Monday 16 January 2017 13:35, UK
Ahead of the divisional round this weekend, Sky Sports reporter Richard Graves has made his picks from Arlington, Texas!
Richard will be reporting live on Sunday as the Dallas Cowboys host the Green Bay Packers in the final game of the weekend.
He will put his predicting powers to the test when he takes on Sky Sports analysts, and hosts of the 'Inside the Huddle' podcast, Neil Reynolds and Jeff Reinebold.
Richard: A repeat of the 2013 divisional play-off match - a game which saw Matt Ryan lead a final minute game-winning drive to see if the Seahawks.
This may well be another classic match-up - the Seahawks defence against the No 1 ranked scoring offence of the Falcons this season. This could be the game where the loss of Seattle's star safety, Earl Thomas is felt most keenly.
Make no mistake, Seattle's defence still has play-makers and a unit containing Michael Bennett, Bobby Wagner and Richard Sherman is not to be taken likely, but without doubt the loss of Thomas's rangy play-making ability in the secondary means this isn't quite the potent force we're used to. It's a loss I expect Matt Ryan and the Falcons to take full advantage of.
Atlanta has the added incentive of feeling somewhat cheated when they met in the regular season in Seattle. Another game which went to the final drive, only this time, Sherman broke up a pass intended for WR Julio Jones and won the game for the Seahawks. It was a play many observers felt should have been flagged for pass interference and means there's a sense of unfinished business heading into Saturday's clash.
It seems inconceivable that Seattle's defence will be able to bottle up Atlanta's aerial threat but the re-emergence of Thomas Rawls in last weekend's win over Detroit is cause for optimism. Rawls had his best day of the season and the best post-season rushing game in franchise history, finishing with 161 yards and a touchdown.
If they can establish the run, they can negate Atlanta's league-leading sack leader, Vic Beasley (15.5 sacks), control the clock and keep the high-flying Falcons offence off the field. If they can't win this battle, they'll likely have to keep pace with Atlanta's offence and that seems unrealistic. Falcons
Neil: They played in week six and Atlanta started really slowly but fought their way back. They lost on the Sherman-Jones play, but Dan Quinn said this week they're a better team now than they were then.
Seattle might also be better now they've rediscovered their formula, but I think Atlanta can put enough aerial pressure on Seattle. Plus they have the home advantage. Falcons
Jeff: So many storylines! Atlanta's offensive weapons versus a great Seattle defence. Teacher Pete Carroll versus student Dan Quinn. Julio Jones battling against Richard Sherman.
You talk about identity, well Seattle lost theirs, but found it again when they beat Detroit. But when it comes down to it, I think it's easier to stop the run, than stop a team as dynamic as the Falcons. So many weapons out there for Ryan. Falcons
Richard: A cold night in Foxboro' is a long way from the comfort of playing under a closed roof in Houston. The prospect of facing four-time Super Bowl winning QB Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, even less appealing.
The Texans have already made this trip once, back in week three, that finished in a 27-0 blow out to New England - and Brady wasn't even playing that day!
These are the bare facts heading into this match-up. The Texans have the No 1 ranked defence - a unit which has carried this team this season in the face of an abysmal offence steered by a $72m, fifth-year QB who has looked more like a rookie. Brock Osweiler is the Achilles heel of this team, not trusting star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to go and win the ball in the air, while committing far too many drive crushing turnovers (21 in total - 16 INTs, five fumbles).
The Texans scored 27 points in last weekend's win over Oakland but average a meagre 17.4 per game in the regular season.
Compare that to New England, who through the regular season averaged 27.6 points per game, had the no 4 ranked overall offence and the eighth ranked defence which gave up a little more than 15 points per game. Consider all of this alongside the knowledge that Bill Belichick will ensure the Texans star RB Lamar Miller is a non factor in this game and the conclusion is that this will be a complete mismatch. Patriots
Neil: These teams met in week three, the Patriots didn't have Brady, the Texans had J.J. Watt, and New England still came out 27-0 winners. Only one winner this weekend, too. Patriots
Jeff: If the Texans have any chance in this game, they need to get Brady off his 'spot' and rush down the middle. Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney are the guys to do it, I like this young Texans team but they're not quite there yet. Patriots
Richard: This is an intriguing clash. The Steelers appear to be finding their best form at exactly the right time of the year while the Chiefs maybe the most underrated team in the play-offs.
