Watch the US Open live on Sky Sports Golf from 12.30pm on Thursday
Wednesday 16 September 2020 10:10, UK
Most years, there's a degree of speculation required when it comes to working out what the USGA has in store for us.
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How exactly would Pinehurst play with its trees stripped away? What is this place they call Chambers Bay? Is Erin Hills tough enough? Will Pebble Beach be allowed to get firm?
This year, this strange year, there can be no doubt: Winged Foot will play really hard. There's been talk for months now about how thick and juicy the rough has been encouraged to grow, and that's not even the biggest challenge. Those lining up in New York face some of the most demanding greens in the sport. In fact, there is no collection of 18 quite like them.
It's a case of strap in and enjoy the carnage and those who can keep cool, like Geoff Ogilvy, did will be the focus of Sunday's coverage. It's with that in mind - plus bumper each-way terms across the board - that Tony Finau is one of the standout candidates.
Seven top-10 finishes in 15 major starts say much about Finau's preparation, attitude and adaptability. He simply embraces the challenge as others cry enough and we saw it again at Harding Park, where he was rock-solid in the mix. In fact, all summer he's played the tough courses well - that one, Muirfield Village, Olympia Fields - and there's no reason he won't take to this.
Finau's short-game has been excellent throughout his last couple of starts and those who are able to get up and down will be advantaged. That may be the factor which separates them come the end, but success will be built on strong driving and that's something we can rely upon him for.
Tommy Fleetwood carded a second-round 64 in the PGA Championship to again underline that he's similarly suited to the demands of majors, and he too should go well.
The Englishman played superbly from tee-to-green in Portugal last week and has again prepared ideally. He's placed in two of the last three US Opens and it looks the best major for him, although he's clearly capable of winning any of them.
So too is Hideki Matsuyama, the Japanese ace whose opening 63 at Sawgrass in the spring was rendered inconsequential. He's taken time to rediscover that form this summer but contending at Olympia Fields will have done him the world of good and he's better on these greens than he is the Bermuda surfaces at East Lake, where he struggled last time.
He should go well and so can Jason Day if back in the form that saw him piece together four top-10 finishes in a row, culminating in the PGA Championship. Day has form at Bethpage, Baltusrol, Oakmont, Merion - in other words a host of old, long, classical, US Open-style courses - and he loves these greens.
It's five years since he won a major but he's close to that level again.
Who will win the US Open? Watch the second major of the year, throughout the week, live on Sky Sports. Live coverage begins on Thursday from 12.30pm on Sky Sports Golf.
