Jones Knows provides his predictions and betting insights for all Premier League encounters. Find out what he's backing.
Sunday 16 May 2021 18:57, UK
Jones Knows provides his predictions and betting insights for all Premier League encounters. Find out what he's backing.
Palace's season is predictably fizzling out under Roy Hodgson - as it did last season when the club assured their safety. Only two wins against relegated West Brom and Sheffield United are all they have to show from their last 10 matches. I'd be against them here with Villa a decent odds-against poke at 13/10 with Sky Bet especially with Jack Grealish back.
Meanwhile, you sense that Wilfried Zaha will be relishing a change of direction this summer - whether that would be at Crystal Palace under a new manager or moving onto pastures new.
His tendency to lash out with a flailing arm is going to get him into trouble with VAR sooner rather than later. He was booked in stoppage time for an altercation with Jack Stephens against Southampton for such an offence. Villa will be out to test his nerve. With that in mind, the 66/1 with Sky Bet for him to be red carded has a chance.
BETTING ANGLE: Wilfried Zaha to be sent off (66/1 with Sky Bet)
I nearly spat my coffee out when seeing what price Tottenham were here. How anyone could seriously back them at 1/2 with Sky Bet - it has to be up there as one of the worst prices of the season against a team that have won on their last two visits to playing Spurs away from home.
I don't like trusting teams that rely on individuals. Cohesion, teamwork and spirit remains such an underrated aspect of trying to analyse the functionality of a team. And, as we've seen for months now, Tottenham's can be questioned even despite the removal of Jose Mourinho.
The brilliance of Harry Kane and Heung Min-Son continues to paper over the cracks at the club. Their deadly finishing means Spurs have the best shot conversion (15.3 per cent) in the Premier League despite averaging only 11.4 shots per game as a team - which is the lowest Tottenham have averaged in a Premier League season since Opta started keeping records in 2003/04.
This means there is value to be had getting Wolves very much on our side. The 6/4 for Wolves to win or draw is a solid price for those that like a short one but I'll be playing Nuno's boys to win the game by one goal at 7/1 with Sky Bet. A one-goal margin victory has copped in 10 of Wolves' 12 wins this season.
BETTING ANGLE: Wolves to win by exactly one goal (7/1 with Sky Bet)
One of the keys to making profitable betting decisions on player shots markets surrounds how confident said player is. If he's in-form, then he's more likely to feel comfortable in taking on the greedy shot option. The problem is, confidence can't be measured so it's a subjective area. However, it's a pretty safe suggestion to deem that Trent Alexander-Arnold is a confident boy at the moment.
He was the best player on the pitch in the win over Manchester United, grabbing an assist and registering four shots on goal. West Brom, with nothing to play for, should make this an open game of football which will be music to the ears of Jurgen Klopp. Shots should be on the menu and I like the Alexander-Arnold angle for him to have two or more on goal at 6/4 with Sky Bet in another high-scoring Liverpool away win.
BETTING ANGLE: Trent Alexander-Arnold to have two or more shots (6/4 with Sky Bet)
The way Sheffield United played in their 2-0 defeat to Crystal Palace, who have effectively put their cue on the rack for the season was an insult to what Chris Wilder had built at the club. It could be a long road back to the big time for the Blades.
Their toothless football shouldn't give an Everton defence that have shut out West Ham, Aston Villa and Arsenal in the past three weeks too much to sweat about. The 11/10 with Sky Bet for Everton to win to nil looks a solid play.
I'm also interested in the first goal method to be a header at 9/2. Here we'll have Dominic Calvert-Lewin on our side, who is only 21/10 to score a header outright, plus Everton's threat from set pieces with Michael Keane and Ben Godfrey.
JONES KNOWS PREDICTS: 2-0
BETTING ANGLE: First goal method to be a header (9/2 with Sky Bet)
Newcastle 3-4 Man City - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 0-1
Burnley 0-4 Leeds - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 2-2
Southampton 3-1 Fulham - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 2-0
Chelsea 0-1 Leicester (FA Cup)- JONES KNOWS PREDICTION 2-1
Brighton 1-1 West Ham - JONES KNOWS PREDICTED: 1-0
