Predictions and insight ahead of the latest round of Premier League games; watch West Ham vs Leicester, Tottenham vs Man Utd, West Brom vs Southampton and Brighton vs Everton live on Sky Sports
Monday 12 April 2021 20:21, UK
After finding a 4/1 winner on Saturday, Jones Knows returns with his predictions for the rest of the weekend's action.
Sam Allardyce's side should be bouncing for this fixture - one that the manager will have a big circle around in his calendar. This is a winnable one. But, I cannot quite trust the Baggies just yet, especially against such a tactically astute attacking team like Southampton. However, with their season on the line, I am expecting them to have a proper go. The shots lines have got my attention.
It took West Brom just 11 shots to score their five goals at Stamford Bridge last weekend. A remarkable ratio considering they needed 85 shots to score their previous five goals which came spread across nine matches. The Baggies have averaged 12.5 shots per 90 minutes over their last four fixtures, so I was surprised to see Sky Bet going 5/1 for them to fire 15 or more shots in a game that should be set up for West Brom to produce plenty of attacking moments.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-1
BETTING ANGLE: West Brom to have 15 or more shots (5/1 with Sky Bet)
Those that base their betting decisions purely on the expected goals model should be having a large wager on a Brighton win here, although they will not be getting much juice in terms of price with Brighton well backed in the market at 5/4 with Sky Bet. When calculating expected goals minus expected goals against, Brighton come out with a +15.5 ratio this season while Everton, despite being on the cusp of European qualification, have a habit of labouring when it comes to xG, posting a -3.08 ratio using the same formula.
Although factoring key performance metrics is a big part of my analysis process, sometimes the market moves far too in favour of teams like Brighton that post extremely positive data. That's happened here. Everton, at 23/10 with Sky Bet, look worth chancing to take maximum points. Carlo Ancelotti's team are expertly organised in defence and despite not creating many chances, they know how to play away from Goodison Park, winning seven of their last 10 Premier League games on the road.
If you throw in Richarlison, who has scored six in his last 10 matches and was unlucky not to net vs Crystal Palace, to find the net into the betting mix, you build yourself a lovely 11/2 with Sky Bet to attack.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 1-2
BETTING ANGLE: Richarlison to score and Everton to win (11/2 with Sky Bet)
Fulham 0-1 Wolves - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 0-2
Man City 1-2 Leeds - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 4-1
Liverpool 2-1 Aston Villa - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 2-0
Crystal Palace 1-4 Chelsea - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 0-1
Sunday's predictions
West Ham 3-2 Leicester - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED 2-1
Tottenham 1-3 Man Utd - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED 2-1
Sheffield United 0-3 Arsenal - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 0-1
