Will Pep Guardiola's side live up to their price at the weekend?
Friday 30 August 2019 15:08, UK
Manchester City welcome Brighton to the Etihad Stadium on Saturday, and Billy Lumsden looks at how much disparity there is within the betting market.
Pep Guardiola's side are priced at a staggering 1/11 with Sky Bet to win the match, while the visitors are as high as 25/1 to steal all three points from this Premier League fixture.
The difference in the betting market is one that will raise a few eyebrows, which means it is important to break down which results, goalscorers and betting angles are more likely to happen in this clash.
Manchester City saw off Brighton 2-0 in this same fixture last campaign, which would give you lowly odds of 6/1 with Sky Bet. To put this into context, the odds are over half as low at 5/2 for Manchester City to score in the first 10 minutes.
Although, perhaps the most staggering angle to look at, which emphasises how highly the odds are stacked against Brighton, is the fact you can get the same odds of 66/1 with Sky Bet for Manchester City to win 8-0 as Brighton coming away from the Etihad with a 1-0 win.
Brighton, questioned at times for being too defensive last season, seem to be more free-flowing under Graham Potter, which means two things are less likely. They may not necessarily 'park the bus' and hold out for a goalless draw, although if you were to back that at 33/1, you would be brave. This could mean that they will leave more pockets of space for City to exploit, which could lead to a rout.
Linking to this, some of the markets can show generosity. Manchester City -5 (to win by six goals or more) currently stands at 8/1 with Sky Bet, while if Manchester City were to be stung by a Brighton opener and win from behind, like they did at the Amex on the last day of the 2018/19 season, Sky Bet are offering odds of 10/1.
In respect to goalscorers, Neal Maupay has been weighed up at 14/1, with other new recruit Leandro Trossard priced at 22/1 to net a shock opening goal. Shorter odds of 11/1 and 13/2 have been offered for Kyle Walker and Aymeric Laporte to score respectively inside the 90 minutes, proving the task in hand for Brighton.
Manchester City recorded 850 passes in this fixture last season and saw 80.1 per cent of the ball, so waiting for the passing markets to come up may also be a route to venture down to cover all bases.
One thing is for sure, Brighton must have 'a plan A, plan B and plan C' for this fixture, as Charlie Nicholas explained earlier on in the week, and have a mountain to climb if they are to pick up anything from this clash. Will Manchester City live up to their 1/11 price and see their opponents off with ease?
