Coach Jeff Reinebold outlines his five keys to the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles.
Reinebold and the Sky Sports team are in Minnesota this week ahead of Sunday's Super Bowl. As we get closer to the action, Jeff goes through where he feels the game will be won and lost...
Can the Patriots protect Brady?
Jeff Says - “Fletcher Cox, Timmy Jernigan, etc. They’ve got to do a great job of rushing Brady and the Patriots have got to protect Brady. If they can protect Brady and give him time, New England wins the football game.”
The Eagles have a ferocious pass rush that's been a large part of their success. Philadelphia had seven players with more than 20 QB pressures in 2017, more than anyone else in the league, and can attack from anywhere. Cox provides power and speed from the inside, but defensive end Brandon Graham leads the team with 9.5 sacks, and both Chris Long and Vinny Curry had 18 QB hits.
However, New England have had consistent production along the line. Outside of right tackle, where they are now onto their third-string RT Cameron Fleming, they’ve been solid. In fact, they’ve allowed three sacks or fewer in every game except Week 3 versus Houston.
There’s no doubt keeping Brady clean and allowing him to pick Philly apart will be the plan, but even if the defense hits home, no quarterback has been better under pressure this season than the 40-year-old (95.5 passer rating).
Jay Ajayi has to have a great game
Jeff Says - “Everybody is talking about Foles and yes, the quarterback is important, but why Jay Ajayi? Because Jay can establish the run, use the clock, keep Tom Brady on the sidelines. You want a Hall-of-Famer on the sidelines, not on the field. So Jay Ajayi is a critical, critical part of this.”
It’s been a crazy season for Ajayi. He started the year as a Miami Dolphin but was flipped to the Eagles for a fourth-round pick at the trade deadline, and since arriving in Philadelphia has progressively increased his workload - culminating in an 18-carry, 73-yard performance in the NFC Championship game.
Philadelphia had the NFL’s third-best rushing attack during the season, while the Pats allowed the 20th-most yards on the ground. It’s definitely an area the Eagles will look to exploit, as their offensive line is arguably the strongest position group on the team.
Ajayi could be the beneficiary. The Patriots allowed an average of 129 yards per game against teams with a top-ten rushing attack this season (Eagles averaged 132.2), but their run defense has tightened up over the last four games - allowing just 72.5 yards per game, and 3.2 yards per carry in that stretch.
The Eagles have to start fast
Jeff Says - “The Eagles don’t want to get behind and play from behind. They are not built that way, their quarterback doesn’t play well that way. They have to run the ball and they have to get ahead early.”
Every Super Bowl the Patriots have been in under Belichick has been decided by six or fewer points. Similarly, in every single one of those games, the Patriots have failed to score in the first quarter. There will be chances for Philly to get ahead.
Eagles head coach Doug Pederson and his players have made it clear that they’ll have to play a full 60 minutes to win the game. Not only does that mean fighting until the very end, but it means getting off to a fast start and staying aggressive.
In last year’s Super Bowl, the Patriots came back from a 25-point deficit. In the AFC Championship game, the Jaguars were criticised for taking a knee before the half rather than attempting to extend a 14-10 lead. The Eagles, on the other hand, have put the pedal to the metal all season. They will hope to come out flying.
The Patriots need help from all areas
Jeff Says - “Everybody knows the Patriots play the best situational football and complementary football. They are masters of every situation. They have to play well in the kicking game and they have to play field position.”
The Patriots are the ultimate "bend, but don’t break" defense. They were 29th in total yards, but the fifth-best team in scoring defense, allowing 18.5 points per contest. While it’s partly due to great red zone play, an important aspect has been field position. They force their opponents to start on average at their own 24.3-yard line, the best mark in the league.
Kicker Stephen Gostkowski has been almost automatic this season, hitting 37 of 40 field goals - his best percentage since 2014 - and can be relied on in clutch moments. Meanwhile, New England’s opponents have only made 70 percent of field goals against them. Eagles’ rookie Jake Elliott (26 of 31) will need to be at his best.
Turnovers
Jeff Says - “Whichever team turns the ball over the fewest times, normally, in a game like this, will win the game. You start talking about fumbles and interceptions - taking away the ball is vital to success in a Championship game.”
In the regular season, the Eagles were fourth in turnover differential (+11), while the Patriots were 11th (+6). New England gave the ball away just 12 times all season, but Philadelphia forced 31 takeaways (fourth-most), with 19 interceptions and 12 fumbles.
With their takeaways, the Eagles have taken advantage. They scored 103 points off turnovers, the fifth-highest mark in the league. Three of the last four Super Bowl champions have ranked in the top five in that category, and a huge play by the Eagles defense could swing the game.
Only five teams have won the Super Bowl with a negative turnover differential during the game - and amazingly, New England’s last two winning squads are included in that group. Against both Seattle and Atlanta, the Patriots won the game committing two turnovers while forcing just one.
Watch Inside The Huddle every day, 6.30pm, on Sky Sports Action with Neil, Jeff and a host of special guests.
@SkySportsNFL are in Minnesota all week - follow us for live video and a flavour of the madness.
For 90 minutes of Super Bowl LII build-up from US Bank Stadium with Josh Norman, join us on Sky Sports Action and Mix from 10pm on Sunday.
Sky Sports Main Event joins us at 11pm and the action kicks off at 11.30pm (GMT), including the half-time show featuring Justin Timberlake.