Match highlights of every Premier League game this season to be shown on the Sky Sports website and app; watch Leeds vs Chelsea, Wolves vs Man City and Tottenham vs Arsenal
Wednesday 11 May 2022 20:13, UK
Our tipster Jones Knows is back to preview a huge midweek of Premier League football and is backing relegation-threatened Leeds to grind out a draw at home to Chelsea.
On Sunday, Leeds dropped into the relegation zone for the first time since October 30. The days of beautiful Bielsa-ball are long gone. It's now time for ugly, win at all costs-ball.
Jesse Marsch should basically plagiarise Frank Lampard's work at Everton. Leeds need to do to Chelsea what Everton did to Chelsea. Frustrate, defend well, and take their chances when they come.
That task might be easier than the odds suggest too with Thomas Tuchel's team preparing for an FA Cup final while also being in a poor run of form. Eight points from their last possible 21 has left them just one point ahead of fourth-placed Arsenal. The Blues still need just four points to secure a Champions League place for next season but they will not be panicking just yet with home matches with Leicester and Watford to come after their Wembley trip.
The markets have set the goal-line at around three which leaves the under 2.5 price around 5/4 a bit too bulky to my eyes. Chelsea are not the free-scoring team of earlier this season. Just under 50 per cent of Chelsea's last 13 games have fallen below the under 2.5 goal line while Leeds will be focused on keeping things ultra-tight at the back in a bid for a result.
With absolutely nothing on the line for Watford bar pride, which has failed to provide a motivation for most of the season so looks unlikely to be generated now, Everton simply have to be backed. The problem is many people are thinking along the same lines and the price on an away win has collapsed into odds-on. I think we can be greedy though and bump that odds-on price up to 5/2 with Sky Bet by backing Everton to win by one goal. No team in the Premier League has lost more games than by a solitary goal than the Hornets with 12 one-goal losing margins falling their way. Meanwhile, Everton's last three wins under Frank Lampard has been by the odd goal.
You are thinking of skipping this match, aren't you? The dead rubber of all dead rubbers. But these end-of-season affairs with nothing on the line do have a habit of producing plenty of action as players are given much more licence to express themselves with no jeopardy on the line. Leicester have the attacking players to turn on the style against the Premier League's worst defence but also offer up opportunities up the other end. Their matches have seen an average of 3.09 goals score per 90 minutes - only Leeds, Manchester United, Manchester City and Liverpool average more.
With a potentially goal heavy game expected, backing the game to produce over 3.5 goals at 6/4 will do just fine.
I have a lot in common with most teams in the Premier League in that Manchester City have a habit of making us look clueless. In my quest to becoming a gambler extraordinaire I have tipped Pep Guardiola's boys not to win three times since December, including on Sunday against Newcastle. They have won those games by an aggregate score of 16-0. "You're getting sacked in the morning," was the chant from the Twitter trolls. It was hard to argue.
City's 5-0 victory over Newcastle certainly settles their nerves and looks to have set them on the way to a fourth title in five seasons. With the added backdrop of knowing a draw in either of their next two away games would still leave the title situation in their hands, it's really hard to make a case of this City side throwing in a stinker of a performance. They are just too professional and relentless for that now the Premier League is their only focus. In a game likely to be quite goal shy - Wolves' games this season have averaged just 1.97 goals per 90 minutes, a league low - I'm happy to back City to win without conceding.
Arsenal have the clear advantage in the top-four race but knowing they can settle for a draw in this spicy encounter might just become a problem. Tottenham have no other option. It's win or bust for them. With so many goals in their team and a manager who usually gets the job done in big games, the case for a home win at 11/10 with Sky Bet is easy to make.
Heung-Min Son rewarded our faith in the goalscorer market at Anfield as he scored his 20th goal of the Premier League season and is just two behind Mohamed Salah now in the Golden Boot race. Son is venturing into much more dangerous areas than in previous seasons as his partnership with Harry Kane continues to blossom. Arsenal have felt the force of Son's goalscoring abilities, conceding three goals to the South Korea forward in the last four Premier League meetings. Son has scored in the last two home wins over the Gunners and the 5/2 for him to repeat the trick is a bet worth following.
