Wednesday 14 October 2015 10:18, UK
Will Greenwood looks ahead to the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals, including a tough day for Wales against South Africa.
A southern hemisphere team is odds on favourite to win but a northern hemisphere team can pull off the one-off shot.
The problem is for a northern hemisphere side to win this World Cup they will have to beat a southern hemisphere team three times. Wales will have to beat South Africa, probably New Zealand and then Australia. Ireland - Argentina, Australia, then New Zealand or South Africa.
We have street parties in the northern hemisphere when we beat them once. Our mind-set just does not say that we can do a hat-trick over them.
However they just have to bring out that old cliché: Don't worry about summiting Everest, just get to basecamp. Win the quarter-final first!
South Africa were pretty poor in 2015. They were stuffed at home by Argentina in the Rugby Championship but people are talking about them stumbling across their best team. Victor Matfield was in the team but his injury meant that Lood de Jager and Eben Etsebeth are playing very well. Jean De Villiers was captain in the midfield but now it is Damien De Allende who is fast making an argument that he is the best inside centre in this tournament alongside Jessie Kriel who reminds me of Andre Snyman - he is just vacuum-packed into his body, a ball of fast muscle.
We are heading into knock-out rugby and South Africa are hugely physical. They have the genetic ability to be forceful and physical, they just keep on coming at you.
For Warren Gatland to beat South Africa in this quarter-final, considering what has been going on in terms of them losing so many key men, well I think this would top Gatland's series victory over Australia with the British and Irish Lions in 2013.
Wales have gone through two huge pool games - one of them they won and they other they didn't but to come through those and find yourself confronted by Francois Louw, Duane Vermeulen, De Allende, Kriel, Bryan Habana, Wille Le Roux is going to be tough.
It is no surprise that the bookmakers will have South Africa as heavy favourites but that does not mean it is an impossible task - Gatland deals in the impossible doesn't he.
France have certainly upset New Zealand in previous World Cups. You want to ring Olivier Magne, Christophe Dominici, Philippe Bernat-Salles, Christophe Lamaison - it was an incredible performance in 1999. They were 24-10 down at half-time with Jonah Lomu on fire and Xavier Garbajosa was a turn-style. Then he comes out in the second half and plays like Pele. It was quite a brilliant comeback.
If 1999 was all about France winning the game, then I think 2007 was all about New Zealand losing that game. There was that sheer reluctance to change the way they were playing, to do something different when things were not going to plan. Just take a drop-goal - there is no shame in winning a game with a drop-goal!
France have the ability to really trouble New Zealand - they have a monster pack. Thierry Dusautoir only has to talk about 2011 and that 1000 yard stare when he led his team out. France have pace, they have Wesley Fofana, they have got Mathieu Bastareaud. They need to get the bounce of the ball and they need to get 3-0 up; 6-0 up. Something needs to happen for them because I felt that the way New Zealand dealt with the brilliant Argentina, to ride that storm - and there will be a storm from France - makes the All Blacks the hot favourites.
France came back into it when the Ireland injuries started to mount but Ireland kept on playing; they were sensational and deserved their victory
Everyone has talked about Japan being far more intelligent that just using guts and bravado to beat South Africa, so Ireland set-up France.
But Argentina are nobody's fool and they have sheer physical intensity. They have a tremendous set-piece with Augustin Creevy the hooker of the tournament. I think Tomas Cubelli is a World XV player at No 9 - he is right up there with Aaron Smith.
Nicolas Sanchez wears that No 10 jersey very well and shifts that point of attack beautifully. Then you go to the wings, you go to Juan Imhoff. Their comfort on the ball is quite sensational. They won't fear Ireland and in their mind they will be favourites after 1999 and 2007.
The moment for me in the World Cup was when Australia got a free-kick against Wales and went for the scrum. For so long the set-piece has been their Achilles heel. So a scrum, really?!
Sekope Kepu, Scott Sio and Stephen Moore have been outstanding in the front row, while Kane Douglas is flying just under the radar in the second row. Everyone talks about Pocock and Hooper but Scott Fardy has been sensational too.
Michael Cheika has made Australia dogs of war, and their defence against Wales epitomised that. Australia box really cleverly, Foley doesn't really defend in the line; they put Giteau in the 5m channel at lineouts. They just shift quietly - at the set-piece if you look at the backs they are just standing different people in different positions to cope to what they think is coming their way. Australia are very mobile and flexible in terms of what they can do - they are just fantastically clever sportsmen.
Scotland coming up against Australia are clearly coming from a distance back in terms of form and in terms of world ranking but I think Scotland are a really tough side. Scotland will play and I think Vern Cotter has really created confidence within the side this year.
Cheika has not made Australia unbeatable overnight and Scotland have to play the quick rucks and hope Laidlaw brings his kicking boots.
