Jones Knows: Crystal Palace to win at Newcastle, Kevin de Bruyne to bag from range, Eric Dier to get exposed
Sunday 22 December 2019 14:50, UK
What betting opportunities are out there? If anyone knows, Jones Knows.
Are you feeling it yet? I stuck my head out of the window yesterday morning in search of a dollop of Christmas spirit and drew a blank. All that hit me was rain. So much rain.
Searching for Christmas spirit can tip people over the edge. Have you been food shopping over this period? Talk about a pressure cooker of an environment.
With the shelves rapidly diminishing in stock with every minute that ticks down to the big day, no one takes any prisoners in their pursuit of Xmas dinner necessities - as I witnessed last year when it kicked off down the meat aisle when two determined and under-pressure shoppers almost came to blows over the final packet of pigs In blankets on the shelves. Shocking scenes.
That's why whenever I dabble in a pre-Christmas food shop - I'm that guy you see dressed head to toe in riot gear. You've got to take precautions.
This weekend's betting escapades will go a fair way to defining how many pigs in blankets I can afford on my Christmas dinner plate this year. If last week's results is anything to go by, I'd be a backer of Under 2.5 PIBs as my Burnley corners bet lost by one miserly corner and there wasn't even a hint of a Brighton red card.
I've got three angles to attack across an action-packed weekend of action. All at juicy prices.
One of my Christmas betting angles this year is to take on Newcastle at every opportunity.
Steve Bruce has got the Toon sitting very pretty on 22 points in mid-table but performance levels are more akin to a relegation-threatened team. Defensively they are astutely organised and difficult to break down but in attack, their numbers are severely worrying. Newcastle sit bottom of the pile in terms of expected goals this season, something that is very much backed up by the eye having watched their performance closely against Southampton where they won 2-1 but created very little.
The loss of Allan Saint-Maximin affected their attacking output further in their defeat at Burnley last weekend - a game where they failed to have a shot on target.
I'm willing to trust my money with the chances of Crystal Palace taking maximum points at St James' Park, especially at the prices offered for an away win. Palace set up very similarly to the Magpies in that they are defensively organised, don't take too many risks and are low performing in terms of their attacking output.
However, Roy Hodgson's team are dangerous playing away from home and have more quality - mainly due to Wilfried Zaha's influence - in forward areas.
It's easy to forget that Palace have recorded nine away Premier League wins in 2019 - only Manchester City and Liverpool have won more.
A Hodgson vs Bruce scenario doesn't scream goals, just four have been scored in Hodgson's four games as Palace manager against Newcastle. Therefore, adding under 2.5 goals to the Palace win angle seems like a sensible play, especially with 9/2 on offer which seems very generous. Get on.
If you were building the perfect midfielder then Kevin de Bruyne would fulfil plenty of your criteria.
Intelligent, tenacious, unselfish and two feet to die for.
His performance against Arsenal on Super Sunday was a timely reminder of his superhuman powers.
His technique was on full show last weekend at The Emirates - where he scored twice. Not many players in world football strike the ball like he does with such venom but with such epic control. As Martin Tyler referenced on commentary, De Bruyne makes things look so easy. Great players just do.
After a frustrating period of injury problems, De Bruyne has now started the last nine Premier League games for City - his best run since starting 38 successive games in 2017. This consistency with his fitness means he must be now playing at full-pelt, fuelled by that classy double on Sunday. In this kind of form, he has to be of interest for anyone looking for an anytime goalscorer bet over the Christmas period.
Pep Guardiola has even said himself he wants to see his maestro being more ruthless in front of goal. "He sees passes and actions that a normal human being cannot see. With special vision and assists. I speak about him scoring more goals."
With Pep's words ringing in his ears, I'm expecting De Bruyne to be at the forefront for City with Leicester in town.
In what is likely to be a tight game, Brendan Rodgers is likely to set his team up to pounce on the counter attack in a defensive make-up. With space at a premium it may take a strike from distance to break the deadlock, just like Vincent Kompany's memorable thunderbolt in the fixture last season, where, with Leicester keeping City at bay, 12 of City's 19 shots came from outside the area, the joint-most shots they had from outside the box in a Premier League home game last season.
Jose Mourinho has certainly waved his magic wand at Tottenham.
Spurs have won four of their five Premier League games since the appointment of the former Manchester United boss. The 'Humble One' has revitalised confidence levels and made Spurs difficult to beat once more. However, his persistence with playing Eric Dier in central midfield may prove a mistake in the long-term, especially partnering him in there with Moussa Sissoko.
It's a combination that is very muscular and Mourinho-like in terms of their combative skills but on the ball they slow the play down. To my eye, Dier has never looked comfortable in that role and has a tendency to switch off to potential dangers.
If those two start on Sunday, then Chelsea certainly hold the edge in the central midfield department with Jorginho, N'Golo Kante and Matteo Kovacic likely to be lining up in opposition. Kovacic, especially, has the game to test Dier's lack of mobility in the engine room.
The Croatia international has become a key figure under Lampard with his passing and dribbling ability from deep a huge asset. As Adam Bate points out in his terrific article about the importance of the midfielder, Kovacic has completed more passes than any other midfielder in the Premier League this season.
Kovacic's willingness to drive at opponents from midfield means he's a prime candidate for tactical fouls from the opposition - he's been fouled more times than any other Chelsea player this season (29).
Sunday's clash is likely to see Kovacic venture into the areas where Dier will be patrolling, which isn't good news for the Spurs man. He's already picked up four bookings this season from five Premier League appearances and in the only game he escaped a yellow - against West Ham - he made two fouls.
Yes. You can. It's winnable. Four players have won the jackpot this season. And remember, it's free to play!
