Tuesday 29 March 2016 16:29, UK
Ben Coley casts his eye over the Houston Open field and selects five players who could make a big impression this week.
"Imitation is the greatest form of flattery."
So goes the quote, and so it follows that Golf Club of Houston acts as the perfect prep run for the Masters. A par 72 of similar yardage to Augusta National, course superintendents set it up to mimic next week's venue as best they can which means little in the way of rough and greens as fast as you'll see in any non-major.
And while some of the game's best choose not to play - Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, Adam Scott and Bubba Watson being the standout examples - that may have more to do with scheduling than any doubt as to how beneficial playing in Houston can be. Any doubt was surely expunged by Jordan Spieth's all-the-way Augusta win, just days after he lost a play-off here last year.
But the very fact that players see this as an ideal way to prepare also suggests that the best ones could be vulnerable. Maybe one of them will be putting the finishing touches to a new swing thought; another will be trying to figure out a draw off the tee. Any time players are tinkering, they're less likely to win.
While Spieth nearly won it last year, this idea is supported by past champions like Matt Jones, Johnson Wagner and DA Points, and my advice is to focus on those whose main aim for the week will be to win this event. Those acting in the here and now might hold a big advantage.
One such player is Tony Finau, who won his first PGA Tour title in Puerto Rico last week.
Anyone who follows stateside golf closely will know that big-hitting Finau has been a winner-in-waiting ever since earning his card in late 2014, and now that he has one it would be no surprise were another to follow.
We've seen through Day and Scott in recent weeks that success breeds success and Finau is certainly at an advantage at GC of Houston, where his long drives are rewarded and wayward ones are not so harshly punished.
Finau played well for three rounds here last year, his challenge undone by a poor Saturday, but he has improved in leaps and bounds since with a couple of top-15s in majors, both at courses set up to suit the bombers. At around 80/1 he's worth sticking with.
Kevin Chappell might be the one to follow Finau in getting off the mark and he's certainly due.
This formerly top-class amateur has a quartet of runner-up finishes on the PGA Tour to his name, the pick of which came last time out when he was beaten just a shot by Day at Bay Hill.
A week off to regather himself will have done Chappell the world of good and he looks wise enough now to see that performance as a positive, one he can build on at a course he likes and has played well at previously.
Typically towards the top of the par-four stats - another big pointer towards success here - Chappell should be in contention if carrying over his form from Florida.
Last year saw locally-born Johnson Wagner feature in a play-off and my two Texans are Ryan Palmer and Bronson Burgoon.
Palmer has plenty of good form here to his name, has won three times before and is striking his irons really well. He'll see this as a great opportunity to once again perform well in front of his home fans.
Burgoon is a less familiar name but looks one to watch at big prices. Like Palmer, he went to college at nearby Texas A&M, where he competed against the likes of Rickie Fowler and Kyle Stanley, and while his professional career has taken a while to come together he looks to have all the tools necessary to succeed.
Last week he was right in the mix at the halfway mark in Puerto Rico and perhaps playing on home soil, in the event which gave him his PGA Tour debut a decade ago, can help him extend his solid play to four rounds.
Finally, I like the look of Adam Hadwin.
The Canadian led the field in accuracy last time only to putt poorly, but his work on the greens is usually strong and that was the case when he finished 25th on his debut in this event last year.
With an Olympics spot up for grabs over the coming weeks he's one to watch and this event looks really suitable.
