Wednesday 10 June 2015 12:11, UK
Ben Coley previews the FedEx St Jude Classic in Memphis and fancies Colt Knost to contend at an ideal layout.
Put in almost any other slot on the calendar, you get the feeling the FedEx St Jude Classic would be a popular event among the best players on the PGA Tour.
TPC Southwind is certainly a popular course and a tough one, too, yet there can be no doubt that the timing of an event that comes along one week before the US Open means we have a weakened field, which requires 6/1 favourite Dustin Johnson to provide a truly top-class element to proceedings.
Billy Horschel, Webb Simpson, Ryan Palmer and Phil Mickelson are clearly superb golfers who've all done something encouraging of late, but all four are under 20/1 for just about the first time this season in a further demonstration of the lack of depth at the head of the betting.
On balance I'd prefer to take the speculative route and it's Colt Knost who heads my staking plan. The former US Amateur champion and world amateur No 1 missed the cut at The Memorial last week, but prior to that he put together back-to-back top-10 finishes on similar-style course in Texas.
At seventh in driving accuracy and 36th in greens, he's sure to find this more demanding test of ball-striking to his liking and could follow those former team-mates Rickie Fowler and Chris Kirk, whose recent wins must surely have given him cause to knuckle down.
I backed Shawn Stefani in this event two years ago, when the Texan led into round four only to fall to seventh as he failed to deal with the pressure of the situation. The Texan is in to 40/1 from 200s in that renewal and deserves to be, but instead of backing him I'd rather use the same sort of logic to support Retief Goosen at a three-figure price.
Goosen has a very decent record here, first of all, with five cuts made in six, four of which turned into top-30 finishes including third place in 2011.
Last year, Goosen could only finish 32nd yet at the halfway stage only Crane was in front of him, and given that it was his first visit in three years that means he's contended on each of his last two starts in the event.
It goes without saying that the 46-year-old is past his best and that injuries remain an issue, but Goosen has gone close on a couple of occasions this season as his consistency returns. And, like Stefani, Goosen qualified for the US Open on Monday which can only have given the South African a huge injection of confidence.
Of those in the sub-100/1 section, Chesson Hadley and Graeme McDowell are the two I like.
Hadley was 13th here last season on his first look at the layout. But what's particularly significant is that he produced such a finish despite being in dire form - the youngster had missed his previous four cuts and would go on to miss his next six.
That shows that he clearly took to the track and given that he arrives in markedly better form, with four top-25 finished and zero missed cuts in his last five starts, there's every hope he can contend. The fact that he was second in greens hit here last season suggests he might be able to step it up a gear.
Hadley has a top-15 finish at Copperhead and a couple more in the FedExCup play-offs to his name and looks a solid play against the favourites.
McDowell has clearly struggled since such a promising seasonal return in Dubai, but he has made every cut since Augusta and played nicely in spells during the Irish Open. The former US Open champion will see this course as an ideal platform on which to build some momentum, having finished 24th and seventh in two of his three visits.
Remember, when McDowell won the 2010 US Open he'd landed the Wales Open on his previous start so when it comes to peaking for the majors, he's the type who must feel that there's no better formula than winning. In a relatively weak field he's worth chancing.
Of the remainder, Jonathan Randolph makes some appeal given how well he's playing, but it remains to be seen how he'll respond to an awful final round when firmly in the mix in the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship, and Zac Blair is another rookie who could be inspired by fulfilling a lifelong dream and playing with Tiger Woods last week.
However, Blayne Barber is my final selection at anything around the 150/1 mark.
Barber is a promising young player who finds a lot of fairways and greens, and his recent form is good enough to suggest he might go well at a course I think will suit. His missed cut last time was just by a shot and before it, Barber had finished eighth in New Orleans.
His three top-10 finishes - no bad return in his rookie campaign - have come in Mississippi, New Orleans and down in Mexico at the Mayakoba Classic, another event which ties in nicely with this one. Having qualified for the US Open on Monday, he could be poised to confirm himself as another top prospect in the making.
