Friday 25 September 2015 10:49, UK
Dewi Morris says Stuart Lancaster has gone 'all in' with the midfield selection, and warns that it may backfire on Saturday.
If rugby were a game of poker it would be fair to say Stuart Lancaster has gone all in. He's shown his full hand not just to Wales, but to every other side in the competition.
In recent times he's talked about wanting to play a more expansive game, but when the first true competitive test arrived he has reverted back to the old fashioned England way. I'm sure Lancaster and his coaching staff are intimately familiar with the direction in which this team is heading, but from the outside that doesn't seem to be true.
For years the debate of England's midfield has drawn attention, and yet in the second game of the tournament we have yet another combination, and it's one of England's two biggest pool matches that the new combination will take the field.
More and more in the modern game, matches are being won based on the strength of the bench, and in my opinion, in the opening two games Lancaster has not provided enough cover in various areas.
It's fairly obvious what kind of basket Lancaster has placed all of his eggs in. With a combination of Farrell, Burgess and Barritt, it appears on the surface that the ball will not get much further than Barritt in possession. It's a game plan that will suit England who don't want the ball to get to every inch of the pitch due to Wales' superior fetcher options at their disposal.
The England back three have proven they score tries when given the ball, but that is unlikely to be the case at Twickenham on Saturday night. Sure there's a chance that Farrell is part of an elaborate double bluff and throws his first three passes to the wingers, but it's unlikely.
The likelihood is that England will keep the ball tight in the 10 and 12 channel and wait for Wales to infringe on defence so they can either kick for the corner or for poles.
There are two things wrong with it as far as I can see.
Firstly, it relies on the fact that your forwards win you the ball, and England's set piece has not been very strong going into this tournament. It's not by any stretch bad but if it's not firing properly then England are without options.
Secondly, what happens if Barritt goes off injured in the fourth minute? Farrell moves to 13 and Ford comes in at 10, but then England have very little room to manoeuvre with the game plan out the window and, of course, yet another centre combination.
Why has Henry Slade been selected in the 31? Why hasn't he been selected in this week's 23? He covers fly-half as well as both centre positions. On the bench you have two players who can cover fly-half, one of whom covers full-back too, but that's two positions between two players. Why not have Slade and Goode to cover the bench? Then you're comfortably covered, by those two players alone, for fly-half, both centres and full-back.
More and more in the modern game, matches are being won based on the strength of the bench, and in my opinion, in the opening two games Lancaster has not provided enough cover in various areas.
I've made no secret of the fact that I think Ford should be England's fly-half, and in the case of Lancaster wanting to play a conservative game, I still don't see why you can't have him there to control it?
Sure you don't lose much by having Farrell, but he is a provider of the ball, whereas Ford is a playmaker who could put the big centres into gaps rather than just asking them to create holes themselves.
If the set piece goes backwards, who will be able to keep the Welsh defence guessing? Farrell will be able to smash it up, so will Burgess and so will Barritt, but if the Welsh defend effectively then where will England turn? There are no rapiers in that midfield channel.
They have rapiers in the team, in Brown, May and Watson, but as it stands those three won't have much time on the ball.
So what does this mean in the grand scheme of England's World Cup? You could say that this is a decision made based on a one-off game against Wales, or you could say that in England's biggest game under Stuart Lancaster they have revealed their game plan and their intent for the big occasion.
It could work against Wales, it could work against Australia, but will it work for the rest of the tournament?
