...will this finally be Andy Murray's year?
Sunday 17 January 2016 14:54, UK
Ahead of the upcoming Australian Open, Barry Cowan answers five key questions about the first Grand Slam of the year in Melbourne.
Andy Murray will be aiming to win the tournament for the first time, but he faces formidable opposition and familiar foes in world No 1 and defending champion Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Stan Wawrinka.
With Murray riding a crest of a wave having won the Davis Cup for Great Britain for the very first time and expecting his first child with wife Kim, the four-time Australian Open runner-up will be out to finally end his Melbourne hoodoo.
So what does Cowan expect from Murray and other familiar names in the men's draw? And does he think 21-time major winner Serena Williams can retain her title?
Of course Andy can win it. But Andy, along with the others, are relying on Novak Djokovic being below his best and I believe [Djokovic] is going to be a better player this year than last year.
In terms of the mental aspect - he's pressing the reset button - he's got to do it all over again. From what I've seen, in terms of the tennis, he is two levels above everyone else.
For me, you would have to put Federer as No 2 because Roger reached the final at Wimbledon and the US Open and the O2 [at the season-ending ATP World Tour Finals].
I know that rankings say that Andy is No 2, but in terms of the big tournaments, Roger was there and I also think that Rafa [Nadal] will be a force this year so I would put Djokovic at one and then those three players not far apart as No 2.
Andy will get through the early stages, but it's how he gets through those early stages that will count.
If he starts with a bang and makes a statement in how he's going to play for the rest of the tournament, and I believe he will, then it's great, but you never know with Andy.
He's back with Amelie [Mauresmo] now so does he go out there and play with a swagger? That's what the big players do at the start of a tournament.
So long as he doesn't play Novak Djokovic, although they are in the same half of the draw. He's looking to improve and there were moments last year when he definitely took his game forward but I felt at the O2 he played so well against Djokovic in the round-robin because he had nothing to lose and faced no consequences.
In the final there were consequences and Novak is mentally better in the big matches than Roger.
If Roger feels great on the day and gets off to a lead then of course he can play from the front, but as soon as it becomes a mental battle or a physical battle then Djokovic is ahead of Federer by two or three levels. I'm not ruling Roger out, though, because it can go for him.
Rafa is playing well, but the reality is as we saw in that final in Doha, he is miles away from Djokovic at the moment.
I'm really positive that Nadal is going to have a good year - but does that mean he's going to win a Slam - no. The game has moved forward in the last three years, when he was last No 1.
The fight is there and there is also a bit of enjoyment in his game. He's climbed back up the rankings and is trying to close the gap. I saw and encouraging Autumn and start to the season for him.
With Stan [Wawrinka] he can go out early, but if he can get through to the latter stages then I think he potentially, if he is to play Novak, is more capable of beating him than any other player because he's done it [at the 2015 French Open final].
When Stan is hot, he is very difficult to beat.
The only head-to-head match-up that he doesn't like is Roger, so that's the interesting dynamics of the way the draw can go.
You've got Federer, who loves to play Wawrinka on a hardcourt, and then you have Djokovic who fears Wawrinka more so than some of the others.
Raonic? I think it's too early for [Brisbane winner] Milos Raonic. He will come to the fore in the second half of the year and to be honest with you I don't see anyone else coming through. The top five players are miles ahead of everyone else.
No, I don't think she will. I've always gone for Serena in every major of the last few years but I just can't pick her this time. I just think she's under-cooked physically and she's still suffering from what was a traumatic 2015.
Lots of positives, but right on the edge mentally. The loss at the US Open set her back and I think that if she did happen to come back and win it this year then I think it will be one of her greatest achievements.
As things stand I don't think she will win, so therefore who can? I think it will be [Victoria] Azarenka.
She plays well in Australia and has started the year superbly. She's a class act. Form is temporary, class is permanent and I just think she's almost back to her best form, but what we don't know if she is really back to her best. We will find out.
We will bring you all the news, views and reaction from the Australian Open starting on Monday 18th January.
