Mike Atherton told Sky Sports that a lead of 170 should be enough for England to defeat West Indies in a gripping third Test.
Alastair Cook’s side slipped to 39-5 at stumps on day two in Barbados but after dismissing the Caribbean outfit for 189 earlier in the day – James Anderson snaring 6-42 – currently hold a 107-run advantage.
And Atherton says England may not need to pile on the runs with the Kensington Oval pitch proving much more conducive to bowling than batting so far.
“England will hope for a lead of 170, just to make sure they’ve got enough,” said Atherton, after 18 wickets fell on Saturday in Bridgetown.
“They will fancy their chances of defending around 150 but they will want a margin of safety.
“I would still rather be in England’s shoes as opposed to West Indies’ but the hosts have nothing to lose and if they can knock England over they may make a good run chase of it.
“However, while the pitch is not a minefield, there is a bit for all the bowlers - it’s dry and crumbly so has just gripped for the seamers and there is also reverse swing. It’s kept everyone interested.
Combination
West Indies’ Jamaican strokemaker Jermaine Blackwood looked most at home on the troubling track, smacking 85 from 88 balls in the afternoon, an innings that featured 11 fours and four sixes.
England’s batsmen, in contrast, found runs incredibly hard to come by but Atherton says there were reasons why the visitors trundled along at 1.85 runs per over in the Barbados twilight.
The former England and Lancashire opener says that should change on day three, though, as Cook’s charges try to seal a series victory ahead of their summers showdowns with New Zealand and Australia.
“Trott is horribly out of form, Cook is that sort of player, and Bell was on a pair,” added Atherton. "So I suppose a combination of factors, including the pitch and some good West Indies bowling, [stopped England] being aggressive.”
"But what I think you will see on Sunday morning is some counter-punching, considering Ben Stokes is at the crease and Jos Buttler is to come.”
Watch day three of England’s third Test with West Indies, from 2.30pm, Sunday, Sky Sports 2 (channel 403).