One thing is for sure, Arrowhead stadium is going to be loud! However, it could be that playing last weekend turns out to be a big advantage to Big Ben and the Steelers.
This game will have great match-ups across the field. Can the Chiefs stop Le'Veon Bell? How will the Steelers defence challenge Kansas City's tight end Travis Kelce? Who will win the aerial battle? Will Ben Roethlisberger and WR Antonio Brown shred another defence, or will the most opportunistic unit in the league (18 INTs and 33 total turnovers) prevail?
These two sides did meet in week four - a 43-14 rout for the Steelers. It was a game which was over by the end of the first quarter, with Pittsburgh racing into a 22-0 lead. A game in which Bell rushed for 144 yards, Roethlisberger threw five touchdown passes and the Chiefs lost the turnover battle.
It would be a surprise if this contest was so one sided but it's one the Steelers appeared primed to win again. Steelers
Neil: Pittsburgh won earlier this season, but they are a different team on the road. Arrowhead Stadium is the loudest stadium in the world, so it's going to be a factor.
If Justin Houston is healthy, he's a devastating addition to the Chiefs pass rush. I want to pick Pittsburgh, but with the home field, and the extra week of rest, I'm gonna go with Kansas City. Chiefs
Jeff: Kansas City are healthy, they've had a week off and they have Eric Berry and Marcus Peters - two of the best defensive backs in the NFL. They are loaded, and their special teams could give them the edge in this game.
It's a tough game to call. I was pleased with the Steelers defensive effort last week, but I still give the advantage to Kansas City, so I'll take them in a close game. Chiefs
Richard: The game of the week is surely the final game of the weekend. The red-hot Green Bay Packers head to Dallas to face the NFC's top seeded Cowboys in a rematch of their week-six encounter. An encounter which surely cemented rookie Dak Prescott's position as the starting QB in Dallas, and a game in which the Packers defence could not contain rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott. Ultimately it was a game Dallas won in Green Bay 30-16.
However, this is not the same Packers team and Aaron Rodgers is not the same quarterback he was in October. He's better now - much better! Since throwing his last interception in week 10, Rodgers has thrown 285 passes, 2391 yards and 22 TDs. Some scoffed at him when, with the team holding a 4-6 record, he said they would "run the table". Not only did they do that but they then brushed aside a much-vaunted New York Giants defence, hanging 38 points on them.
Don't be fooled into thinking this will be a one-sided match-up though. This Cowboys team is different to the one that won in Lambeau as well. Prescott, a rookie QB who won in Lambeau with just five NFL games experience now has three times that.
The Cowboys offence, which scored 30 points that day, did so without star receiver Dez Bryant in the line up. If Green Bay double team him the way they did Odell Beckham last Sunday, Dallas will have a range of options across the field.
Not least the diminutive Cole Beasley, who scored two TDs in October's win and we haven't even talked about Zeke Elliott!
A Cowboys defence which has been overshadowed by their prolific offence, caused four turnovers that day without CB Orlando Scandrick, and since then defensive linemen Maliek Collins and David Irvine have shone.
This has all the makings of an exciting, high scoring affair - two NFL heavyweights set to go blow for blow. One where the slightest advantage can make the difference and if WR Jordy Nelson (ribs) is unable to go, combined with home-field advantage for Dallas, that could be just enough. Cowboys
Neil: I'm not saying Green Bay are a one-man team, but they have the best player in the NFL right now in Rodgers. He makes me want to pick the Packers, but it's a team game still. Cowboys
Jeff: This team really hasn't played in three weeks. That's good for the veterans, but I'm concerned for the two rookies. This team realises what's at stake here, and they are focused.
I love Green Bay, I love Aaron Rodgers and I think they're a team that go to Dallas and win, but 95,000 people in that stadium, a healthy and rested football team that's focused. I just think the Cowboys will win, but it should be a phenomenal game. Cowboys
