NBA free agency begins at 11pm UK time on Sunday June 30 - follow every move in our live blog from 9pm
Sunday 30 June 2019 10:25, UK
From KD and Kyrie to Kawhi, the headline names in this summer's NBA free agent class are well known. But who are the most attractive second-tier stars that could hit the market at 11pm on June 30? Mark Deeks examines six such players.
The NBA free agency period begins at 11pm on June 30. It is akin to football's transfer deadline day, but bigger and better in two ways. One, it goes on for at least a week, and normally two. And secondly, it is not really the case of lots of things might happen; lots of things will happen.
Almost half of the league's players are headed for free agency this summer, and almost half of the league's teams will have salary cap space to start dishing out. There are some very high-quality names in this year's crop about whom much has been said and written - the biggest news and rumours concern the likes of Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Kemba Walker, Al Horford, Jimmy Butler and D'Angelo Russell.
But one of the best things about this free agent classes that it simply keeps going. Where then are some of the best second and third-tier free agents to look out for, whom your team might be able to get on a relative bargain contract?
The vast majority of chatter around Philadelphia's free agency situation revolves around Jimmy Butler. He was the headline addition, he is the All-Star, he is the one that people have openly debated about whether he wants to leave considering that he seemingly always wants to leave wherever he is.
Let us not forget, though, about the other big addition. Tobias Harris was acquired at the past trade deadline from the Los Angeles Clippers in exchange for myriad nice assets, including the useful shooting of rookie Landry Shamet.
The 76ers had struggled both with outside shooting themselves and a drop-off in talent after the big three of Butler, Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons; the theory was that in being an excellent scorer and fringe All-Star who could do a lot of things without requiring many touches, Harris would be a perfect fourth wheel.
Considering injuries and the very quick timeline in which their roster was put together, the 76ers never got to experience the full potential of that line-up. What we do know is that they came one miracle shot from Kawhi Leonard away from a Game 7 overtime period in the Eastern Conference semi-finals against the eventual champion Toronto Raptors; they came closer to beating the champs than either the Milwaukee Bucks or Golden State Warriors did after them. Surely, then, they would dearly love to run it back.
They may, however, not be able to. Embiid already has signed a maximum contract, and retaining Butler would require one. Simmons will require one in the not-too-distant future, too, and it is very hard to fit in a fourth big contract while also remaining competitive.
If Butler were to leave as either a free agent or via sign-and-trade, it seems very likely that the 76ers will keep Harris - they will have to, otherwise they will have given up an awful lot of pieces for no return. But if Butler stays, Harris flies up the free agency wishlist. That versatility and efficiency that made him such a good potential fit for Philadelphia is also what makes him such a good fit anywhere.
Even before they traded for Mike Conley from the Memphis Grizzlies (a deal to be completed in July), it seemed certain that the Utah Jazz would be letting Rubio go this summer.
Donovan Mitchell is the future of the Jazz, so the team's point guard must be someone who can pair with him optimally. Mitchell, as brilliant as he is, is one of the more inconsistent young stars in the game today. Rubio was thus never an ideal pairing; he too is very streaky, especially in his shooting, sometimes going weeks at a time looking like a truly exceptional two-way player and then be unable to get the ball above the rim for a fortnight.
What they did not need alongside the inconsistent and inefficient shooting of Mitchell is the inconsistent and inefficient shooting of Rubio. The trade for Conley gives them a piece of tremendous stability, if he can stay healthy.
Rubio, however, is still a quality player in his own right. He is not of the calibre of a top-level scorer, yet he is a good ball handler and playmaker who will willingly share the ball around, play some handsy man-to-man defense on the perimeter, and be either a solid starter or a really, really excellent backup point guard.
The fact that Utah have moved on should not be something that overly counts against him; it was a question of compatibility rather than talent. Rubio has it, and he will be good for someone.
