Thursday 14 July 2016 09:55, UK
Nick Dougherty looks at the importance of making a fast start at Royal Troon and predicts how the world's best will fare at The Open.
Troon is a really great golf course and is going to be a tough test, but I'm still undecided as to what the scoring will be. It's a hard layout to describe because the front nine has so many chances and then things change after the turn.
Guys like Dustin Johnson, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy will be able to knock it on to the first, get it pretty close on the second, hit it on to the third and then knock it on to the par-five fourth in two. The fifth is a par-three and the sixth is reachable too, so they could feasibly have chances on all of those.
"Nobody would bat an eyelid if Rory McIlroy turns it all on this week and goes on to win."
What we'll see is that guys go out there knowing they need to capitalise on the front nine. If you don't manage to do that, then it instantly puts pressure on you mentally because you've had a slow start.
Everything becomes a different ball game after the turn. I feel like guys will be able to reach the turn in five under and as hard as the back nine is, they should still be able to stay close to that once they've reached the clubhouse.
If it was two nines like the back nine though, the scoring would be worse than at Oakmont because it's so much more difficult. The players are turning up this week not necessarily knowing what a great performance will be.
Calmer conditions would be a great equaliser here, but I do hope it starts blowing just to see how different the two nines will play.
Unless you are out extremely early like Monty at 6.35, the wind is probably going to pick up before you get to the back nine, so there's the possibility of an advantage for the early starters.
If my life depended on it and I had to pick one player to win this week, I'd pick Dustin Johnson. He drives it miles and straight, which is going to be a massive advantage around here.
Going into the wind, you're going to need to hit your driver and DJ's going to be in play and as close to the greens as you can be.
His wedge play is dynamite and he's been putting really well lately, which has separated him from the other top players of late. The big hitters do have an advantage around here.
One player who has the potential of producing a really nice week is Rickie Fowler. He's good at links golf and although his form isn't necessarily great right now, the course could just have the right feel for him.
He won the Scottish Open in similar conditions and although he has gone quiet in the past three months, he has every chance of standing here at the end of the week with the Claret Jug in his hand.
It would not surprise me one bit to see Jason Day bounce back from his poor finish at the WGC this week. He almost looks puzzled when the media ask him about it, as he has already moved on and thinking ahead to the next event.
It's the same with Jordan Spieth after his final round at Augusta. He doesn't seem to feel the pain and is already looking at what's coming up ahead. It might not be particularly romantic, but it's what makes him one of the best players in the world.
Rory McIlroy has already won this year without being anywhere near his best standard. He's still good enough to win and has had a number of top-fives in recent starts.
The fact he hasn't yet put four rounds together makes you think it's not quite there, but then the consistency with results shows he's there or thereabouts.
Nobody would bat an eyelid if Rory turns it all on this week and goes on to win. I don't believe a strong wind plays into Rory's hands, as stronger winds bring in to play the errors that he has been known to make now and then.
Having said that, he is mentally in a good spot, he is happy off the course, happy with his game and just waiting for it to all come together.
Watch The Open throughout the week live on Sky Sports - your new home of The Open. Tournament coverage begins on Thursday from 6.30am.
