The Julio Jones-less Atlanta Falcons, Christian McCaffrey's Carolina comeback, the Jameis Winston era in New Orleans and Tom Brady's defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. Who will win the NFC South?
Wednesday 8 September 2021 11:40, UK
The time for talking is nearly over, with the 2021 NFL season just around the corner. And as kickoff edges ever closer, Sky Sports NFL writers are breaking down all eight divisions from the key men to the marquee acquisitions.
Thursday, September 9 is the date to mark in your diaries as the reigning Super Bowl champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Dallas Cowboys, which you can see live on Sky Sports NFL from 1.20am in the early hours of Friday morning.
For now, let's take a look at the contenders - continuing with the NFC South.
Head Coach: Arthur Smith
Key Man: The 2020 season may have been a demoralising reminder of the Falcons' downward spiral since their Super Bowl LI defeat, but Matt Ryan was still slinging it out there. All things considered, he put up good numbers. Ryan finished with 4,581 passing yards (5th in the league) and 286.3 yards per game (5th) for 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions having been sacked a fifth-most 41 times, pressured a fifth-most 166 times and hit a tied-second most 70 times. In life after Julio Jones for the Falcons, Matty Ice must lead the way.
Atlanta will meanwhile be counting on outside linebacker Dante Fowler to rediscover the 2019 form that amounted to 11.5 sacks for the Los Angeles Rams after his disappointing 2020 campaign. He has all the tools to be the most influential piece on a Falcons defense in desperate need of a spark.
Major Additions: It was testament to the allure of Kyle Pitts that the Falcons overlooked drafting their quarterback of the future in favour of selecting the Florida tight end with the fourth overall pick. Atlanta then addressed a 32nd-ranked passing defense by taking UCF safety Richie Grant in the second round, before adding third-round offensive tackle Jalen Mayfield to Matt Ryan's protection and picking up Arizona State wide receiver Frank Darby in the sixth round.
Free agency saw the Falcons sign former New Orleans Saints safety Erik Harris, as well as running back Mike Davis to replace Todd Gurley on the back of a career year with the Carolina Panthers. Castaway quarterback Josh Rosen arrived in August and running back Wayne Gallman was snapped up after being released by the San Francisco 49ers. The most important new face, though, is that of head coach Arthur Smith, who orchestrated the Tennessee Titans' third-ranked offense last year.
Last Season: The Falcons slumped to 4-12 and bottom of the division in their worst season since 2013. Head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff were fired in October following the team's first 0-5 start since 1997, during which they relinquished fourth-quarter leads of 15 points and 16 points in back-to-back defeats to the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears, respectively.
The Falcons won four of their next six under interim head coach Raheem Morris but by the end of the year had lost from winning positions in six games having closed out the season with five straight defeats.
Prospects: With Arthur Smith at the helm there is hope for an offense looking to establish an identity in the wake of losing its star player, but you fear a leaky offensive line and defense lacking playmakers will prove major stumbling blocks. This year is about building a foundation under a new head coach. The roster talent is there, but too many question marks linger.
Prediction: 4th (6-11)
Head Coach: Matt Rhule
Key Man: Christian McCaffrey is back for the Panthers, who enjoyed the services of their all singing and dancing running back for just three games last year due to a high ankle sprain suffered in Week Two followed by a shoulder injury sustained upon his return to action in Week Nine. The 2017 Draft's No.8 overall pick, who is the only running back in NFL history to have recorded two seasons with 100 or more receptions, marks the perfect partner for a quarterback fighting to revive his career in Sam Darnold.
Major Additions: Speaking of Darnold, the Panthers offered the 2018 first-round play-caller a fresh start in April as they acquired him via a trade with the New York Jets. General manager Scott Fitterer provided him with some immediate firepower by drafting the impressive catch radius of second-round wide receiver Terrace Marshall following the loss of Curtis Samuel in free agency, before also grabbing third-round tight end Tommy Tremble and sixth-round receiver Shi Smith. The Panthers crucially re-signed offensive tackle Taylor Moton to a bumper extension and filled the void left by Mike Davis by drafting fourth-round running back Chuba Hubbard to back up McCaffrey.
Carolina meanwhile built on the success of an all-defensive 2020 draft class by taking rangy future Pro Bowl cornerback Jaycee Horn at No. 8 overall, as well as signing veteran pass rusher Haason Reddick in free agency after he led the Arizona Cardinals with 12.5 sacks last season.
Last Season: The Panthers were arguably looking for performances more so than results as they entered the 2020 campaign under a first-time NFL head coach in Matt Rhule having parted with Cam Newton and lost linebacker Luke Kuechly to retirement in the offseason. A 5-11, third-placed finish in the AFC South in the absence of talisman McCaffrey came with its positives.
Mike Davis, though since departed, was a pleasant surprise in the backfield, wide receiver Robby Anderson proved a shrewd acquisition with his first 1,000-yard season, first-round defensive end Derrick Brown and second-round safety Jeremy Chinn offered potential as long-term stalwarts and of their 11 defeats eight of them came down to one possession margins.
Prospects: While the Panthers seem more likely than the Falcons to challenge the Saints in second, it's tough to look beyond another third-place finish and postseason-less campaign. How Sam Darnold performs in Joe Brady's college-style offense will be defining, while McCaffrey's return along with the arrival of new playmakers ought to make them more competitive.