The Pelicans sought to replace DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo last summer with the pairing of Julius Randle and Elfrid Payton. It was a stop-gap attempt, and the only way they were able to get Randle, who had broken out the previous season with the Los Angeles Lakers, was to sign him to a deal with only one guaranteed season. Having declined his player option for this year, Randle re-enters the market after two years of very high production, the flaws in which should not overly diminish quite how much of it there is.
Scoring in double figures almost every night, Randle has taken advantage of the green light that allowed him to use an awful lot of possessions in isolation. Inevitably, a by-product of this was quite a few forced shots. Yet Randle is a very good offensive player who can seemingly always get to the rim in transition and semi-transition, who retains some of the post offense of his youth and this season began to add the one thing he has always lacked; a three-point shot.
Randle does not impress or make much impact on defense, and so as nice as 21 points, eight rebounds and three assists per game looks, he does give some of that back on the other end. He is, however, a net positive as a player and quite a unique one, the rare kind of player who you know exactly what he's going to do on the court, but you can't really stop it anyway.
Giving he is starting to now shoot the jumper, Randle is a 20 point-per-game scorer aged only 24, and one still improving; despite the flaws in how he does it, that is a very potent package numerous teams should be interested in.
Despite leading the NBA in regular season wins this season and making it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals, the Bucks were looking at an offseason with four of their five starters all headed for free agency, as well as their leading player off the bench.
Two of the five situations have been resolved. They signed starting point guard Eric Bledsoe to an extension before the offseason began, and reports out of Spain seem convinced that Nikola Mirotic will return to the country of his basketball upbringing to sign a huge money contract with Barcelona. Milwaukee, then, only has three left to pay. But it's still going to be very difficult to do that.
Bucks must pay Brogdon
Brogdon has the security of restricted free agency, but Milwaukee cannot feel too comfortable considering he is one of the best restricted free agents on the market. They have been able to bring in talents like they have over the last three years because they have had Brogdon on a minimum salary, but now that the bargain has expired, he's going to cost them a lot of money. And not mid-level exception, circa $9m money. But something close to double that.
Brogdon is a better two-way player than Bledsoe, a good shooter and committed defender who does a little bit of everything and has a very high basketball IQ, along with tremendous consistency. The Bucks just gave Bledsoe an average of $17.5m per season in his extension, and with teams such as the Dallas Mavericks circling, Brogdon merits at least that. If Bledsoe merits it, then he definitely does.
Middleton worth the max?
Khris Middleton also enters free agency this summer having been an All-Star in 2018-19. And All Stars cost money. The second scorer and reliable half-court option alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo's full-court dominance, Middleton has been only earning $13m per annum over his last four seasons, an absurdly good amount of money for any profession in the world other than NBA scoring star, where it is not enough compared to what you can get on the market.
Considering Middleton will be in his 30s by the time any significant deal expires, and considering he is in part a product of circumstance and may have reached the limits of his own upside, it likely will not take a maximum contract to get him. Yet in light of Milwaukee's limited spending power due to the Bledsoe extension, it might not take that much to win the bidding war, either.
Tough to keep Lopez
The toughest one to keep may be Lopez. The starting center took a massive discount from what he had earned previously to join the Bucks last summer, with his motivation being to sign only a one-year deal to get back into the market as soon as possible, this summer, when lots of teams have spending power.
Lopez is an absolutely perfect player for the modern NBA, who merits a payday several times more than what he received this past season from the Bucks, and they will know that as well as anyone.
However, due to salary cap rules, the most that the Bucks can offer him without decimating the rest of their roster is an amount starting at that aforementioned mid-level exception. And just as Julius Randle showed above, that is not enough for a very high-quality big man, especially a trendsetting one like Lopez.
It will be incredibly difficult for the Bucks to keep all three, even if Mirotic's decision alleviates some of the pressure of having to try to keep four.
And should someone inevitably get squeezed out, these will be some of the better names on tiers two and three of an absolutely stacked free agent crop.
