Ryder Cup betting preview: Who to back for victory at Hazeltine
By Ben Coley
Last Updated: 27/09/16 4:55pm
Which team will claim Ryder Cup glory? What will the winning score be? Ben Coley looks at what to expect at Hazeltine.
The United States should win the Ryder Cup. Davis Love III's side are, as a collection of individuals, more talented than Europe. They have won more titles, whether your measure is majors or any professional event.
They've largely enjoyed more successful seasons, a fact reflected in the Official World Golf Rankings. And they have home advantage, a factor which shouldn't be underestimated.
For much of the season, I have been happy to predict that the US will win the Ryder Cup. Even as the last of the even-money disappeared in March, I felt the United States offered reasonable value at 10/11 and 4/5. Too much was made, in my view, of Europe's dominance which has seen them win eight of the last 10 matches and each of the last three.
As time has passed and the United States have hardened, making the case for backing them has in fact become more difficult. They may have the best players, they may have home advantage, but it would require a particularly reductive appraisal to conclude that they should in fact be closer to 4/9 than to 4/6, thereby offering genuine value at their current odds.
What's more, the most recent events must surely have alarm bells ringing among those invested in a home win, be that from a financial or emotional perspective.
For starters, some of the noise coming from within the US camp and from its closest supporters has been baffling. Love started it by declaring that his side might be the best ever assembled; Johnny Miller expanded to call Europe's among the worst.
We can never measure the impact of such statements, but many a sporting tale has started with the pinning of quotes to a dressing room wall and from a motivational perspective, European captain Darren Clarke has had his task made easier.
Then there's the mess triggered two years ago by Billy Horschel's unlikely run to FedEx Cup glory. Back then, Tom Watson had already selected his side, and the US mistakenly bought into the idea that Horschel would've been the answer to some of their problems at Gleneagles.
A 'Task Force' was assembled - and it concluded that Love should be allowed to make his final pick just days before the start of the Ryder Cup, allowing him to select the hottest player available.
In the end, the US may have emerged from the shackles of their own contrived system with the best possible result: no Bubba Watson, in his place a rookie with a proven match play record whose game appears to complement so many of his team-mates.
Ryan Moore is the sort of quiet, tenacious player who will afford the opposition the respect they deserve, and one playing so well that he will be hard to beat whenever called upon. There can be no doubt that he deserves his place on the team.
But make no mistake, this system has been a distraction for Love and all of his team, one of whom, Jim Furyk, has by all accounts been hanging onto the idea that he may yet be called up to play. Clarke, meanwhile, has long since made his selections, and while the omission of Russell Knox may not have pleased everyone, his wildcards have the faith of their team-mates.
Success buys you certain privileges, among which is the benefit of the doubt. So while the days prior to tee-off may see the exclusion of Bubba Watson questioned, for Clarke there is simply no case to answer.
It seems clear that Love did not intend nor expect to select Moore; to avoid doing so, all he needed was a top-10 from Bubba Watson at East Lake, a genuine challenge from Justin Thomas, something similar from Daniel Berger, or Moore himself to play unspectacularly. In the end, the 33-year-old did quite the opposite, showing all the tenacity of a potential Ryder Cup star to make Rory McIlroy pull out all the stops.
I don't know enough about Love as a tactician, as an organiser, to state unequivocally that he's been caught out, but to the best of my understanding, Moore has forced his hand and plans will now have to change. This is a player who declined the offer to practice with the team last Monday, so where now does he fit in?
If Love is employing Paul Azinger's pod system, to which does Moore enter? Was a space set aside for the last player, and if so does he fit into that space as comfortably as the big hitters he has usurped?
Clarke, on the other hand, was always going to pick Lee Westwood and Martin Kaymer. Better yet, he was desperate to pick Thomas Pieters, so when the Belgian won on the eve of Clarke's announcement, the decision was not as difficult as Europe's captain was compelled to imply.
Clarke had planned for Pieters long before the youngster produced a round his captain described as among the best he'd ever seen when they played together the previous Thursday.
There are other hard-to-measure issues for the US, including Phil Mickelson's attack on Tom Watson two years ago and the potential for more foot-in-mouth moments, but the primary concern away from those mentioned can be found by looking at the conclusion of the Tour Championship and the final leaderboard from East Lake.
Team Europe had just one player teeing off last week; Team US had eight. The sole European won in remarkable fashion as the best of the Americans collapsed to sixth and the others, to a man, failed to perform.
Jimmy Walker beat just one man home; JB Holmes just two; Patrick Reed just four. These are three men who have each played one Ryder Cup and earned positive reviews, but who must now prove that they are in peak condition heading to Hazeltine.
Admittedly, there are many examples of players producing the goods in the Ryder Cup having appeared not to be in particularly good form prior, but if Love can easily swat aside questions relating to his own players, he'll find it more difficult to ignore the potential impact of McIlroy's win.
Rory may not have Westwood's experience, nor has he always appeared a particularly effective pairs player, but he is without doubt Europe's on-course leader, the man to whom they will look when fireworks are required.
He's the one team-mates recognise as the most able in that dressing room, the one with the intangible magic which ties together all of the games best throughout the decades. Look at the shots he hit to win at East Lake and you'll see more than talent, more than tenacity. You'll see greatness.
Every member of Team Europe making their way to Hazeltine on Monday will have watched Rory add yet another chapter to his remarkable career. It will inspire them, from possible partners like Andy Sullivan and Sergio Garcia to once-adversaries like Westwood. Trite it may sound, but Europe will feel like they have one on the board already.
Ultimately, I've come to the conclusion that Europe may still lose the Ryder Cup. The US have talent enough to win and win well, and let us not forget that for nearly two days at Medinah two years ago, they appeared set to do just that. They so easily could have won at Celtic Manor, too, so this idea of absolute European dominance has its caveats.
And while I do not believe Miller should be passing comment on the European side, there is a case to be made that he has a point. It's a long time since Rafael Cabrera-Bello won a tournament, even if some of his performances in 2016 have been among his best.
Chris Wood qualified on the strength of his victory at Wentworth in May and has struggled a little since, while Sullivan's place on the team owes largely to what he did in 2015 and he's endured a frustrating season.
Westwood and Kaymer bring experience, but lack recent individual success, while there remains concern as to Henrik Stenson's fitness and some up and down performances from Olympic gold medal winner Justin Rose, whose personal Ryder Cup record marks him out as one of the event's all-time greats in the making.
It's easy to argue that all of these players will find another level, as so often has been the case previously, now faced with this unique challenge. But make no mistake: victory for Europe at Hazeltine would represent one of their very best since Tony Jacklin and Seve Ballesteros helped make this a competition rather than a one-sided exhibition nearly four decades ago.
All that said, the market offers no encouragement to take a strong view either way, so as a punter the best approach I can find is to keep stakes small and focus on the correct score betting, where we can manufacture upwards of 2/1 that the US win, but by a narrow margin.
Back 14.5-13.5, 15-13 and 15.5-13.5, scores which cover four of the last five US victories, the exception being 2008 when the catastrophic captaincy of Nick Faldo exaggerated their superiority.
While this American team does have the ability to win by 16-12 or more, allowances have to be made for Europe's ability to cling on, for the fact that however big the deficit gets they will always be able to call upon the memory of Medinah and what they achieved there. I conclude that the US are likely to win but Europe will not easily be beaten.