Prediction: 3rd (7-10)
Head Coach: Sean Payton
Key Man: Jameis Winston begins life as starting Saints quarterback without star wide receiver Michael Thomas for at least the first six weeks of the season after the NFL's 2019 receiving leader was placed on the Physically Unable to Perform list. With that in mind, running back Alvin Kamara's two-for-one offering of elite production on both the ground and in the passing game will be the cornerstone of the Saints offense early on. In the post-Drew Brees era, he is Sean Payton's guy.
Major Additions: Having lost 2020 sack leader Trey Hendrickson and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins in free agency, the Saints went and drafted versatile defensive end Payton Turner with the No. 28 overall pick in one of the more surprising first-round selections, as well as signing Tanoh Kpassagnon in free agency.
The Saints strengthened at linebacker with second-round pick Pete Warner out of Ohio State, before drafting cornerback Paulson Adebo with hopes of him becoming a long-term partner for Marshon Lattimore following the departure of Janoris Jenkins. Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book was also drafted in the fourth round as potential future competition for Jameis Winston.
Last Season: A 12-4 record was enough for the Saints to win their fourth successive AFC South title as a top-five defense and Alvin Kamara's excellence compensated for a spluttering passing offense behind a since-retired Drew Brees. It should be noted the latter wasn't aided by the absence of the NFL's 2019 receiving leader Michael Thomas, who was limited to seven games (five starts) by injury.
The Saints asserted their authority with a commanding win over the eventual champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their opening game, before following up two straight defeats against the Las Vegas Raiders and Green Bay Packers with a nine-game winning streak that was eventually halted by the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14. Upon reaching the postseason they fended off the Chicago Bears 21-9 on Wild Card weekend until their Super Bowl hopes were ended by a 30-20 Divisional Round defeat to the Bucs.
Prospects: It's over to that man Jameis Winston as Drew Brees' initial successor takes the reins with ambitions of becoming the long-term successor. Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael reignited Brees' career after a tough start with the Chargers - can they do the same with Winston?
Ahead of him lies one of the best offensive lines in football - including newly-extended tackle Ryan Ramczyk - while the eventual return of Thomas, rise of tight end Adam Trautman and all-action expertise of Kamara in addition to Dennis Allen's defense should still be enough to take this team comfortably into the playoffs. If Jameis can cut out the turnovers, who knows where this team might go...
Prediction: 2nd (10-7)
Head Coach: Bruce Arians
Key Man: Protect No. 12 and the Bucs have every chance of going back-to-back at the Super Bowl. Tom Brady is still the story, is still the man. The frightening reality for Tampa's rivals is he barely had an offense during which to properly absorb Byron Leftwich's offense last year due to the impact of COVID, the value of time becoming clear as he began to carve defenses up over the second half of the season. Brady was pressured on just 23.7 percent of his drop backs across the regular season, which equates to third-lowest among starting quarterbacks according to PFF. A nasty offensive line of Donovan Smith, Ali Marpet, Ryan Jensen, Alex Cappa and Tristan Wirfs will again have a starring role to play.
Major Additions: The Bucs snagged perhaps the steal of the first-round at the Draft when Washington edge rusher Joe Tryon fell to them at No. 32 overall, before Tampa introduced a possible successor to Brady in second-round quarterback Kyle Trask out of Florida and injected yards-after-catch ability with fourth-round slot receiver Jaelon Darden.
The biggest headline, however, arrived before the Draft as general manager Jason Licht kept the band together by bringing back all 22 Super Bowl starters, making the Bucs the first team to do so since the salary-cap era began in 1994. In addition to that, they strengthened a ground game led by Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones by signing former Cincinnati Bengals running back Giovani Bernard in free agency.
Last Season: Crowned Super Bowl champions in their own backyard. You might say it couldn't have gone much better, but in truth, it probably could have. The Bucs boasted a top two passing offense behind Brady and his star-studded cast of receiving weapons, which lost Chris Godwin for four games and tight end OJ Howard for 12 games while only having Antonio Brown for eight games following his return from suspension in November. A No. 1 ranked rushing defense was without Vita Vera for 11 games due to a broken leg and a stagnant running game didn't really take off until Fournette's rise as playoff Lenny.
The Bucs finished the regular season 11-5 and second in the division having lost twice to the Saints and beaten the Green Bay Packers 38-10 in a statement victory that saw Aaron Rodgers intercepted twice. A key learning curve arrived in the 27-24 Week 12 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs when Todd Bowles' defense appeared to work out how to slow the defending champions after seeing Tyreek Hill top 200 yards in the first quarter alone. Evidently, it set them in good stead.
Tampa fended off an inspired Taylor Heinicke and Washington in the Wild Card round, toppled Brees' Saints and Rodgers' Packers to reach the Super Bowl before icing their postseason supremacy by swarming an unprotected Patrick Mahomes to keep the Chiefs out of the end zone and lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Prospects: Who would bet against Tom Brady flaunting an eighth Super Bowl ring come Monday, February 14? Not us. Everything is in place for the Bucs to defend their title. Injuries permitting, Bruce Arians' side will be there or thereabouts.
Prediction: 1st (13-4)
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