Arsenal or Manchester City: Which side is more likely to win the title?

Arsenal and Manchester City are closely matched in the Premier League title race, but what do the statistics tell us about how they compare?

The two sides go head to head at the Emirates Stadium on Monday Night Football with just one point separating them below surprise leaders Leicester City.

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With champions Chelsea out of contention and Leicester still unfancied to go the distance, the encounter could give us an idea of which side is better equipped for the title. And the Opta data, as of Monday December 14, already throws up some interesting clues…

FINISHING

City have a slight edge when it comes to finishing. They have only had fractionally more shots than Arsenal this season (193 v 188) but they have a higher conversion rate having scored 32 goals to the Gunners' 29, and a deeper look at the stats highlights their more clinical touch in front of goal.

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Their shooting accuracy of 53.9 per cent beats Arsenal's 50.5 per cent and it therefore comes as little surprise that the Gunners have missed more clear-cut chances, with 32 (the highest total in the division) to City's 26. In Olivier Giroud, Arsenal also have the player who has missed the most clear chances in the Premier League this season, although eight of those came during his poor run of form in August and September.

CREATIVITY

At first glance, there appears to be little to separate the two sides in terms of creativity, with Arsenal making 216 scoring chances to City's 209. However, the quality of those chances puts Arsenal way out in front. According to Opta, Arsenal have created 42 clear-cut scoring opportunities compared to City's 30.

Mesut Ozil's outstanding form has been the key to Arsenal's productivity. The German has created more openings than any other player in Europe's top five divisions and weighed in with 13 assists in 15 Premier League appearances. Even more impressively, 16 of the 65 chances he has created have been clear-cut. To put that number in context, it's more than six Premier League teams - including Chelsea - have managed all season, and he has already matched the total of last season's creative king Cesc Fabregas.

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Ozil's team-mates Santi Cazorla and Hector Bellerin are joint-third for clear-cut chances created with seven, while Manchester City's top contributor, by contrast, is Jesus Navas with five. City's relatively low numbers can partly be explained by David Silva's injury absence. The Spanish playmaker created 11 in 32 games last season, but even with him back in the team City might struggle to close the gap.

PASSING

While Leicester top the Premier League with an average of just 41.5 per cent possession per game, Arsenal and City both enjoy dominating the ball, with the Gunners averaging 59.2 per cent and the Citizens 57.6 per cent.

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They are closely matched for successful passes, too, with Arsenal at the top of the charts on 7753 and City not far behind on 7342. The Gunners' pass completion rate of 85.3 per cent also beats City's 84 per cent. Pellegrini's side are more prolific crossers, however, with 266 from open play the third-highest in the league compared to Arsenal's 205.

DRIBBLING

Arsenal and City are blessed with plenty of technically gifted individuals, but it's the Gunners who come out on top for dribbles completed, with 205 the highest total in the Premier League. City have only completed 159, and the stats show Wenger's men are less wasteful, too, with a dribble success rate of 58.6 per cent beating City's 55 per cent.

Arsenal's top dribbler is Alexis Sanchez with 45 completed from 78 attempts. The Chilean is a doubt for Monday's clash, but one man who will certainly feature is City's Yaya Toure, who tops the charts for City with 33 successful dribbles from just 44 attempts.

WORK-RATE

Data from the EA Sports Player Performance Index suggests Arsenal have a marginal edge over City for work-rate. The Gunners have covered an average of 109.1km per game this season, while City's average is 108.2km per game.

There is slightly more disparity in their numbers of high-intensity sprints. Arsenal are fourth in the Premier League with 8112, while City are sixth with 7911.

DEFENDING

Arsenal have fared better as a defensive unit this season, conceding just 13 goals to City's 17, although the two sides are level on seven clean sheets apiece. The Gunners lead their rivals for tackles won and interceptions, however they are still prone to individual errors.

Opta's stats show Wenger's men have made 16 mistakes leading to shots this season - the most in the Premier League - while City have made just four. In total, the Citizens have limited their opponents to just 138 shots, while Arsenal have allowed 170.

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But while the Gunners have faced more shots than City, they have restricted opponents to just 17 clear-cut chances compared to City's 22, giving them the lowest total in the Premier League. The stats show Petr Cech's impact in that regard. The former Chelsea goalkeeper has pulled off a string of vital saves for his new side, with only four of the clear chances they have faced resulting in a goal.

Joe Hart and City, by contrast, have conceded from 10 of the 22 clear-cut chances they have faced. Cech has brought greater order to Arsenal's backline, and he also has a better save percentage than his opposite number Hart (79 per cent v 70.7 per cent).

CONCLUSION

The stats suggest Monday's clash - and the title race in general - will be a fascinatingly close encounter. City have been more clinical in front of goal, but Arsenal come out on top in a number of other departments. There is evidence to suggest the Gunners are major contenders for their first title since 2003/04, but they'll need to show it on Monday Night Football.