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Saturday 9 November 2024 19:55, UK
After calling Bournemouth's win over Manchester City, our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide more Premier League insight.
Leicester are packed full of players who are capable of drawing yellow cards from the opposition.
In their last eight games their opponents have had, on average, three players booked per game and I'd expect that number to be threatened here.
My eyes have been drawn to Diogo Dalot at 4/1 with Sky Bet to get carded. He's likely to be facing the livewire Abdul Fatawu, who has drawn 16 cards in his last 3,313 minutes of action - a healthy strike rate of getting someone carded every 194 minutes.
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Facundo Buonanotte also likes to drift to the right and nine players have been carded for fouls on the teenager in his last 2,400 minutes of action.
Dalot, playing as a makeshift left-back, has been carded three times already this season. A fourth could be on the way.
Tottenham have conceded at least one goal in 19 of their last 20 Premier League home game which tells you all you need to know about their style of play.
Ipswich will have their moments if showing bravery with the ball, something they were renowned for under Kieran McKenna last season. It's unwise to be taking on Spurs in the outright as they have the ability to blow away a team in a 10-minute period such is their relentless attacking streak.
Ipswich can add to the scoring, though, and taking a swing at a couple of anytime goalscorer prices makes sense.
Omari Hutchinson has yet to truly show himself at this level but is dripping with talent and may just revel in the space provided to Ipswich on the break. He's 5/1 to score with Sky Bet.
Dara O'Shea - 18/1 anytime here - has missed a couple of big chances this season for Ipswich and you don't need to be a footballing genius to know about Spurs' issues from set-pieces.
This Nottingham Forest team are third in the Premier League on merit - it's no fluke when looking at the underlying data. This is a devilishly hard team to beat - but can they sustain it? Well, with these two centre-backs in Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo they stand a chance of a top-six finish. In nine games when they've started together, Forest have conceded just 0.7 goals per 90.
I'd be surprised here if Newcastle better that and score two or more, so Forest on the draw no bet market at 10/11 with Sky Bet looks a tempting price to consider.
I still think it's too soon for this Chelsea team to be consistently challenging those at the top who have seen it and done it in this Premier League for a few years now. There is a mental block for the Blues to overcome in these games, too.
Chelsea are winless in their last 25 fixtures with Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal in all competitions, scoring just 16 goals in those matches.
But Arsenal aren't flowing right now though - that's clear.
There were shoots of promise in midweek against Inter where they created 2.32 worth of expected goals and were unfortunate to lose the game. But even someone like me who is on them for the title is having their faith pushed to the limit right now.
Their threat from set-pieces remains strong, though, and this is where they could win this tight game. Gabriel to score at 6/1 with Sky Bet is of course the standout but Mikel Merino looks to have been signed with his physicality in mind. In six seasons with Real Sociedad he posted 60 headed shots to a per game average of 0.35 - a healthy return.
He has already scored a header this season for Arsenal and had a headed shot at Inter Milan. He's overpriced at 14/1 with Sky Bet to score a header.
