back. Since their 2-1 win at Leicester, they've scored just three goals - a league low for that period. And, both Tottenham and Chelsea let them off the hook somewhat in their last two games with some mediocre finishing of their own.
Unlike Spurs and Chelsea, Manchester United are well-equipped to punish teams like Fulham when given periods of dominance in games.
This can be seen through their shots on target metrics this season. No team have hit the target more than Manchester United (105). With chances likely to fall their way at regular intervals at Craven Cottage, backing them to have seven or more shots on target at 6/4 seems a smarter way of getting a positive United performance in your favour rather than taking a short price on the victory - one that should be achieved without much fuss.
The shots on target angle is a bet that has copped in similar fixtures against relegation-threatened teams like Newcastle, Burnley, West Brom and Sheffield United already this season.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 0-2 (8/1 with Sky Bet)
ALSO LOOK OUT FOR: Manchester United to have seven or more shots on target (6/4 with Sky Bet)
Burnley - the lowest-scoring team in the Premier League - have managed to score more goals in their last three games than the champions Liverpool. A weird season is just getting weirder.
Sunday's drab draw at Anfield was the first time in over two years that Liverpool have failed to score in a Premier League game there. And, this is the first time that Liverpool have failed to score in three consecutive Premier League games since March 2005 - almost 16 years ago.
When you need a goal or your confidence is drained, Burnley aren't exactly the most ideal of opponents. If you ignore the annual 5-0 defeat at Manchester City, Burnley have only conceded three goals from open play in their last 900 minutes of Premier League football. Sean Dyche will ask Liverpool to break his boys down if they can and will hope Nick Pope is in the same form as he showed in this fixture last season when Burnley walked away with a 1-1 draw.
This is a difficult encounter to find a betting angle in. You suspect any win will do for Liverpool, so a low-scoring win without conceding looks the smart play.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0 (6/1 with Sky Bet)
So, it happened. Sam Allardyce found a formula and has shoehorned players into playing his way.
Not only did they defend at Wolves in typical Allardyce fashion, especially in the second half, they carried a threat in forward areas with Callum Robinson offering an athletic outlet to play the counter-attacking style that Allardyce wants to be implemented. Matheus Pereira caught my eye too in a performance of real note. Allardyce has spotted his talent and given him a licence to play very high and central in support of Robinson. The interchanging between that front-line will give West Ham problems in this one.
The Hammers are unbeaten in five games now but remain a team to treat with caution, especially against deep defences. Burnley, uncharacteristically, gifted Michail Antonio the opening goal on Saturday which then allowed David Moyes' side to play more on the break and soak up pressure. The perfect scenario.
West Brom will offer much more in transition than Burnley did whilst also defending deep at the other end. I'm yet to truly be convinced that West Ham are a top-10 side in this league, therefore, the 4/7 for a home win looks short and I'm happy to get a confident Baggies onside in the double chance market, especially with Conor Gallagher likely to return in midfield.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1
RESULT: 2-1
Never have the chances of a team winning a football match hinged so much on the availability of one player. Many punters will have been waiting with bated breath, like me, for Brendan Rodgers' press conference regarding the fitness of Jamie Vardy. The line that the striker is fit to play was music to my ears as Leicester at 2/1 are a fantastic betting opportunity with Vardy fit.
Leicester are perfectly drilled to beat a ponderous possession-focused team like Chelsea. Under Rodgers, we have seen time and time again that the Foxes are far more effective in games when they aren't required to make the running.
Without possession, they are a dangerous beast on the counter as shown by winning six of their seven matches this season when having less than 50 per cent of the ball. Chelsea will fall into that trap here.
Chelsea quite simply can't be relied on away from home. They made such heavy weather in finishing off 10-man Fulham at the weekend with their creative players all looking devoid of confidence. The Blues have lost 10 of their 28 Premier League away games under Frank Lampard - a record that might just get worse come Tuesday evening.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0 (10/1 with Sky Bet)
RESULT: 2-0
