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Friday 8 November 2024 18:01, UK
After calling Bournemouth's win over Manchester City, our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide more Premier League insight.
Brentford are a team that make my job easy. There is a simple formula to apply when it comes to analysing their matches - trust them at home, abandon them on the road.
And the same can be said for Bournemouth, making the case for a Brentford win an easy call to advise when assessing the 7/5 on offer with Sky Bet. It's bet of the weekend material.
The Bees have only lost one of their last 11 home Premier League games, winning four of the last five. Meanwhile, Bournemouth have just one away win from their last seven and have only scored more than once in one of their last 10 road games.
The Bees are a dogged and determined defensive outfit to break down when set up in their low block - and this is exactly the type of defence Andoni Iraola's side have problems against. The draw no bet option on Brentford at 4/5 with Sky Bet looks a cracker.
It's a shame the market has given much more respect to Fulham than usual here as I was hoping to nick another nice price on their win chances. Both teams are priced up at 8/5 with Sky Bet for the win.
Fulham are priced up as the better team with the away factor thrown into the mix so I can let them win at those prices.
Plus, Palace are improving.
Oliver Glasner has got his team functioning out of possession now with their press but goals are going to be a problem without Eberechi Eze. They have only scored eight goals all season anyway, with their games averaging just 2.10 goals per game. No team have created fewer big chances either (18).
Fulham aren't exactly blessed with a plethora of natural finishers, though, and six of their seven games across all competitions have fallen under the 2.5 goals line. That's the bet here at 5/6 with Sky Bet.
The prices look tight to me from an outright perspective with West Ham's greater threat in the final third rightly making them favourites at 11/10 with Sky Bet - but they aren't a team I'm comfortable investing in.
There is juice, however, in their corner line, where the inclusion of Crysencio Summerville to the West Ham starting XI should help boost their corner winning ability as the winger likes to drive to the by-line.
As we referenced last week, only Jack Clarke (76) won more corners last season in the Championship than Summerville (65). And, Everton do tend to ship a healthy amount of corners in away games of this nature as since Dyche took charge they have conceded 5.5 corners per game against teams in the bottom 10 of the Premier League away from Goodison Park. West Ham can be backed to get six or more at 4/5 with Sky Bet.
Premier League games are averaging record card numbers.
In 100 matches so far this season the average bookings points (10 for a yellow, 25 for a red) stands at 55 per match. When you consider the average yellow card count shown per game between 2014-2023 in the Premier League was 3.3 you can see the sort of spikes going on in this era.
The markets have reacted, of course, by pushing the card lines higher so it's still quite difficult to sniff out value in Premier League matches when it comes to cards. But this game does present an opportunity.
It's bound to be a feisty one with lots on the line, and the referee appointment is interesting too.
This is Thomas Brammall's first Premier League game of the season and he has a strong overall record for cards, averaging 55 booking points per game in his last 11 games at this level. He's shown three reds in that time, too, and dished out one last weekend to Hayden Hackney when on duty in Middlesbrough's 3-0 defeat to Coventry.
The 11/4 with Sky Bet for a player to be sent off does look appealing.
More of the same on the cards from Man City? I'd suggest so. The 7/10 with Sky Bet for the away win will tempt many in but I'll be swerving.
City's only away clean sheet since the opening day came at Slovan Bratislava and their inability to prevent high-quality attacks on their goal is where all their main problems stem from.
Pep Guardiola's team haven't got the tools at their disposal to fix their issues in dealing with counter-attacks, so Brighton are going to get big moments in the match - but so will City against this Seagulls defence.
If Lewis Dunk remains out, it's hard to trust them to defend with the level of organisation required to keep City at bay. After all, Brighton have conceded two or more goals in seven of their last eight games in all competitions. The goals may well flow at both ends in a corker.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Sky Bet looks a winner in waiting.
The predicted fatigue and squad depth factor has kicked in earlier than anticipated for Aston Villa, who have looked out of sorts in their last three games. Unai Emery always deserves respect with his teams in matches like this as the underdog, but if Villa bring the same level of attacking threat as we've seen recently, Liverpool could stroll here.
Villa look in need of a bit of a reset during the international break.
Arne Slot's Liverpool aren't consistently convincing during matches, but they have a knack of being able to blitz an opposition in a short period to take the game away from them. Liverpool to cover their -1 handicap and win by two or more goals makes sense at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
Leicester are packed full of players who are capable of drawing yellow cards from the opposition.
In their last eight games their opponents have had, on average, three players booked per game and I'd expect that number to be threatened here.
My eyes have been drawn to Diogo Dalot at 4/1 with Sky Bet to get carded. He's likely to be facing the livewire Abdul Fatawu, who has drawn 16 cards in his last 3,313 minutes of action - a healthy strike rate of getting someone carded every 194 minutes.
Facundo Buonanotte also likes to drift to the right and nine players have been carded for fouls on the teenager in his last 2,400 minutes of action.
Dalot, playing as a makeshift left-back, has been carded three times already this season. A fourth could be on the way.
Tottenham have conceded at least one goal in 19 of their last 20 Premier League home game which tells you all you need to know about their style of play.
Ipswich will have their moments if showing bravery with the ball, something they were renowned for under Kieran McKenna last season. It's unwise to be taking on Spurs in the outright as they have the ability to blow away a team in a 10-minute period such is their relentless attacking streak.
Ipswich can add to the scoring, though, and taking a swing at a couple of anytime goalscorer prices makes sense.
Omari Hutchinson has yet to truly show himself at this level but is dripping with talent and may just revel in the space provided to Ipswich on the break. He's 5/1 to score with Sky Bet.
Dara O'Shea - 18/1 anytime here - has missed a couple of big chances this season for Ipswich and you don't need to be a footballing genius to know about Spurs' issues from set-pieces.
This Nottingham Forest team are third in the Premier League on merit - it's no fluke when looking at the underlying data. This is a devilishly hard team to beat - but can they sustain it? Well, with these two centre-backs in Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo they stand a chance of a top-six finish. In nine games when they've started together, Forest have conceded just 0.7 goals per 90.
I'd be surprised here if Newcastle better that and score two or more, so Forest on the draw no bet market at 10/11 with Sky Bet looks a tempting price to consider.
I still think it's too soon for this Chelsea team to be consistently challenging those at the top who have seen it and done it in this Premier League for a few years now. There is a mental block for the Blues to overcome in these games, too.
Chelsea are winless in their last 25 fixtures with Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal in all competitions, scoring just 16 goals in those matches.
But Arsenal aren't flowing right now though - that's clear.
There were shoots of promise in midweek against Inter where they created 2.32 worth of expected goals and were unfortunate to lose the game. But even someone like me who is on them for the title is having their faith pushed to the limit right now.
Their threat from set-pieces remains strong, though, and this is where they could win this tight game. Gabriel to score at 6/1 with Sky Bet is of course the standout but Mikel Merino looks to have been signed with his physicality in mind. In six seasons with Real Sociedad he posted 60 headed shots to a per game average of 0.35 - a healthy return.
He has already scored a header this season for Arsenal and had a headed shot at Inter Milan. He's overpriced at 14/1 with Sky Bet to score a header.
