Wednesday 6 April 2016 14:38, UK
The opening major of the year gets underway at Augusta this week, where Jordan Spieth looks to defend his Masters title. Ben Coley has looked through the field and selected those best-placed to challenge him.
There can be little doubt as to who is the man to beat this week as Jason Day bids to extend a pair of sequences and win his second straight major and third straight PGA Tour title.
The Australian made a slightly low-key start to 2016 but came alive with a hard-fought victory at Bay Hill, before following up just days later at the WGC Dell Match Play where Rory McIlroy was among his victims.
His combination of brute force and delicate touch is extremely hard to stop and Augusta, where he's twice had a chance to win, is a course he loves. The one nagging doubt with Day is that he's prone to injury and illness - in fact his preparation for this was reportedly set back a day due to flu-like symptoms - but the results speak for themselves.
Having played fewer events than most and with the Match Play stats not counting towards season-long charts, Day doesn't look all that strong on paper this season except for in one department: putting. He ranks third, behind Steve Stricker and Jamie Donaldson and therefore ahead of all other key challengers.
The numbers say he is prone to wild shots at the moment but there's nothing like winning, and that's what Day is doing better than anyone. In fact he's won six of his last 13 events, which isn't all that far from Tiger-like dominance.
I really like Rickie Fowler this week and he could be the man to serve it up to Day. It's six years since Fowler burst on the scene, almost winning a play-off in Las Vegas, but only now does he have all of the experience needed to go through and win a major. In fact, it's a little like what we saw when Day won the PGA.
The Aussie had gone close in majors, then started to collect PGA Tour titles, and put that all together to dominate at Whistling Straits. Fowler, who was top-five in all four majors two years ago, then started collecting titles last year, is in a position to do something similar.
What's more, the stats say he has the perfect game for Augusta, where he was fifth in 2014. Fowler is second in par-five scoring average and first in bogey avoidance; his ball-striking is dramatically improved and his putting remains very good, particularly when it needs to be.
His preparation includes another win in Dubai, disappointment in Phoenix to spur him on a little more, and a solid top-10 last week when nobody in Houston hit more greens in regulation.
Throw in the fact that his Augusta form has improved since he joined Butch Harmon and was able to tap into the experience of Phil Mickelson, and that he carries an air of quiet confidence which screams 'major champion', and this really could be Fowler's week.
Call them trends or omens, there are one or two supposed rules when looking for the Masters winner. One such rule is ignore the defending champion and, unlike some, there is some logic to this one.
Spieth admitted that hosting the Champions' Dinner was something he was nervous about and simply having distractions like that means his preparation for Augusta can't be as straightforward as someone like Rory McIlroy, who appears to be actively attempting to keep things low-key.
Now, it should be acknowledged that Spieth has been defying logic ever since he made his PGA Tour debut aged 16 so we shouldn't be at all surprised if he's just the fourth man in history to win back-to-back Masters titles. However, combine his extra responsibilities with the fact that his form hasn't been particularly impressive of late, and you've reasons to put one or two players in front of him.
The chief positive is that Spieth has a flawless Augusta record and is mature enough to manage his time and expectations. He also began to rediscover his putting touch last week and could well carry that through.
How Spieth performs this week will give us some kind of indication as to what we're dealing with. If he pulls it off, I'd feel pretty comfortable predicting that he'll win more majors than Tiger.
In my eyes, McIlroy is the best of the best. This is personal and everyone will have their favourite, but Rory is mine. I believe that when he's on, he's capable of golf that even Day and Spieth cannot match.
It just so happens that he's not been on for a while, and that's why he's been forced to play bridesmaid throughout 2016, most recently at the Match Play when outbattled by Day in their fascinating semi-final. Still, I do wonder whether all this could serve to help McIlroy this week.
A year ago, he arrived under a great fanfare - could he win a career grand slam? This time around, he's keeping things low-key - or at least he was, until making a hole-in-one in Monday's practice round! Still, keeping away from the par-three contest and avoiding the spotlight that being world number one brings could see McIlroy match his 2011 effort, when for 54 holes he was by far and away the best player.
Since then he's won four majors and while there are demons to overcome on the back-nine of the only major he's yet to win, I strongly believe that McIlroy will overcome them one day.
Can it be Sunday, with a new putting stroke and concerns still around his wedge game? My guess is no, but it would be wholly unwise to underestimate McIlroy. I hope he does it.
