Wednesday 9 August 2017 13:46, UK
Ben Coley runs through the players best-placed to challenge for PGA Championship victory at Quail Hollow.
While his price looks short and it's been a frustrating year to date, Rory McIlroy is nevertheless worthy of top spot in the PGA Championship Power Rankings.
That's largely because his record at Quail Hollow is sensational. Rory has two wins by a combined 11 shots at this golf course, one which was made for his game, and also lost a play-off here in-between.
Changes have been made to several holes but they won't completely alter the make-up of the layout and McIlroy is entitled to feel like the man to beat after encouraging performances at both Birkdale and Firestone.
There's a worry that his approach play - particularly from inside 150 yards - isn't good enough right now to capitalise on his typically awesome driving, but with Quail Hollow set to play long this shouldn't be a battle of wedge games.
Getting off to a good start is vital - McIlroy played himself out of the Open over the first six holes and needs to avoid doing that here.
Tick that box and McIlroy will expect to be a factor on Sunday in the only major he's won more than once.
Chasing a career grand slam is no easy task, and it's been difficult for McIlroy to live up to expectations at Augusta since he had the opportunity to secure his own from 2015 onwards.
But Jordan Spieth is something extra special, as we were again reminded next month, and if anything the prospect of making history could draw out a step forward, rather than a step back.
Remember, two years ago he won the first two majors of the season and talk of a season slam was rife as he headed to St Andrews. While Spieth came up short, he missed the play-off by one shot before finishing second in this championship. It's hard to argue the weight of history had a negative impact on his play.
Spieth doesn't have the Quail Hollow history of some of his key rivals here but what he does have is the best record of any player in majors since the start of 2015, plus all the confidence which Birkdale will doubtless have given him.
Having tuned up nicely at Firestone last week and with newly laid Bermuda putting surfaces set to suit, Spieth has an obvious chance to achieve something truly remarkable and, at just 24, complete his set of majors.
Fresh off a sensational display at Firestone, Hideki Matsuyama must have a massive chance to become the first men's major champion from Japan - if he can deal with that pressure.
He's gone close before, including at Erin Hills in June, but never have expectations been higher and it'll be interesting to see how this brilliant tee-to-green operator deals with the hype.
Should he manage, there's plenty in his favour. Matsuyama was deadly with his irons last week, putted better than average which is all he needs, and knows how to string together wins having done so at the start of the year.
A modest record at Quail Hollow isn't any real concern - he'd never done anything at Firestone prior to last week - and we've seen the likes of McIlroy and Spieth double up in big events in recent years.
Matsuyama is closing in on his breakthrough and it might have come in this event 12 months ago but for some shocking short-range misses on the greens.
If he can avoid such mistakes and cope with the glare of the Japanese media, watch for Matsuyama contending.
It's testament to how far Dustin Johnson has come that eighth in Canada followed by 17th at Firestone goes down as worrying form - especially given that he started favourite for both events.
Now fourth in the market, that seems about right for a player who isn't quite firing as he did in the spring, when three consecutive wins saw him arrive at Augusta as a strong favourite.
Still, Johnson says he's close to clicking once more and if that's the case, a second major could well arrive on the sort of long, soft golf course that rewards his powerful and precise driving.
Johnson hasn't played Quail Hollow since 2011 but a second-round 65 one year earlier shows that he can score here and the world number one can't be ruled out.
Like Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler secured his first PGA Tour title at this week's host venue and it could well be that his first major also arrives at Quail Hollow.
The popular 28-year-old has held his form brilliantly all year, stayed on nicely for another top-10 finish last time out, and has finished in the top 22 at all three majors this season as he continues to bang loudly on the door.
Fowler felt that it was just a bad day with the putter as he could only share fifth at Erin Hills in June and the feeling is that he's got the attitude to put disappointments behind him in a similar way to Dustin Johnson, who of course had several chances before finally breaking through last summer.
Fowler, who is putting as well as when placing in all four majors three years ago, is good enough to get the job done very soon and those ties with the course confirm that this week's PGA Championship provides another massive opportunity.
A month ago, plenty thought Jon Rahm was the man to beat at the Open after he produced some sensational golf to run away with the Irish Open a fortnight beforehand.
It wasn't to be at Birkdale, but for now a long, soft, parkland course like Quail Hollow should play to his strengths much more than a real links test in England so watch for Rahm stepping up on a T44 finish at Birkdale.
He drove the ball really well at Firestone last week and has already won on a major-quality course in the US, having broken through in sensational fashion at Torrey Pines earlier this season.
And while yet to really contend for a major, the Spaniard - now sixth in the world having only turned professional last summer - will soon figure out how to channel his emotions and play a more patient game when required.
On balance, perhaps one or two more major starts are needed but Rahm won't see it that way.
Brooks Koepka's US Open win by no means came out of the blue - he'd made 10 major cuts in a row dating back to the summer of 2014, placing three times and producing a series of other good finishes.
In other words, this big-hitter from Florida knows exactly how to peak for the main events, and we saw as much as he contended to a point in the Open at Birkdale last month.
With that in mind, there's no reason to worry about a low-key warm-up at Firestone last week. Koepka broke par in two of his four rounds to sneak inside the top 20, and that is a perfectly solid way to put the finishing touches to his preparations.
Unlike many, he has no competitive experience of Quail Hollow but there are no other negatives to report. With a devastating combination of power and putting prowess, nothing worse than 11th in the majors this year and a ruthless win at Erin Hills, he has to be marked down as a massive danger to the favourites.
One of the stars of the early part of the year, Justin Thomas has fallen off the radar a little since a disappointing Sunday saw him miss out on his first chance to win a major at the US Open.
Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that Thomas's confidence took a hit as a fellow young American won at Erin Hills, but don't expect him to be down for long.
Quail Hollow - where he was seventh in 2015 - offers Thomas the opportunity to get back in the mix and put the lessons he's learned to use, particularly after a nice, quietly-progressive effort at Firestone where only a cold putter let him down.
Thomas will have to make a few more to stand a chance here but with conditions ideal, that's not asking for much. He looks among the best value from those at 50/1 and shorter and is expected to go well.
Speaking of players who have slipped off the radar a little, Jason Day is another example.
This time last year, Day almost defended his PGA Championship title when runner-up to Jimmy Walker yet 12 months on, he's some way from the head of the market.
That's because 2017 hasn't gone to plan. Day has been only on the fringes of contention in big events and the combination of off-course distractions and some poor iron play means he's struggled to put four rounds together.
But as the Aussie continues to make small improvements, he has to be worth keeping an eye on - especially at a course like Quail Hollow, where he boasts a previous top-10 finish and appears well suited to the challenge ahead.
Day's record in this major is extremely solid and two wins in three years - something McIlroy achieved in 2012 and 2014 - is not beyond him.
With Henrik Stenson owning an awful record at the course, Justin Rose struggling with some swing changes and Sergio Garcia not in the form he showed to win the Masters, it's a red-hot Charley Hoffman who completes the Power Rankings.
Since turning 40 over Christmas, Hoffman has found an extra gear which will surely be rewarded with further titles at some stage - whether at this level or, more likely, slightly below in something like the Deutsche Bank next month.
But let's not rule out the idea that he could win here. Hoffman's recent form reads 8-3-39-20-2-3, a sequence which includes two majors, and he was also the first-round leader before finishing 22nd at Augusta in April.
With eight rounds in the 60s since a solid effort at Birkdale and with these conditions much more suitable, there's no reason Hoffman can't make another good start, and perhaps this time he might stick around for a place inside the top six or seven.
