Analysis

Champions League knockout stage permutations, play-offs and 2024/25 league table: How many points are needed to qualify?

Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Celtic feature in new Champions League format; 36 teams form a single league, with each entrant playing eight different clubs, four at home and four away; the top eight sides will qualify automatically for the knockout stages

Thursday 12 December 2024 10:54, UK

The Champions League continues with a new format - but what do the teams need to qualify for the knockout rounds of the competition?

Instead of the traditional eight groups of four - with the top two from each group qualifying for the last 16 - a new 'Swiss-style' 36-league format has been introduced this season, with clubs sure to be looking at the mathematics.

The top eight sides in the league will qualify automatically for the last 16, while the teams finishing in ninth to 24th place will compete in a two-legged play-off against each other to join the top eight teams in that round of the competition.

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The bottom 12 teams - from 25th to 36th - will be eliminated with no access to the Europa League.

So to avoid an early elimination - how many points do you need? And what about the number needed to skip the play-off round and finish in the top eight?

Champions League knockout qualification explained

The Opta supercomputer believes 16 points from a possible 24 - so five wins and a draw from eight matches, or other combinations - would almost certainly be enough to finish in the top eight, which guarantees you a last-16 spot in the new year.

The data also believes 15 points - so five wins from eight games, or other combinations - could be enough to sneak into eighth place, with that points tally being enough in 73 per cent of Opta's 50,000 simulations of the league phase.

Fourteen points, so four wins and two draws, is unlikely to be enough for a top-eight finish - so the race to five wins is likely to be the target for the biggest sides.

Who qualifies for Champions League play-offs?

To finish in the top 24, which guarantees you a play-off spot at least, Opta believes 10 points - so three wins and a draw, or other combinations - will almost certainly guarantee you a place in that round.

Nine points - so three wins from eight games, or other combinations - could be enough to finish 24th, with that points tally being enough in 69 per cent of the simulations.

But just eight points - so two wins and two draws, or other combinations - runs the risk of elimination, with that points tally being sufficient in just 16 per cent of the simulations.

So teams will be targeting at least three wins from eight to give them the best possible chance of reaching the Champions League knockout rounds.