Monday 4 April 2016 18:44, UK
Champions Cup predictions, a fly-half crisis at Connacht and the Chiefs dazzle down under; Stuart Barnes casts his eye over the rugby world...
1. Leicester City march on but their Celtic version, Connacht, came a cropper in Belfast on Friday night. The Foxes are still free from injury, not so Connacht.
Pat Lam's team of underdogs have captured the imagination of many rugby fans but the chances of going all the way and winning the Guinness PRO12 title have been damaged with the worst fly-half crisis to hit a team since 2011 when the All Blacks were forced to call Stephen Donald from his fishing to kick the goal to win the World Cup.
That was New Zealand, this is Connacht and the combined loss of Jack Carty, Craig Donaldson and Sale-bound AJ MacGinty is going to test their ability to hang on to one of the first two league positions and gain an all-important home semi-final.
Shane O'Leary did well but every time he stretched his tightening hamstrings in the last quarter of an hour against Ulster the whole of Galway held its breath.
2. On the subject of AJ MacGinty and Sale, let's think ahead to Europe. The pick of the European Challenge Cup quarter-finals has to be Sale v Montpellier. The French team have stormed into the top two in France while Sale are themselves in a fine flow of form.
Grenoble v Connacht is fascinating and nerve-wracking at the same time for the Irish province, while Gloucester and the Dragons provide local rivalries. Harlequins must be the strongest of favourites in their knockout match - London Irish have other priorities to put it mildly.
3. Onto the main events and the four Champions Cup quarter-finals. Let's look at them chronologically; Wasps v Exeter should be the most open of the quartet. Exeter rebounded from defeat at Saracens with a half-century against an in-form Worcester while Wasps kept the heat on the Devon team in the battle for the top two in the Premiership with a comfortable win against the Saints.
Outstanding in Europe and with the sharpest of cutting edges, Wasps are favourites but Exeter are no forlorn hope. They will have noticed Wasps' struggles at the lineout and will look to expose any flaws there as well as bringing their own outstanding pick and drive game to the party.
Wasps are the tip but not with much confidence against Rob Baxter and his brilliantly coached team.
4. Saracens have already lost to Northampton at their Barnet base but that was then, when the Six Nations was on and Saracens had many key men missing. Now they are back - as Exeter and Bath can testify - and strongly fancied to break their European hoodoo and lift the trophy.
The Saints are strong in the air and on the ground but lineouts are hardly a weak area of Saracens.
The breakdown becomes crucial to the hopes of those who love their upsets but with Saracens' pack at full pelt and Owen Farrell in the form of his life outside the controlling influence of Richard Wigglesworth, I will back the home side to restate their European credentials on Saturday and move onto a semi-final against the winners of the other all-England tie.
5. Will Leicester make it three out of four English semi-finalists? They looked vulnerable defensively against Gloucester but have a hint of the Super Rugby about their attacking game with the trio of Niki Goneva, Peter Betham and Manu Tuilagi threatening at all times.
Stade Francais have already lost at Welford Road and are in 12th place in the Top 14 (but safe from relegation) with nothing else to play for. They didn't have that mindset in round one and could be dangerous as a result but losing has become a habit and Welford Road is no place to break that sort of habit. Three it is.
6. Racing 92 lost by the single point to Toulon a few weeks ago but that was in Lille and not their scruffy little stadium where they have all the advantages of familiarity.
It might be ugly, it will be epic. Toulon are after a fourth straight title, Dan Carter has been signed to bring Racing immediate glory. The star man of the World Cup meets the best player on the planet last season in the looming shape of Ma'a Nonu, with Matt Giteau back for good measure.
It's the game above all others I am looking forward to this weekend... Racing to end the run and give Leicester Paris's top team in the semi-final.
7. On the other side of the world, did anyone NOT see the Chiefs? Never mind the All Blacks. Dave Rennie's team came up with one of the great attacking performances of Super Rugby history.
If Wales want to try some untested sorts against Warren Gatland's old boys during the summer tour, good luck. This is a brutal match and one that will be like a Test victory should Wales's midweek team prevail.
8. Oh dear... I have been too pleased with my Brumbies Super Rugby bet. They remain a good team but will have to come up with a tactical masterplan to turn around form with the Chiefs.
They were too open against a team where the field must be shut down and all speed removed from the field but they are nothing if not smart and with a clever coach and strong pack, hope springs eternal.... actually, no it doesn't but hey ho it's only a few quid.
9. The Irish provinces might well be dominant in the PRO12 numerically but they are struggling at the moment.
The big game between Leinster and Munster at Lansdowne Road was desperately disappointing with skill levels low and tempo downbeat. It was no classic in the game between Ulster and Connacht either.
Right now Glasgow look a great bet to retain their title, coming back to form and fitness with a final in Scotland. As for Ireland, a little less pre-ordained pattern and a lot more concentration on the basics of pass and support in the Chiefs mould would go down well.
Leinster, so long a superb attacking team, are so concerned with slowing opponents down they seem to have forgotten about their own attacking speed.
10. Relegation remains a haunting prospect for either Newcastle or, more probably, London Irish, but for the rest of the English rugby public it remains the flip side of the season. Success should be rewarded and failure on the field punished.
And for those who are money and marketing minded: Had we done away with relegation when men like Nigel Wray wanted it, the Premiership would not have Europe.
Sport is about more than a balance sheet as Newcastle or London Irish will deservedly find out. It shouldn't be the end of the world either. If well managed they can bounce back as Harlequins and Northampton did and Worcester are in the process of doing.
