Tuesday 27 October 2015 13:28, UK
Ben Coley's Power Rankings correctly predicted the winner of the Hong Kong Open. Now here's his take on Turkey.
When Rory McIlroy is in the field and Jason Day and Jordan Spieth are not, there's only one man who can sit atop of any Power Rankings. The current world number three might be winless since the spring, but he's won three of his last 10 European Tour starts and is without question the man to beat. McIlroy is usually at his best on golf courses with plenty of par-fives - there are five of them this week - and when there's been some rain around to soften the course, which there has been in Turkey. It's his course debut, but this is a relatively new layout to everyone and so far it's provided two young, big-hitting champions in Brooks Koepka and Victor Dubuisson. In short, it'll probably come down to two things - attitude and putting. Neither were quite there in California last time but Rory will be eager to cement his place atop the Race To Dubai standings and may well do so with another big win.
When it comes to producing late in the season, there really are few better than Ian Poulter and with no Henrik Stenson in Turkey, the Englishman is McIlroy's biggest danger. We all know that Poulter was not at 100% in his surprise late bid for the Hong Kong Open last week, but he played quite well all things considered and can be expected to step up a level now fully recovered from his Ryder Cup scare. Poulter has been inside the top-five on both starts in this event and should've won it last year, having at one stage in round three been as many as six shots clear of the field. Poulter wins on average more than 1 in 10 starts in the month of November and is more often than not inside the top 10, so it's worth backing him to maintain a trend that dates right back to the start of his career some 15 years ago.
There are a host of prime candidates queuing up to take on McIlroy and few will be feeling as good about their games as Andy Sullivan. It's been a remarkable year for the Nuneaton golfer, with two wins in South Africa followed by his rout in Portugal a fortnight ago, and he now returns to Turkey having where he finished fourth last year despite a second-round 75. There wasn't much of a gap between Sullivan's first win and his second and we've seen through the exploits of Thomas Pieters that back-to-back victories is perfectly possible, so having been so far and away the best player on his latest start, this former Walker Cup star is primed to go well again.
Shane Lowry is second-favourite with the bookmakers this week and that's on the strength of his recent form, rather than anything noteworthy at this course. Lowry was 44th here in 2013 and 25th last year, with just three of his eight rounds below 70, but having landed the biggest win of his career in August it's clear that he's a different animal now. Lowry took some time off shortly after that victory at Firestone and looks in good shape for a late-season surge as he too bids to overhaul McIlroy in the Race To Dubai. Last time out, he ranked second in distance, fifth in greens and fourth in scrambling to finish second at Woburn and a reproduction of those stats would surely see him improve on last year's effort in Turkey.
Another Englishman with strong prospects is Danny Willett who, like Sullivan, has enjoyed a fine year. It all started last December when Willett beat a very good field in the Nedbank Challenge and he's since contended in the Open, reached the last four of the World Match Play and added another title to his collection in Switzerland. While his efforts at Woburn and in the Dunhill Links need improving on, they were preceded by another close call in Italy and the Sheffield star has long been prone to wild swings in form. He was fourth here last year thanks to four very solid rounds and if the putter has been heated up by a fortnight off the course, he'll surely threaten the top-10.
Behind Rory, the most likely course debutant to contend here is Matt Fitzpatrick, who continues to go from strength to strength. For many, a first European Tour win is followed by a period of struggle as they reassess and adjust their goals, but a brief break following his sensational Woburn win was enough for Fitz to prepare himself for the final few events of these season. He got his sights back in with another big performance in Hong Kong last week and while this course could be somewhat less suitable, we're talking about a very special talent who can and will win at a myriad of venues. Fitzpatrick has eyes on the Rookie of the Year award and another top-five finish here would go some way to sealing it.
It's been something of an up-and-down season for Bernd Wiesberger but his brilliant tee-to-green game is well suited to this golf course and he's another fascinating contender. The Austrian closed with a stunning 64 to finish fourth here on his debut two years ago and returns having since collected the biggest victory of his career in the Open de France. Wiesberger has form at courses like Le Golf National and Royal County Down that suggests he prefers a tough challenge, but if the putter is on then he's just as capable of contending at what's likely to be much more of a shootout. Chances are he won't quite get enough to drop to win, but when it comes to finding someone who should be in the top-20 there are few stronger candidates.
If you're having a bet this week, my advice is to take a chance on Victor Dubuisson at the course which saw him break through for a first European Tour title. Two years on, it's remarkable that he's not yet doubled his tally but having been 15th despite a horrific opening round here last year, this course is surely his favourite and therein lies the hope. Dubuisson struck the ball nicely in Hong Kong last week but that layout is surely less suited to his game and while illness and injury concerns are never far away, if he's at 100% then we can expect a much improved display. It could be feast or famine with Dubuisson but at nearly 50/1 it's worth chancing that he produces the former.
3-MC-19-MC-6 represents a hit-and-miss run of form for South Africa's Charl Schwartzel, but having played solidly here on his sole start it's worth giving him the benefit of the doubt. The former Masters champion is becoming something of a frustrating player, one who makes too many mistakes to stick around towards the top of high-class leaderboards, but he's probably more comfortable on the European Tour and may step up a level on his performances in the States. Schwartzel led the field in scrambling on his last start and this course should remind him of home, where he's still a dominant force during the winter months.
If there's a player who fits the trend established by Dubuisson and Koepka, it's Lucas Bjerregaard. Both men were young, aggressive, big hitters looking for their first European Tour titles in Turkey having gone close earlier in the year. Well, Bjerregaard is 24 years old, hits the ball miles and has four top-10 finishes in his last six starts, including second place behind Justin Rose last weekend. Rose was waxing lyrical about the Dane and there's every indication that Bjerregaard won't be long in getting off the mark. To do so in this company would be some effort but, as Dubuisson and Koepka show, it can be done.
Watch the Turkish Airlines Open live on Sky Sports 4. Coverage starts Thursday at 9am.
