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Sunday 15 September 2024 13:57, UK
Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide his insight on every Premier League game and tips up a goals angle in the North London derby.
Due to Arsenal's selection issues in midfield, with no Martin Odegaard or Declan Rice, I can see Mikel Arteta treating this game like a Champions League knockout game away from home in a partisan atmosphere. Getting out of there with a point will be seen as a good result.
It will be low-risk football with the aim of silencing the home crowd at every opportunity, and I'm confident in Arsenal being able to frustrate Spurs based on their spectacular road record. Arsenal have taken 28 points from a possible 30 away from home in 2024 and are yet to trail on the road this year. It's a defence that has conceded just three goals in those 10 games.
The way to frustrate an Ange Postecoglou side is to defend in numbers and block the overloads out wide as Spurs aren't very streetwise at trying to break down low-block defences. They are becoming a team that posts lots of shots but their expected goals return doesn't quite match up - that points to an issue with creating high-quality chances.
I think Arsenal can send this game down a low-scoring avenue with the 11/8 with Sky Bet on under 2.5 goals representing some great value.
The predicted intense midfield battle is where my betting instincts have taken me for this one.
Newcastle's trio of Bruno Guimaraes, Joelinton and possibly Sandro Tonali are all in-your-face kind of midfielders that make a high volume of fouls.
If you total up their fouls-committed averages from last season, they are making 5.8 fouls per 90 between them. Even this season, Joelinton and Guimaraes have made 18 fouls combined in the Premier League.
I'm expecting similar averages for the trip to Molineux where I like the look of Wolves midfielder Mario Lemina's prices to be fouled up against that fouling frenzy of a Newcastle midfield.
He's drawn 15 fouls in his last 14 starts for Wolves, including two in the 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest last weekend, so the 7/2 with Sky Bet for him to be fouled twice looks a runner.