Of all the players in this feature, Justin Rose arrives under the radar - which is just the way he likes it. While compatriots Lee Westwood and Luke Donald went to world No 1 and friend Ian Poulter made noise as only Poulter can, Rose has quietly gone about establishing himself as England's best golfer since Sir Nick Faldo.
Wouldn't it be fitting if he could also become England's first Masters champion since Faldo? Rose certainly has the game. One of the world's elite ball-strikers, his putting stats are slightly improved this year and the only real area of concern would be his scrambling, which is definitely a weakness.
However, Rose has made 10 cuts in 10 visits to Augusta and loves the layout, to the extent that I'd fancy him to be comfortably inside the top-five for greens in regulation this week.
That control takes so much pressure off the short game and a glance at Masters winners reveals in names like Adam Scott and Bubba Watson that tee-to-green precision is the foundation for victory.
Rose has played nicely for the last six weeks, clocking up four top-20 finishes in four strokeplay starts, and appears primed to go well following last year's second place behind Spieth. A huge player.
An emotional winner in 2012 and 2014, many will see 2016 as Bubba's year once more. It certainly makes sense as he's now free from the burden of defending his title and the focus is instead on golf's 'Big Three', outside of which Bubba remains among the most prolific winners.
What's more, he's followed a very similar path to two years ago, winning the Northern Trust Open before finishing second at Doral, and his entire campaign has again been geared towards this week.
Watson's talent shows itself better at Augusta than anywhere else. Somehow, even his questionable putting stroke looks good on these lightning-fast greens and his ability to reduce holes like the par-five 13th to a drive and a wedge sets him apart from the majority of the field. Nobody would be surprised were he to land a third Green Jacket.
Before compatriot Day went and stole the show, Adam Scott was the PGA Tour's form man. Victories at the Honda Classic and WGC Cadillac Championship saw the 2013 Masters champion return to his absolute best and dispel doubts around the short putter, which he was forced to turn to following the anchoring ban which came in at the start of the year.
It was the long putter which clearly helped Scott conquer this golf course three years ago and there's probably still a question to answer there, but from tee-to-green he has few peers.
Scott leads the PGA Tour in par-five scoring average this year and has a wealth of Augusta experience to call upon, coupled with the belief only winning majors can bring. He knows he needs to strike now if he's going to add to double his tally and arrives with a big chance.
Japan's Hideki Matsuyama, it's easy to forget, is the same age as Jordan Spieth. And while he has to go some to match the American, I'm sure he has what it takes to win majors over the coming years.
To win two PGA Tour events in little over two years is a fine achievement for anyone, but when you're still learning the language and adapting to the culture, miles from home, it's better yet. Matsuyama has also shown high-class form in majors, such as when 10th in the US Open, sixth in the Open and fifth here last year, results which demonstrate the versatility of a man whose all-round game is exceptionally strong.
If there is a weakness it's the putter, but both of Matsuyama's US wins have come on very fast greens and that should ensure he feels comfortable at Augusta, where he says he's played around 30 rounds already having twice made the cut as an amateur before turning professional.
Matsuyama was sixth on his last strokeplay start and if he holes enough putts it could well be a huge factor on Sunday.
With three Green Jackets in the locker, it might seem harsh that Phil Mickelson is only down in ninth place. That's purely an acknowledgement of the fact that he's not won since the 2013 Open Championship and to end such a drought at Augusta would be remarkable.
Then again, Mickelson has made a career out of producing magic when least expected and his Augusta record, which includes second place alongside Justin Rose just 12 months ago, is exemplary.
Plus, Mickelson has found form in 2016 having switched coach during the off-season and with the driver in particularly starting to behave, he's a big player.
Mickelson's short-game will keep him in play even when his long-game deserts him but in truth all aspects look tuned up for another memorable week at his home away from home.
With top-five finishes in each of his last three strokeplay starts, Dustin Johnson's recent form matches just about anyone in the Masters field. His prodigious length, improved wedge game and underrated putting make for a combination of such brilliance that it remains likely he'll win a major, when the cards finally fall right.
Without doubt, DJ has himself to blame for spurning a series of chances already but it's equally obvious that luck has often been against him and I remain of the opinion that, one day, he will win one - not only will he win one, he'll do so by a comfortable margin.
And it could well be at Augusta, if he can avoid the momentum-killing errors we've seen him make over the last couple of years. Still, Johnson will be playing the event for the seventh time and perhaps his luck is about to change. It would be an overdue win for a phenomenal talent.
