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Thursday 9 March 2023 18:24, UK
Tipster Jones Knows has three Premier League best bets to attack this weekend at 33/1, 15/2 and a tasty looking 12/1 treble.
The walls are closing in on our beautiful profit for the season. A frustrating weekend to lose four more points to the bookmakers' satchels. Results aren't dropping but the performance levels are there. I am the Graham Potter of the tipping world, holding onto the underlying numbers in order to save my job.
Jarrod Bowen spurned West Ham's biggest chance in their 4-0 hammering at Brighton so that speculative 22/1 double for him to score and James Maddison to make two fouls in the Saturday late game vs Southampton was already down by the time Maddison took to the field. He made one foul and was booked. I've tipped up worse bets.
The 6/1 treble, where two points went in the bin, collapsed in pathetic fashion though as Wolves, who I fancied to make a very strong first half performance against Spurs and register at least two shots on target, failed to have any shots or touches in the opposition box. Shambles. Chelsea vs Leeds to go under 2.5 goals copped but that aforementioned Bowen chance at the Amex was his only shot on goal as we needed him to fire two shots.
Things will turn. A barnstorming performance full of winners is on the horizon. And with Cheltenham coming into view, where I will be providing a daily tipping piece for Sky Sports, this weekend would be epic timing in order to boost that punting tank.
Ben Chilwell's prices to make a significant mark in this match against his former club do stand out. He's had four shots in his last two starts, missing two good chances in both matches as he's been given lots of licence down the left. That makes the 33/1 with Sky Bet on him scoring first very appealing and for those that like attacking shorter prices, the 15/8 on him registering two shots - like he has done in his last two starts - makes plenty of appeal too and is part of my 12/1 weekend treble. See below.
Alexis Mac Allister has been thrust into a greater attacking role in recent weeks, playing off Evan Ferguson who likes to drop deep and provide team-mates with service. The World Cup winner has posted 14 shots in his last three Premier League starts to a backdrop of a whopping 3.10 expected goals, including his penalty against West Ham last weekend. The markets haven't adjusted to this goal threat, so the 15/2 with Sky Bet on him netting the first goal rates as a savvy value play.
Along with the Chilwell play, adding Bournemouth's offsides into the mix against Liverpool is a no-brainer. Liverpool's offside against numbers are starting to spike, especially now Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahim Konate are both fit.
Every opposition in the Premier League in their last five fixtures have been caught offside at least three times with Wolves and Palace racking up four offsides against. Bournemouth showed at Arsenal that their counter-attacking can be direct and full of pace in behind so I'd expect them to be posting a similar average akin to the last five Liverpool games.
That makes the 11/10 with Sky Bet for two or more Bournemouth offsides a great starting point for the treble.
If we get to the final leg, we'll have to wait for Sunday where Arsenal are fancied strongly to beat Fulham. Joao Palhinha is missing with suspension again for the hosts and his influence was sorely missed at Brentford last Monday while Aleksandar Mitrovic didn't look overly interested in that encounter.
Fulham's expected goals against record remains the worst in the Premier League (44.2), pointing towards high quality chances being offered up. You can't be that generous to teams towards the top of the Premier League as perhaps it explains why Fulham have taken just one point from eight games against teams in the top six this season.
Arsenal to win and under 4.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet should come home a winner.
