Wales v South Africa: Five key points ahead of World Cup quarter-final
Last Updated: 17/10/15 10:30pm
We look at five key points ahead of the quarter-final clash between Wales and South Africa at Twickenham on Saturday.
Wales would have hoped to beat Australia in the pool stages to earn an 'easier' route to the final, but as it stands Gatland's men are on a collision course with the Boks and potentially the All Blacks in the semi-finals.
The coaching staff won't be looking any further than the quarter-final showdown at Twickenham, though, and here we highlight five talking points at the two sides clash for only the second time in a World Cup.
History and momentum
South Africa have enjoyed a fair amount of dominance over Wales over the course of history. In 1999, Wales defeated the Springboks 29-19 in what was their first ever victory over the southern hemisphere side.
What followed was another 15 years of heartache for Wales as they failed to replicate the result, but in recent times the momentum has shifted in the direction of Warren Gatland's side.
In Nelspruit last year Wales were within a minute of victory before Liam Williams conceded a penalty try to hand South Africa the win. Fortunately for Wales they went one better the very next time of asking, beating the Boks 12-6 in Cardiff in a close affair.
The momentum is with Wales, but the tough pool stage will have taken it out of them. Will Greenwood says a win for the Welsh would represent Gatland's biggest coaching achievement after all the disruption the squad has suffered.
"For Warren Gatland to beat South Africa in this quarter-final, considering what has been going on in terms of them losing so many key men, well I think this would top Gatland's series victory over Australia with the British and Irish Lions in 2013," said Greenwood.
Locked and loaded
When Alun Wyn Jones led the forwards through action in a battle against England at Twickenham he earned high praise from Stuart Barnes in his column the following week.
"What a performance from Alun Wyn Jones," said Barnes. "The man is a colossus of our times."
Jones' physical approach has been instrumental in Wales' campaign, but this week he faces arguably his toughest challenge of the World Cup so far.
Opposite number Lood de Jager has been a standout player for the Boks during their campaign, scoring tries and winning man of the match awards throughout the World Cup.
Despite being eight years younger than Jones, De Jager has announced himself on the big stage this year.
"I think he's been outstanding," said Thinus Delport of the Cheetahs lock. "He's been the find of the season for the Springboks.
"The fact that he leads the tackle-count in games shows that he has an unbelievable work-rate."
The clash between the two will go a long way to deciding the outcome of the knock-out game.
Bok back three
South Africa's back three of Bryan Habana, JP Pietersen and Willie le Roux has been in burning form during the World Cup so far. They've shared nine tries and two hat-tricks between them in the first four matches.
In fact all nine have come from Habana and Pietersen who have been causing havoc in the group stages.
With ball in hand, the Bok back three are among the best in the world, but in defence they have shown frailties. The tackling of Willie le Roux in particular will worry Heyneke Meyer.
Kicking out of hand for South Africa has also not been the best out of the eight quarter-finalists according to Thinus Delport.
"Willie le Roux is a wonderful counter-attacker, but his tactical kicking has not been of a top level this season," said Delport, "That's something Wales will potentially look to exploit.
"South Africa will have to be very sharp in their decision-making around when they kick and what type of kick they opt for if they are to come away with the win."
Wales have selected George North on the wing, and his destructive runs have tested the best defences in the past. If South Africa kick poorly to him, and fail to shut him down when they do, he could cause trouble.
Breakdown and Barnes
Fetchers are becoming the all-important players in every team, with some sides opting to play two in order to dominate the breakdown.
Schalk Burger started his career as a fetcher for the Boks but now operates in the blindside role - though there is added confusion as the blindside flank wears the No 7 jersey in South Africa, and the openside wears No 6.
So South Africa are essentially playing two fetchers, and in Duane Vermeulen and Bismarck du Plessis they have another two players very astute at stealing the ball on the ground.
The contest at the tackle will be closely fought, but the Boks will have to be careful not to fall foul of referee Wayne Barnes, who is strict in that area.
In addition, Wales may not have opted to pick two fetchers, but in Sam Warburton they have one of the best in the world in that department.
If the Boks are able to neutralise Warburton, and do so legally, a place in the semi-finals will be one step closer.
Making of Morgan
Neither side is fielding the midfield combination that would have been chosen at the beginning of the year.
Jamie Roberts is the only survivor of the two centre pairings from Wales' win last November, with Jonathan Davies and Jean de Villiers out injured, and Jan Serfontein featuring on the bench at Twickenham.
In his column this week, Davies spoke highly of his replacement.
"Tyler Morgan is fairly new to the Wales setup but he impressed me a lot against Fiji," said Davies. "I thought he straightened the line well, which offered space for the outside backs to exploit.
"If Wales are going to make a semi-final in this year's World Cup, he will have to do the same against a formidable Springbok midfield."
Morgan is up against one of the most dangerous centre combinations in Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel, but his partner Roberts has a vast amount of experience at the top level.
If they are able to dominate the midfield battle, they will be able to starve South Africa's outside backs of opportunities to score tries.
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian De Allende, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Fourie du Preez (c); 1 Tendai Mtawarira, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 3 Frans Malherbe, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 5 Lood de Jager, 6 Francois Louw, 7 Schalk Burger, 8 Duane Vermeulen.
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Jannie du Plessis, 19 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 20 Willem Alberts, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Pat Lambie, 23 Jan Serfontein.
Wales: 15 Gareth Anscombe, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Tyler Morgan, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies; 1 Gethin Jenkins, 2 Scott Baldwin, 3 Samson Lee, 4 Luke Charteris, 5 Alun-Wyn Jones, 6 Dan Lydiate, 7 Sam Warburton (c), 8 Taulupe Faletau.
Replacements: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Paul James, 18 Tomas Francis, 19 Bradley Davies, 20 Justin Tipuric, 21 Lloyd Williams, 22 Rhys Priestland, 23 James Hook.