Who should you back for The Players? Who could be in for a big week at TPC Sawgrass? Ben Coley picks out five golfers to follow this week at the PGA Tour's flagship event - watch throughout the week live on Sky Sports The Players
Wednesday 9 March 2022 13:58, UK
TPC Sawgrass may not always provide the kind of scoring which is so popular with viewers, the like of which we have seen over the last fortnight, but one thing it does better than most is ask questions.
This is a place where almost every tee shot requires a decision, and where a famous closing stretch offers the kind of opportunities Rickie Fowler so electrifyingly took when he won here, but with the most brutal form of punishment awaiting those who misstep.
Gone are the days where those without a good excuse would skip the event, something Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood have done in the past, and this is unequivocally the fifth-most important event on the men's calendar.
The market is accordingly open, with three players vying for favouritism including the defending champion Justin Thomas. Nobody in history has won this title back-to-back but that's a quirk which will not exist forever, and the strength of Thomas's form, plus his obvious affection for Sawgrass, entitles him to respect.
Collin Morikawa, meanwhile, also boasts solid credentials, though I'm struggling to see why he's so much shorter for this than he was for the Genesis Invitational, where he was runner-up on his latest start.
For both Morikawa and Thomas there is a question to be answered: will their decision not to play either the Honda Classic or the Arnold Palmer Invitational leave them at a disadvantage? It's one which applies also to the likes of Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith and Dustin Johnson.
History tells us that a Florida spin is hugely beneficial. Just about everyone had one last year, owing to a new WGC which had been added to the schedule, but it was telling that Bryson DeChambeau and Lee Westwood simply continued what they'd done at Bay Hill only for Thomas to pick their pockets. In 2019, all the key protagonists bar fifth-placed Johnson had been seen over the fortnight prior.
From 2007 to 2018, the event took place in May, virtually guaranteeing that everyone of note had played some form of east coast golf. But I've gone right back to 1989 and from then until 2006, every winner bar David Duval had played in Florida. Duval, like Johnson did with a top-five, graduated to the top of the world rankings after his The Players win so the outliers here were at the very top of the sport.
Morikawa and Thomas are good enough to defy any such handicap, and after McIlroy said he needed a day off following a brutal weekend at Bay Hill, there's a case to be made that freshness could in fact be to their advantage. However, on balance I'm inclined to give the edge to those who are battle-hardened and at 14/1, I can't get away from their co-favourite, Jon Rahm.
It's indisputable that Rahm hasn't been quite at his best lately, because after a brilliant start to the year in Hawaii, only at Torrey Pines - his favourite PGA Tour stop - has he threatened to win. But just as clear is the fact he continues to drive the ball exceptionally, and last week saw him produce his best strokes-gained approach numbers since August, a level of ball-striking superior to that which took him to the US Open title earlier last summer.
For reasons which aren't immediately clear, Rahm's touch both around and on the greens has deserted him, and he'll need to remedy that to win this title. There is hope, though: this is a funk which looks so obviously temporary, and it so happens that he'd been let down by his putter before this event in 2019 and 2021, only to turn things around on the greens here at Sawgrass.
Were that to happen again, he would look very clearly the man to beat, because he's been outperforming both Thomas and Morikawa with his long game, and he's a self-confessed Pete (and Alice) Dye fan who has won at PGA West, and whose form here at Dye's masterpiece is better than at first it may appear.
Given that DeChambeau-Westwood repeat of last year it would be no surprise to see something similar with Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland, first and tied-second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but while that Florida run-out should prove advantageous, perhaps being in the heat of battle under such brutally difficult conditions could take the edge off.
I certainly prefer those, like Rahm, who got through some good work without feeling like they were ever really in the running. Hideki Matsuyama's performance hinted that he could win his fourth title in less than 12 months, having added victories in Japan and Hawaii to that historic Masters triumph last April.
Matsuyama was a never-threatening 20th at Bay Hill and it was encouraging to see his iron play return to the levels of the Phoenix Open, having been a shade disappointing at Riviera. Last week he was solid off the tee and seventh with his approaches, but quiet on the greens.
He certainly enjoys the tee-to-green challenge here, too, and his record in the event reminds me a little of Augusta. There, he'd often threatened and finally put things together having gathered plenty of invaluable experience, and the same could be true on his eighth start here. Matsuyama has already bagged five top-25s from seven, plus shot that stunning, course-record 63 before having it expunged in 2020.
Having played the best golf in the field over the final two rounds of the 2019 edition, an 11-under weekend vaulting him from the cut-line to eighth, Matsuyama's only recent mishap came in round one last year when he played himself out of the tournament. Nevertheless, he recovered with an excellent second round to narrowly miss the cut, and since then has enjoyed the best year of his career. His game is so obviously in a better place now.
Jordan Spieth was fourth on debut when leading through 54 holes, so it's therefore a little peculiar that his six subsequent starts have yielded a best of 41st. However, last year he ranked sixth in strokes-gained approach and again drove the ball well, something he's always done here except when at a low ebb in 2019.
Spieth hasn't warmed-up in Florida, electing to skip the Honda and Bay Hill. He's yet to play in the former so that can't be labelled a surprise, but having been fourth in the Arnold Palmer last year, it does seem a little odd that he's taken a fortnight off since Riviera.
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That may prove his undoing, but we are at least talking about a Texan who thrives on Bermuda grass so the transition ought not to be as problematic as it could be for some, and Spieth did manage to win the Open after four weeks away in 2017. If Duval can overcome the handicap, then perhaps so can he.
Mackenzie Hughes has started to look very comfortable when rubbing shoulders with the elite, finishing sixth in last year's Open just a month after he'd held the 54-hole lead in the US Open, where a final-round 77 owed plenty to an unfortunate incident which saw his ball get stuck up a tree.
Hughes looks best when conditions are demanding and that was again the case when second to Sungjae Im at the Honda Classic a couple of years ago. His form so far this year isn't immediately appealing, after a fantastic end to 2021, but he's missed two cuts narrowly in events where his record is poor.
Having been 16th at Pebble Beach, there's been plenty of good stuff in four starts and that's also true of his visits to Sawgrass, where he led after round one on debut and then hit the ball really well when shooting middle rounds of 67 and 68 on his return. Third at Dye's TPC River Highlands in 2020, he has a sprinkling of correlating form but it's the flashes he's shown here which really appeal.
Former champion Si Woo Kim, a surprise winner here in 2017, has since rubber-stamped his credentials as a genuine Dye specialist by also winning at PGA West in The American Express. Also second at Harbour Town, 11th at River Highlands and 20th at Crooked Stick, Kim's first win came at an old-school Sedgefield - where a number of former Players champions have also triumphed.
This then is absolutely the sort of test he wants, something hinted at with a couple of eye-catching Augusta performances, and along with five cuts made from five visits to Sawgrass, a win in 2017 and ninth place last year, Kim shot an opening 65 to lie second behind Matsuyama before the tournament was cancelled two years ago.
A definite horses-for-courses player, Kim won this without putting well and again hit his ball to a very high standard last year, so the fact he's driven it to a high standard on all seven starts in 2022 and has shown improvements with his approaches lately suggests he could once more up his game at the course where he made his name.
Who will win The Players? Watch all four rounds live on Sky Sports' dedicated Players Championship channel. Watch live on Thursday from 11.30am on Sky Sports The Players.
