Tuesday 17 January 2017 22:43, UK
Analytics have added a new dimension to scouting in recent years. In the next part of our Changing Face of Scouting series, experienced scout Rob Mackenzie examines the power of data as a tool to identify transfer window targets… and its limitations.
Even in the modern game there are wonderful stories that emerge such as the tale of Arsenal scout Brian McDermott happening upon Hednesford Town youngster Cohen Bramall. A chance meeting and a career transformed.
But football clubs do not like to rely too much on chance. So the development of data tools and the introduction of analytics departments have an obvious allure, raising the prospect of a more targeted way of working. They can cut out a lot of wasted time.
As someone with a background in technical scouting, Rob Mackenzie certainly sees the benefits. “Data is neutral, reliable and it allows you to assess a significant number of players in a time-efficient manner,” he tells Sky Sports.
“It provides a platform for you to identify players and benchmark expected performance levels. It also allows you to compare similar profiles, help establish what else is available in the market and therefore work out who the most valuable players are to your club.
“For example, if a club had been looking for an experienced centre-back for a relatively low fee this window, it would not have taken long to recognise that a player like Mergim Mavraj, who just signed for HSV from FC Koln for around £1.6m, may have represented a good fit.
“As a 30-year-old Albania international he would have been identified as quite significant within the market place due to an expiring contract and an ever-present record this season for a side renowned for having a tight defensive unit – joint-third best in the Bundesliga.”
While data can quickly flag up a player such as Mavraj, the key to quality scouting is to appreciate that this is just part of the process. “Having access to data and career biographies of players in competitions across the world is certainly empowering,” adds Mackenzie.
“But as with any resource available to you, it is important to acknowledge the level of insight that it can and cannot provide and place that into much needed perspective when making decisions. Anything in isolation tends to be insufficient.
“If I’m honest, I think I might have placed more emphasis on data alone in previous years but I have learned to understand that there is so much more to the probability of a player being a success at your club than their statistical output in isolation.
“In order to minimise the risk associated with signing a player the process should involve piecing together all the information you have collated in a manner that allows you to assess the suitability of a given player in direct relation to the remit set by management.
If I’m honest, I think I might have placed more emphasis on data alone in previous years but I have learned to understand that there is so much more to the probability of a player being a success at your club.
“In recent seasons we have seen clubs sign players with notable stats but it is important to remember there is a person behind the numbers. If their attitude towards a new challenge is not as reliable as their performance history, then the move may not succeed.
“I recall looking at a player who, among other things, scored 27 goals and provided eight assists in 40 games during his last season prior to a transfer. Since moving, however, he has followed that up with only seven goals and seven assists in 56 games at his new club.
“Is it that the player has suddenly become poor? Or is it more likely that he is experiencing a totally different challenge in his life? A new country, a new competition, higher expectations among better players and the pressure of a big transfer – maybe he’s struggling to adjust?
“Either way he has arguably fallen short of expectations. But while the player’s recent performance data might suggest he’s struggling, he is the same person and in theory he has the same level of ability as before, yet the outcome is remarkably different.”
It’s a reminder of the limitations of data. So while some analytics experts mock the maxim that ‘you can’t measure a player’s heart’, Mackenzie is more circumspect. Rather than dismiss its significance, he has come to appreciate the need to evaluate what’s inside too.
“When signing a player you are initiating a significant change in someone’s life,” he explains. “So it is almost as important to anticipate how they are likely to approach the new challenge they will be presented with as it is to understand their current level of performance.
“With that in mind, you aspire to gain an understanding of their character. What motivates them? What stage of their career are they currently at? And perhaps more importantly, what does a move to your club represent to the player from these perspectives?”
Ultimately, every factor must be considered. He adds: “Irrespective of a player’s statistical profile or positive live scouting reports if there is not a good fit across the board then the risk associated with a player not succeeding at your club can often be quite significant.”
