The greatest failure would have been complacency...
Monday 7 March 2016 23:35, UK
Conor McGregor's submission defeat to Nate Diaz was a setback in a unique career but does not lend weight to the argument that his ability was exaggerated.
The featherweight champion from Ireland lost in his welterweight debut (a full 25lbs higher than the division he rules) after Nate Diaz cracked him with a punishing left hand then forced him to submit to a choke at UFC 196 in Las Vegas.
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It was perfectly reasonable to expect McGregor to win, even looking beyond his bravado and his inexperience at 170lbs. Diaz was rightfully an underdog having accepted this fight at 11 days' notice but was never a no-hoper just to make up the numbers. His victory is an upset but not comparable to Ronda Rousey's shock dethroning in November at Holly Holm's hands.
It can't be overstated that McGregor was voluntarily competing two weight classes above the division that he rules as champion which is a factor directly attributable to the result. Of course, Diaz's rangy punching and submission skills mustn't be overlooked but it's not possible to make the argument that he is the best opponent McGregor has faced. Jose Aldo may always hold that mantle.
But Diaz, the evidence proves, was a tougher puzzle to solve and that's because of his size and more pertinently his reach. Fights, whether in a ring or a battlefield, will always be largely governed by whose weapons can strike from the safest distance. Diaz's longer levers were thrown straight, rather than as hooks, in order to maximise his advantage and one of these blows struck McGregor decisively, with the Irishman's guard down, when he thought he was safe. There is nobody at featherweight who could have landed that shot.
In the first round, McGregor did a good job of closing the gap but it always looked more strenuous than punches he has thrown in previous fights. He was inaccurate and struck elbow, arm and shoulder obstacles. His front kick to the body, a frequent ally, was missing perhaps because he anticipated a Diaz counter-punch down the pipe. The spinning attacks that usually force an opponent to become stuck in front of McGregor's left hand were rare.
There is a saying in the fight world that a good big man should always defeat a good little man - McGregor was outsized by a perennial contender and ultimately outfought.
There has always been a question mark surrounding how McGregor would defend himself on the ground but a bigger concern will be the sight of the Irishman staggering around awkwardly having absorbed damaging punches at boxing range.
Throughout his three-year UFC run, and indeed for his entire career, he has excelled when the fight remains on the feet and his dangerous left hand can find its target. His entire skill-set is built around setting up the knockout shot with that fist and it has accounted for six UFC victims so far. Against Diaz, Plan A didn't work and McGregor found himself seriously hurt after emerging on the wrong end of a punching exchange.
It would be easy to point at the submission defeat as evidence that McGregor's ground skills are not up to par. All three of his career defeats have come via submission but, on this occasion, it was Diaz's boxing that did the damage. When they found themselves grappling on the canvas moments later, the dizzy McGregor was in no state to adequately defend himself.
Future opponents who are also handy with their fists will seek solace knowing that KO artist McGregor can be hit, and it will be fascinating to see whether he still carries the same swagger when facing a dangerous stand-up fighter.
McGregor's boldest ambition was a plot to own UFC championships simultaneously in three weight divisions, when only BJ Penn and Randy Couture have managed to become two-weight champions at separate times. Perhaps there is a reason for that rarity. This result must become a splash of cold water to the face of believers in that plan.
While the fight was contested at welterweight, remembering that Diaz is truly a lightweight must be a sobering blow to McGregor's plans. The American competed four times at welterweight with mixed results but his true home is at 155lbs, just one division above McGregor's home of 145lbs, and yet his size advantage was overwhelming.
Diaz, prior to the fight, was ranked at No 6 at lightweight and suffered a one-sided defeat to current champion Dos Anjos in December 2014 which is a worrying indicator of what may await McGregor. Certainly, a move up to lightweight would be an immense challenge but switching to welterweight should be written off completely.
Diaz opted out of a permanent stint at welterweight because he was under-sized compared to fighters who drastically cut weight to make 170lbs, then step into the cage closer to 200lbs.
Size matters, it seems. McGregor's X-factor throughout his success has been the knockout power he is capable of generating through intelligent use of his reach but bigger men can take a bigger punch.
"When I fight a man in the division I am champion in, they crumble under those shots," he said. Leaving his featherweight nest permanently would be surrendering his advantage to men like Diaz, who could absorb what McGregor has to offer while throwing something back in return.
McGregor was aiming for the stars and, even when faced with original opponent Rafael dos Anjos' injury, refused to relinquish his desire to hoist the fight game onto a new level. Under any circumstance, a 145lbs world champion voluntarily competing at 170lbs simply to prove himself is a remarkable demonstration of bravery. Although he came up short, the context is a vital part of the story.
His coach John Kavanagh tweeted: "Ever tried. Ever failed. No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better." McGregor should attract praise for not convening within the rules of normality, although he ultimately paid for it. His steadfast refusal to take the easy option is an admirable quality in someone of his trade. "I will never shy away from defeat, it's part of the game," he said frankly afterwards.
He aimed to become the first fighter to hold two UFC belts simultaneously so when 155lbs champion Dos Anjos withdrew injured, a hefty decision sat with McGregor. He could have also withdrawn and rescheduled with Dos Anjos, but that thought never crossed his mind.
The event rested on his shoulders and, not for the first time, he accepted a late replacement. McGregor even raised the stakes by agreeing to a 170lbs limit because Diaz wouldn't have had time to cut to 155lbs. Yes, the Irishman has failed to ascend to the outer reaches of what we thought was possible but a greater failure would been contentedness with mere brilliance.
Was the Irish star too hyped? No, everything you thought you knew about the 'Notorious' one prior to UFC 196 remains absolutely true. Diaz has not uncovered the truth, nor has he exposed weaknesses in McGregor.
It was just three months ago that the 27-year-old ended one of the best championship reigns in the history of the sport. Jose Aldo was the only featherweight champion ever, undefeated in a decade, and ranked No 1 in the UFC's official pound-for-pound rankings. After months of insisting he was superior, McGregor needed 13 seconds to prove it. He hasn't become a poor fighter overnight.
Defeating Aldo, in any manner let alone such a quick knockout, would be a result worthy of hanging an entire career on. His skills in the cage [the vicious straight left, his kicks to the body and knees] remain formidable, his approach to training is unique and his allure has advanced a burgeoning sport. None of that has been altered by Diaz's choke.
