Gabriel Jesus has scored 63 goals in 139 games for Manchester City since his £27m move from Palmeiras, but the best is yet to come
Friday 12 June 2020 08:29, UK
Gabriel Jesus has been keeping himself busy during the coronavirus lockdown. His social media channels have shown clips of strength and conditioning work in his gym, sprinting drills in his back garden, and even improvised kick-ups against one of the interior walls of his house.
Manchester City will be pleased to see him trying to stay sharp, because when football does finally return, it will not be long before they need him more than ever. Sergio Aguero is not finished yet. But he turns 32 in June. With every passing season, a changing of the guard draws closer.
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Jesus has had to be patient. His incredible potential has been obvious from the moment he set foot in the Premier League at the start of 2017, scoring seven goals in his first 10 appearances, but a broken foot stalled that early progress and the enduring brilliance of Aguero has left him playing a supporting role ever since.
This season has been a lot like the previous two for Jesus. Almost half of his 39 appearances have come from the bench. And yet he has still managed to rack up 18 goals. The 23-year-old is on track to increase his tally on the previous year for the fourth consecutive campaign. When he does get chances, he usually takes them.
"I think the club bought an incredible, incredible young player at an incredible price," Pep Guardiola told reporters at Selhurst Park after Jesus had scored in a 2-0 win over Crystal Palace in October. "I have said many times, to compete with Sergio is maybe the most difficult thing. Sergio is incredible. He's a legend, an outrageous, amazing player."
Guardiola added "irreplaceable" to that list of superlatives a few months later. It's certainly difficult to argue otherwise after 254 goals in 368 appearances and four Premier League titles in nine years. But while Aguero's contribution to Manchester City's history may never be matched, there can be little doubt that Jesus is ready for greater prominence.
His overall record of 63 goals in 139 appearances doesn't look anything like as impressive as Aguero's, of course. But many of those appearances have come as a substitute, others from the flank, and yet if you break the numbers down in more detail, he is averaging a goal every 124 minutes.
It is a formidable strike rate, and a closer look at the statistics reveals even more compelling evidence of his goalscoring potential.
Since January 2017, Jesus ranks top among all Premier League players for expected goals per 90 minutes at 0.87. Aguero is next on the list, at 0.75, followed by Mohamed Salah, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Harry Kane.
Jesus does not start as many of the big games as that quartet - Aguero still tends to get the nod when City face top opposition - but the numbers are still indicative of his unrivalled ability to get himself into the right positions. They also hint at what he might be capable of with more playing time.
Those qualities mark Jesus out as a superstar in waiting, but his natural goalscoring ability is not the only factor in his favour when it comes to unseating Aguero. The Brazilian is a distinctly modern centre-forward, a player as devoted and determined off the ball as he is on it, and a perfect fit for the kind of pressing tactics Guardiola is known for.
Aguero adapted his game to fulfil those demands following Jesus's arrival in 2017, but given the age difference between the two, it is hardly surprising that he can't offer the same level of physical intensity. This season, Jesus has run more than a kilometre further than Aguero per 90 minutes. He has averaged 11 sprints per 90 minutes compared to Aguero's five.
Aguero has lost none of his killer instinct in front of goal, of course. He is in fact on course for one of the most prolific seasons of his glittering career. But he can't hound and harry defenders with the same ferocity as Jesus and as time goes on, the difference will only become starker.
Just as significant, of course, is the fact that while Aguero is approaching the latter stages of his career, there is still so much more to come from Jesus. He has four seasons of Premier League experience under his belt but he only turned 23 last week and his peak is still in front of him.
"He's young and he can improve," added Guardiola in October. "We can expect that, with his mentality, he will always have success. He is so hungry. He is a competitor. He wants to become an important striker around the world and we are lucky to have him."
It is perhaps a consequence of working in the shadow of a legend that Jesus is rarely mentioned in discussions around the world's best young players. But his quality is certainly not lost on Guardiola. When the time finally comes for Aguero to take a back seat, when City are finally tasked with replacing the irreplaceable, Gabriel Jesus will be ready.
