The task for France is simple: win at home vs England, with or without bonus-point, and they will seal first Six Nations title and Grand Slam since 2010. Lose to England and title would slip from their grasp if Ireland beat Scotland; England could finish as high as third or down in fifth
Saturday 19 March 2022 16:40, UK
We work through all the permutations in terms of who can win the title, and where each side can finish ahead of the 2022 Six Nations' final day...
France and Ireland remain in the title mix, while each of England, Scotland and Wales could finish as high as third or as low as fifth in the standings.
Read through all the permutations below...
Les Bleus sit in pole position on 18 points heading into the final day of action, and the task for them is simple: win at home vs England, with or without a bonus-point, and they will seal a first Six Nations title and Grand Slam since 2010.
Lose to England, however, and the title would slip from their grasp for a third year in succession if Ireland were to beat Scotland at home in Dublin in their earlier kick off. France cannot finish lower than second.
In 2020, France beat England comprehensively in Round 1 but crucially gave up a losing bonus-point in the very final play after Antoine Dupont mistakenly kicked out too early - an incident which came back to bite Les Bleus as they lost to Scotland in Murrayfield (without a losing bonus-point) and then did not beat Ireland in Paris by a large enough margin, losing the title to England on points difference.
In 2021, France again beat the eventual title winners as they won against Wales in Paris, but an earlier 23-20 loss at Twickenham in the championship denied them a chance of the Grand Slam, while they blew their chance to win the title vs Scotland in Paris in their rearranged final game, losing 27-23.
There may be nerves and edginess, but France will be desperate to avoid another slip-up in 2022. Having negotiated potential banana skins to win in Edinburgh and Cardiff, as well as having beaten Ireland 30-24 in a cracking Round 2 fixture, there will be confidence at home vs a wounded England.
Andy Farrell's Ireland remain the only other side that can win the title heading into Super Saturday, but as mentioned, will need a favour from England at the Stade de France to do so.
Ireland sit two points behind France in the standings on 16 points and, with a six-point buffer between them and third-placed England, the Irish cannot finish lower than second.
A victory of any nature vs Scotland at the Aviva Stadium will temporarily move Ireland to the top of the table on Saturday ahead of France's game with England at 8pm, while it would also wrap up a Triple Crown success - which would mark Ireland's first piece of silverware since 2018.
Ireland can get to a maximum of 21 points were they to beat Gregor Townsend's charges with a bonus-point, but a Les Bleus win without one gets France to 22 points - while a Grand Slam would award France an extra three bonus points.
If France were to lose to England, even a losing bonus-point would not be enough to stop Ireland winning the title should Farrell's side beat Scotland, with Les Bleus finishing on 19 and Ireland on 20 or 21, depending on if they win with a bonus-point or not.
The highest England can finish on Saturday is third, but the lowest Eddie Jones' side could end up is fifth - which would mark a third time in five years finishing second-bottom.
England currently sit on 10 points in the table, level with Scotland and four ahead of Wales, with a far stronger points difference at +17 than the Scots (-8) and Welsh (-27).
If England win in Paris, the only way they can be shifted from third spot is if Scotland were to win with a bonus-point in Dublin and Jones' side didn't in the French capital, or if the Scots were to make up a points differential of 25 on England if both won - the latter of which is highly unlikely.
If Wales beat Italy in Cardiff with a bonus-point in Saturday's opening game (2.15pm kick off), as most would expect, that would take Wayne Pivac's side to 11 points, requiring England to gain at least a losing bonus-point from Paris to finish ahead of Wales. England would also need to maintain a better points difference.
Defeat for England at the Stade de France without a losing bonus-point would see them finish fifth if Wales were to win with a bonus-point (or by a large enough score without one to gain a better points difference than England) and Scotland were to win or claim a losing bonus-point in Dublin.
A losing bonus-point for England in the French capital would only see them surpassed by Wales if there was a 37-point swing as part of a bonus-point Welsh win, and by Scotland if they win or there was a 25-point swing as part of a losing bonus-point.
Like England, Scotland can either finish Saturday as high as third spot or as low as fifth depending on their performance and how other results go.
Having beaten England at Murrayfield in Round 1 and raising hopes again that they might finally challenge for a title, defeats to Wales in Cardiff and France in Edinburgh have killed any such chance.
Scotland sit fourth in the current standings on 10 points but with a worse points difference than England at -8, and they face a very tough ask travelling to face Ireland in Dublin.
It is made all the more difficult by the fact Ireland remain in the title hunt and also have the carrot of a Triple Crown on the line, after wins against Wales and England.
Scotland will be passed by Wales if the latter win vs Italy with a bonus-point and the Scots lose without one, while Scotland cannot pass England unless they gain something from Dublin, or there is a mammoth change in points difference between the pair - a losing-bonus point and England loss would see them leapfrog.
Scotland will finish fifth if they gain nothing and Wales win with a bonus-point, or if Wales win and makeup a 19-point swing in terms of points difference.
Sitting in fifth on six points currently, Wales are perhaps more likely than England and Scotland to secure a Round 5 victory, with Pivac's squad facing Italy at home.
A bonus-point victory would bring Wales up to 11 points, which would be enough for them to finish third if England and Scotland lose without bonus-points on the day.
Wales could remain in fifth even with a win if England and Scotland were both to win, while they would likely finish fourth if one was to win and one lose.
The Azzurri cannot finish any higher than last in the standings, having lost all five games to date and sitting six points adrift of Wales.
They head to the Welsh capital seeking a first Six Nations victory since February 2015, and are on a run of 36 straight championship defeats.
