Watch Norwich vs Leeds, Aston Villa vs West Ham and Wolves vs Everton all on Sky Sports
Tuesday 2 November 2021 09:16, UK
Fresh from correctly predicting Brighton would draw at Liverpool, our betting guru Jones Knows is back to preview Super Sunday.
In fixtures like these where Leeds face off against a genuine relegation-threatened outfit, it's most certainly worth backing them. Since promotion, in 12 fixtures against teams in the bottom five of the Premier League, Leeds have won nine, scoring 24 times in the process. Plus, with Kalvin Phillips back, Leeds are a different animal. The England midfielder has missed 13 Premier League games since Leeds returned to the top table and the club have lost nine of those and only just avoided defeat last weekend without him vs Wolves.
And, there is no doubting Norwich's tag as 'relegation threatened' - that might even be being a bit kind. Daniel Farke's team have made the worst start to a season in the club's history, taking just two points from their opening nine games - albeit three of those games have been against Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool. They are the lowest scorers in English football with just two goals. No side has ever scored fewer at this stage of a top-flight season.
Leeds always give you a chance so Norwich could improve their woeful goals return but the extra quality in the final third for Marcelo Bielsa's side, spearheaded by Raphinha, should lead them to maximum points.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
BETTING ANGLE: Leeds to win and over 2.5 goals (2/1 with Sky Bet)
"Qualifying for European football is very much part of our strategic plan," Aston Villa's chief executive Christian Purslow said in pre-season.
That may sound a tall order for a club in just their third full season back in the Premier League but owners Nassef Sawiris and Wes Edens are ambitious - outlined by a net spend of over £200m in the transfer market since promotion. Performances like the one at Arsenal and the collapse against Wolves, certainly don't bode well for Dean Smith, who must be a runner in the next manager to be sacked market at 14/1 with Sky Bet.
A repeat of the Arsenal showing here and West Ham, who are a better team than the Gunners according to all known metrics, will roll over Villa. As David Moyes said after the win over Spurs, he expects them to be challenging for the top four this season and the performance metrics suggest he's right to have that lofty target.
Since the start of last season, their haul of 82 points is only bettered by Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United. A statistic backed up by all the expected-goals data. West Ham, helped by having arguably the best midfielder in the Premier League on current form in Declan Rice, are among the elite, yet, they are not priced up like it by the markets in games such as this one. The 6/4 for an away win is too big to ignore.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
BETTING ANGLE: West Ham to win (6/4 with Sky Bet)
It must have been a long, hard week for the Everton players on the training pitch. You can imagine Rafa Benitez drilling them over and over again in defensive drills to get them absolutely organised for this game. The Everton boss will be demanding a clean sheet here after such a laughable defensive showing against Watford. He does usually get a reaction too. On the last seven occasions where a Benitez team in the Premier League have conceded three or more goals in a game, the next game has always seen an improved defensive showing with just five goals conceded in total across those seven games. In all seven of those fixtures his team didn't concede more than one goal.
When you mix a defensively focused and motivated Everton with a Wolves team that are struggling to create chances, a low-scoring encounter is on the cards. The under 2.5 goals angle has been covered by the bookmakers with just 8/13 available, so I've gone fishing for a bigger price. I'm happy to back the most likely outcome, the draw, with the chance of under 2.5 goals in the game at 3/1 with Sky Bet. Basically, meaning we're hoping for a 0-0 or a 1-1.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0
BETTING ANGLE: Back 0-0 and 1-1 correct scores (3/1 with Sky Bet)
