Friday 6 May 2016 09:56, UK
With less than two weeks left in the Premier League, two Champions League spots remain up for grabs - and four teams are still in contention to get them.
Arsenal are front-runners in the race to join champions Leicester and likely runners-up Tottenham and are all but assured of their place in the top four already.
Manchester City - whose Champions League exit ensured the Premier League's fourth-placed side would qualify for the play-off round - are in pursuit and would take a big step towards claiming the other space with a win over Arsene Wenger's side this Sunday.
However both Manchester United and West Ham - currently sitting fifth and sixth - have an opportunity to close in and make it an even tighter contest than it already is.
So who will make it? Here we weigh up various factors which could determine who plays among Europe's elite next season…
Remaining fixtures
It is far from certain that Arsenal and City will stay in the positions they currently occupy because United and West Ham both have an extra game to play.
Arsenal are currently on 67 points in third - the automatic Champions League group stage spot - and the three teams below could each finish above them - although Manchester United and West Ham could not BOTH do so as they play each other next Tuesday.
However, if Arsenal beat City on Sunday they will guarantee themselves a top-three finish and the other three sides will be left to scrap it out for fourth and a place in the Champions League play-off round.
United and West Ham will look to apply some pressure by winning their respective games with Norwich and Swansea on Saturday.
After that match against each other on Tuesday - the last competitive fixture at Upton Park - United host Bournemouth and West Ham visit out-of-sorts Stoke on the final day.
Arsenal finish with a very winnable game at home to Aston Villa, meaning a negative result in Manchester before then should not be too damaging.
City, meanwhile, end their campaign at Swansea who - much like Bournemouth and Stoke - are another side assured of a mid-table finish who have little left to play for.
Form
Some fans might not be happy with how things have gone at Arsenal but they have at least made a decent recovery after the collapse that ruled them out of Premier League title contention.
Having lost five games out of seven in all competitions at one point, they are now unbeaten in their last seven matches and have won four of those against Everton, Watford, West Brom and Norwich.
They aren't the only team of the four unbeaten in their last half a dozen outings, however, with West Ham winning three of their six most recent games.
The fact the other three games ended in draws is telling and might ultimately be their undoing. While Slaven Bilic's team have lost just one game in 14, they have had six draws in that run.
Now needing wins on a more regular basis, eclipsing their best run of consecutive Premier League successes this season - three - would be timely.
Manchester United have won six of their last eight league matches and have been greatly improved since the run of setbacks before Christmas which threatened Louis van Gaal's position.
City have been less consistent, losing their first league match since a 1-0 reverse against United on March 20 when they were beaten 4-2 by Southampton at the weekend.
Injuries
None of the sides in the running to seal a top-four place have significant injury problems, though United are currently missing Luke Shaw, Bastien Schweinsteiger and Will Keane.
Manchester City's David Silva and Pablo Zabaleta will both miss the rest of the Premier League season.
Arsenal have Per Mertesacker out with a hamstring problem while Carl Jenkinson is West Ham's sole absentee.
Betting
Arsenal are just 1/100 to secure a top-four finish, with Manchester City 1/4 fill the remaining Champions League qualification berth. United are given a 7/2 chance of climbing up from fifth, while West Ham's hopes are slender at 10/1.
The Hammers are, however, just 1/2 to beat Swansea on Saturday, while United are 4/5 to crank up the pressure on their neighbours by winning at Norwich. City are 13/10 favourites to win in Super Sunday's crucial clash, with the Gunners 19/10 to wrap up third spot by leaving the Etihad with all three points.
Conclusions
Arsenal
Arsenal know that three points from their final two matches will guarantee a spot in the top four - and a win over City would guarantee a place in the top three. Alternatively, a draw with City and a win over Aston Villa would also secure a top-three finish.
Two draws for Arsenal would guarantee a finish above City and West Ham and almost certainly see them finish in the top three unless Manchester United win their final three games by a huge margin.
If Arsenal can pick up four more points than Tottenham in the remaining two games they could yet finish second, but if they pick up one or zero points from the final two matches they are vulnerable to dropping out of the top four completely.
Man City
City could still finish second, but would need to win their final two matches and hope Tottenham lose both of theirs, while also making up nine goals difference on Spurs.
Two wins would probably give City third spot, as long as Arsenal don't beat Aston Villa by a huge scoreline on the final day.
Anything less than two victories leaves City vulnerable to being caught by the two sides currently below them. They could even finish as low as sixth.
Man Utd
United's destiny is out of their hands and they will be relying on Aston Villa to take points off Arsenal to have any chance of finishing in the top three.
Two wins for City means they can't be caught, but if City fail to win at the Etihad on Sunday, then top-four qualification WOULD then be in United's hands. In that scenario three wins would guarantee a top-four finish.
United could yet finish anywhere between third and eighth this season.
West Ham
Similarly, West Ham could finish anywhere between third and eighth, but their top-four fate is not in their own hands and they are relying on the teams above them to slip up.
However, Slaven Bilic knows that three wins in their final three matches would see them leapfrog Tuesday's opponents Manchester United and guarantee fifth - a Europa League spot.
If Arsenal beat Man City then West Ham know that three wins would see them finish in fourth.
Any other result on Sunday would - barring a series of very heavy victories - leave them relying on Swansea to do them a favour on the final day.
