Nobody in the NFL is playing as well as Josh Allen right now. Can the Buffalo Bills quarterback finally derail Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs?; watch Allen's Bills take on Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens in Sunday Night Football live on Sky Sports NFL from 1.20am Monday
Thursday 26 September 2024 16:54, UK
Yes, Josh Allen boasts a bazooka for an arm. Yes, he is the NFL's most fearless field-tilting passer of the football. Yes, he runs the rock like a juiced-up fullback. Yes, he hurdles defenders like a dwarfing tight end. Yes, he has demonstrated one of the most drastic leaps in accuracy the league has witnessed. But... but what?
His genius does not go unappreciated, but the narrative around the Buffalo Bills quarterback might feel a whole lot different were it not for the man with the taper fade mohawk over in Kansas City, who may be Allen's only superior.
Patrick Mahomes is in a Mount Rushmore-bound league of his own, but Allen and his influence are not all that far behind.
He IS the Bills offense. He always has been. When Brian Daboll left his post as offensive coordinator there were question marks over how Allen would fare in the absence of the man that had helped steer his staggering evolution from erratic rookie to game-wrecking slam-dunker. When perennial 1,000-yard man Stefon Diggs departed this offseason there were question marks over whether Allen could compensate for the lack of recognised veteran stars at receiver. He was fine, he is fine.
Through three weeks of the 2024 NFL season no quarterback in the league is playing better football than Allen, who spearheads the way-too-early MVP race as the greatest obstacle to the Chiefs' pursuit of a historic Super Bowl threepeat.
It is a story that comes with a warning of caution, a story you may have heard before. Allen's moments of 'this could be his year' defense-shredding absurdity, only to run into Andy Reid and the postseason-savvy Chiefs. There was the infamous 2021 Divisional Round matchup when the Chiefs broke Bills hearts by driving downfield to score a game-tying field goal with 13 seconds remaining, before eventually winning 42-36 in overtime. And last season when the Bills were denied again by their AFC rivals in the Divisional Round as Tyler Bass missed a field goal in the closing minutes of a 27-24 victory for the Chiefs.
They know their continued bid to maximise a Super Bowl window means having to oust Mahomes and co at some stage. But in this mood, resisting the temptation to buy into Buffalo's Championship credentials behind Allen remains a tall order.
He currently leads all quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite (Expected Points Added combined with Completion Percentage Over Expected) and passer rating, having completed 54 of 72 passes for 634 yards, seven touchdowns (second-most behind Sam Darnold's eight) and zero interceptions, as well as rushing for two touchdowns.
The Bills offense is meanwhile ranked first in EPA, first in dropback EPA, 12th in rush EPA and first in scoring, most recently dismantling the Jacksonville Jaguars 47-10 on Monday night to extend their perfect start to 3-0.
A Josh Allen at the helm relaxes concerns over the shortage of established superstars on offense in a way few others around the league could. Mahomes, while with a Hall of Fame-bound Travis Kelce at his disposal and the help of some Steve Spagnuolo mastery on defense, has done as much for his array of young unproven weapons since losing Tyreek Hill. The elite elevate those and the scheme around them, Mahomes and Allen are the very best in the league at doing just that.
"When you got Josh at quarterback, it makes life a lot easier, right? We've found different ways to win football games so far, and that's what I've been pleased about," said offensive coordinator Joe Brady this week.
Allen remains one of the NFL's any-angle off-schedule mutants at the top of every Sunday billing, with the hutzpah to throw haymakers at the two-high safety coverages designed to blunt his deep shots while splitting traffic with off-platform needles-threaders and bulldozing linebackers as a multi-pronged cheat code. He markets the game as well as anybody in the league, no matter what number sits next to his tally of Super Bowl wins.
The Brady offense has played a major factor in Buffalo's winning start and Allen being able to be Allen, the influence of which dates back to last season when he was promoted to replace the fired Ken Dorsey. The Bills are notably 9-1 in the regular season since Brady took over offensive coordinator duties in Week 11 of the 2023 campaign.
Selfless is a word that has been thrown around by players and personnel so far this season, Brady's system built on a ball-spreading 'anybody and everybody can feast' approach customary to an offense that no longer has a lead outlet like Diggs to keep happy.
It is an offense of 'prove it' players, third-year Khalil Shakir vying to cement his position as the team's leading receiver, a trio of Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Curtis Samuel having floated around multiple teams without ever being primary targets, young tight end Dalton Kincaid forecast as Allen's very own prospective Kelce and rookie Keon Coleman tasked by Sean McDermott with proving his potential while being granted no free pass despite the open audition to be in his quarterback's trust group.
