Ryder Cup betting preview: Who will top the points list at Hazeltine?
By Ben Coley
Last Updated: 28/09/16 8:19am
Who will be the star man at Hazeltine? Which player will prove to make the difference? Ben Coley looks at those likely to impress at the Ryder Cup.
Top-scorer bets on the Ryder Cup involve a degree of guesswork, but also an acceptance that even knowing a captain's plans doesn't allow for the fact that they can be rewritten in an instant.
Changes can be forced, such as when rain wreaked havoc at Celtic Manor in 2010, or a reaction to events. In 2014, Tom Watson sent Bubba Watson and Webb Simpson - friends and a hugely successful Presidents Cup duo - out in the very first match. They lost 5&4 and Simpson didn't feature again until Sunday.
Davis Love III undoubtedly has a plan and it's one which will likely involve dividing his team into sub-groups, from which pairings will be selected. This method, showcased in its best light by Paul Azinger in 2008, is fine when you're winning - but if blue starts to go on the board, a dramatic rethink could throw up some unlikely partnerships.
With six rookies on his side, Darren Clarke is almost compelled to be more malleable. But Clarke is known to have decided many weeks ago on his pairings for the first day and even the order in which they'll play, which alone makes Europe's situation - and the markets which focus on the holders - easier to assess.
It's with that very much in mind that Andy Sullivan rates value at 13/2 to be the pick of those European rookies. Sullivan wouldn't be the best of the sextet, neither in terms of ability or form, but he may well prove to be the best connected having forged a close relationship with Rory McIlroy.
For a long time now, this pair have teed it up together in practice whenever possible, and during their ding-dong tussle at the DP World Tour Championship late last year it was clear that Sullivan - unlike some - is perfectly comfortable in the presence of Europe's finest golfer.
Captain Clarke, sold on the idea that an ideal pairing can be greater than the sum of its parts, appears set to rely on the strength of the McIlroy-Sullivan relationship and its ability to put one of his rookies at ease right away.
Of course, simply playing with Rory entitles Sullivan to nothing, but while McIlroy's Ryder Cup record in pairs matches isn't outstanding, perhaps now he's about to find the partner with whom he can flourish.
Years ago it was believed to be mentor Graeme McDowell, but it soon became clear Rory had outgrown that relationship and McDowell spoke of how difficult he found it to share a ball with someone so much more powerful than him.
At Medinah, McIlroy switched to Ian Poulter for that famous Saturday recovery but a subsequent partnership with Sergio Garcia underwhelmed slightly two years later.
Garcia is the only current team-mate with whom Rory has played Ryder Cup golf with before and with so many rookies in the side, Clarke will surely attempt to keep them apart and spread the experience.
On Tuesday, McIlroy played in practice with Garcia, Sullivan and Chris Wood to further underscore the likelihood of a partnership with Sullivan, who also merits a glance in the top European market at 22/1 compared to the 7/2 quoted about his perceived partner.
It would be difficult to be absolutely confident in Sullivan as a player except to say that he's clear value, but there are definite concerns that Danny Willett - favourite in the top rookie betting - could be set to play alongside Lee Westwood or a fellow newcomer like Matt Fitzpatrick.
Willett and Westwood are as close as any two players on either side and Westwood's experience could clearly benefit the Masters champion, whose pedigree is at another level to the other European newcomers even if in Fitzpatrick and Thomas Pieters, Clarke can call upon two major winners of the future.
It's quite possible that Willett and Westwood form a strong partnership but what's clear is the latter hasn't been in particularly good form lately, and that in recent Ryder Cups he hasn't reached the heights of his earlier years. Whichever way you view his role, it's not difficult to argue that Sullivan's likely partner puts him at an advantage.
Sullivan also performed well at the 2011 Walker Cup, where he won two foursomes and was competitive in singles against Harris English and Jordan Spieth, so he gets the vote in a competitive market.
The equivalent US market wouldn't have existed were it not for Ryan Moore's sensational performance at the Tour Championship, but Brooks Koepka is an unbelievable bet to outscore him at 10/11.
Koepka qualified for the side automatically and is a player who turned Love's head long ago. He'd have been selected had he not made certain of his place already and will be expected to play a key role even in what looks an exceptionally strong side.
Love had four rookies at his disposal at Medinah, and three of them played four matches. In other words, he was happy to rely on the newcomers and for so much of the event that faith was rewarded.
But while Koepka has been a part of plans for some time, Moore's 11th-hour selection makes life difficult for his captain. Having only just done enough to make the side and not been any kind of factor until very recently, it appears unlikely Moore will now be asked to play four or five matches even considering the form he's shown throughout September.
What's more, Hazeltine is an extremely long golf course and the rough, just like at Medinah, has been cut short. It is not set up to be penal, and it's on penal courses that Moore has shone of late, except for when winning at the low-scoring, lights-out John Deere Classic which has tended to favour neat and tidy players like Moore, Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker.
No awards for originality here, but Dustin Johnson is that man and gets the vote to top-score at 15/2. This is a big, big golf course and Johnson's form this summer puts him ahead of every other player in this event, bar perhaps McIlroy given what he did on Sunday.
There's very little between the two, but DJ has home advantage and is on the side who are favourites. He's in peak physical condition and must surely play all five matches unless something goes wrong early.
In his career, Johnson has played two Ryder Cups. The first of them came at Celtic Manor where, like so many of his team-mates, he struggled in the pairs matches. But on Sunday, he took out Martin Kaymer 6&4 in the most impressive performance of the week, a sign of what was to come.
Two years later at Medinah, Johnson was criminally underused, playing three matches, all of which he won. Love will not make the same mistake twice and DJ, who is a completely different beast now four years on, is going to be extremely difficult to beat on a golf course perfectly set up for him.
All of this is obvious, but I don't believe it's reflected in the betting. Johnson should be favourite and at the price is worth a bet.