Thursday 2 April 2015 07:24, UK
Ben Coley previews the Shell Houston Open and fancies some big-hitting outsiders to shine.
Jordan Spieth will start as clear favourite for the Shell Houston Open, after the withdrawals of both Henrik Stenson and Jimmy Walker forced his price in to just 6/1.
The boy wonder almost made it two wins in as many starts last week only to be outgunned by a rampant Walker, but despite the absence of that foe, there are two big concerns when it comes to his prospects at the Golf Club of Houston.
First and foremost, Spieth will have Augusta firmly on the mind and he said so himself on Sunday night. Secondly, he went on to state that this week’s venue is nowhere near as suitable to his game and while those words should be taken with caution, at the price he’s easy to swerve.
Indeed, it’s surely a week to look beyond the head of the market which is packed with players whose primary goal for the next few days will be to get their game in shape for Augusta and the battle for a Green Jacket.
The organisers of this event know their place and will again set up the course to mimic the Masters venue, which means this really could be called a glorified workout for the stars of the game even if many of them are still capable of winning at less than 100 per cent.
Of those towards the top of the betting, course specialist Lee Westwood and the quietly impressive Louis Oosthuizen make the most sense, but my strongest fancy is Russell Henley.
As a Georgia man, Henley is entitled to also be distracted by a return to the Masters but that’s factored into a juicy each-way price in the region of 80/1, generous enough considering he’s already a two-time PGA Tour winner.
Both of Henley’s triumphs have come in impressive fashion, the first in a shootout at Waialae and the second in a play-off which included none other than Rory McIlroy. He plainly has the ability and the mental fortitude to get the job done in this type of grade.
Last year, Henley arrived in moderate form and putted poorly but still finished seventh, so on the back of 13 straight cuts made and with better expected on the greens, he could go extremely close.
So too could Shawn Stefani, who finished fifth here last year when he desperately needed a big week.
The Texan took up an invite from the tournament director 12 months ago to complete his medical extension close to home, which essentially meant he had to earn in the region of $80,000 dollars or face losing his status on the PGA Tour altogether.
Stefani won over a quarter of a million thanks to a thoroughly brave display and having subsequently clocked a pair of second-placed finishes, one of which came behind Justin Rose at Congressional, he’s taken his game to another level since.
It would be no shock at all to see big-hitting Stefani thrive on his return to a course he knows and loves, and in the process earn a last-gasp invite to Augusta.
Of the remainder, Carlos Ortiz is a progressive rookie who finished 15th despite playing on the wrong side of a massive draw bias last week.
This Mexican star-in-the-making studied in Texas so looks a prime candidate to go well at a price once more, particularly now that he can put his big-hitting talents to use on a more expansive, low-scoring layout.
Finally, with power very much the order of the day, take a chance by backing both Scott Piercy and Robert Garrigus.
Both are players to look out for when their brute strength is a factor and when scoring is low, and with that formula in play, this week should suit much more than last.
It’s encouraging, then, that both men played tidily enough in San Antonio and Garrigus in particular looks like he might return to form soon. This is a player who would be 40/1 here at his peak, especially given that he’s previously finished fifth in the event, so at more than three-times that there’s clear each-way value.
Piercy, meanwhile, has done well since returning from injury last autumn and was one shot off the lead after 54 holes in the 2009 renewal, only to card a final-round 80. He’s a far better player now and need only make his share of putts to prove his odds to be extremely generous.
Top tips:
1pt e.w. Scott Piercy at 125/1
1pt e.w. Robert Garrigus at 200/1
1pt e.w. Carlos Ortiz at 125/1
1pt e.w. Shawn Stefani at 66/1
1pt e.w. Russell Henley at 100/1
Watch the first round of the Houston Open live on Sky Sports 4 from 8pm on Thursday.