A staple of Buffalo's greater balance has meanwhile been an enhanced ground game and increased role for running back James Cook, who already has 41 carries for 188 yards and three touchdowns on the ground alongside eight catches (second on the team) for 97 yards and a score.
"It's paying dividends of what we've worked on throughout the entire offseason and through training camp of the 'everybody eats' mentality," Allen said. "And, again, it could be your play this play. You never know when it's gonna happen. And that's the beauty of it. When guys get to buy into this and really understand, like, 'I may not get the ball four, five times thrown to me a game, but the one or two times I do, I'm gonna have opportunities to be in the end zone.'"
The Brady offense has not only re-empowered Allen to exploit his athleticism on the ground and outside the pocket, but instilled more polished and slicker route concepts that give his quarterback smoother progressions and multiple looks, with as much thriving at an early stage of the season when defenses are still seeking to decipher to whom the Bills want to get the ball. Diversity has so far equated to target obscurity. It is on Brady to continue evolving.
Brady and Allen had the Jags in hell during Week Three, underlined by a fourth down conversion that saw Shakir's quick feet on a fake orbit motion pre-snap not only expose man coverage but bamboozle Jarrian Jones to leave himself wide open to collect Allen's check down on the left of the formation and move the chains. It became the backfield equivalent of Allen letting rip downfield while seeing the defender with his back to him.
Shakir leads the Bills with 14 catches from all 14 of his targets for 168 yards and two touchdowns this season, nudging his way forward as Allen's favoured option with deep-shot presence and undoubtedly the team's most potent yards-after-catch threat. He has now also caught 27 consecutive targets in the regular season dating back to last year.
Allen feasts on man coverage; Shakir is a man coverage menace. They might have just become best friends.
"I can say this over and over again, he's a fricking football player," Allen said this week. "Emphasis on 'football.' He loves the game, he does things the right way, he's so selfless in his approach throughout the week.
"He may get two passes during practice, and again, he just keeps finding ways to be in the right spot at the right time and he makes plays. And that's just kind of his M.O. I fricking love him and I'm so proud of him and his trajectory."
The Bills were in their bag again late in the first half on Ty Johnson's 16-yard touchdown catch: Dawson Knox peeled off his tight split alignment to the left of the formation with Valdez-Scantling the furthest receiver on the outside, before the pair run shallow scissor routes with Johnson bursting out of the backfield to split them and take advantage of the man coverage to create traffic among the Jags defenders, Allen eventually slaloming to his left and flipping a side arm strike to his running back at the pylon. Glorious design and yet another showcase of an arm capable of making any throw look routine.
Allen has long-been one of the NFL's premium man coverage crushers, yet the Jags decided to lean heavily on man coverage and dare the Bills quarterback and his young receivers to beat their defensive backs one-on-one. Spoiler: they could. One Jags defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen won't enjoy watching back.
At times in the past the Bills offense has fallen stale, burdened by a notion of predictability to Allen launching deep shot after deep shot despite what the adjusted coverage is showing. Already he and Brady have given the system a more multiple appearance, the latter showing the flexibility to dip in and out of the 12 personnel usually installed to help sell or execute the run while teeing up the passing game. The beauty of Allen is the ability to sell the run without always requiring heavier personnel packages, the use and threat of his proven power on the ground already leaving defenses in limbo. The defensive fear of balance has in turn made life easier for Allen and his receiving core to attack multiple areas of the field.
And there are the small intricacies, too. The flawlessly-placed pass to find Shakir on a crossing route without the Bills receiver having to disrupt his stride on his way to a 27-yard catch-and-run touchdown, and the ease at which he flicks his wrist off the back-foot to locate Coleman on his deep over route for a 24-yard touchdown. He has cleaned up the turnovers, for now, is piloting the NFL's current most efficient motion-using offense and continues to evolve as a decision-maker within a system designed to give him some respite via 'easier' reads alongside his angle-defying bombs-away heroics.
Allen extinguished a potential upset against the Arizona Cardinals in Week One, torched the Miami Dolphins yet again in Week Two and just exposed a chasm in quality between his Bills and Trevor Lawrence's Jaguars. Super Bowls and MVP awards aren't won in September, he knows that better than anybody. But nobody in the NFL has started as quickly as the man under center for Buffalo, who most certainly remain contenders so long as he is there. In case there was any doubt.
Their first real test of the year comes on Sunday, when the wannabe MVP faces two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, the pair equally fired up to stick it to Mahomes and his band of Chiefs brothers.
Watch Allen's Buffalo Bills take on Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens in Sunday Night Football live on Sky Sports NFL from 1.20am Monday; Also stream with NOW.
