Tuesday 1 December 2015 11:29, UK
Where does Marinus Dijkhuizen’s Brentford sacking leave the football analytics revolution? Adam Bate looks at events at the club that continues to divide opinion...
It's not easy being a poster boy. The hopes and dreams of others are soon transposed onto you. Liverpool boss Brendan Rodgers tells a tale to that effect in the brilliant new book about football management Living On The Volcano. "There's a guy I really respect in the coaching fraternity in youth development," says Rodgers.
"He was delighted when I moved from that area into management at Watford, but when I got the sack at Reading I could see the pain in his face. He looked at me and went, 'We all really wanted you to succeed'. It was as if he was hurt for himself and the modern breed of coaches who are coming through."
It's understandable if football's analytics devotees are feeling a similar sense of deflation this week following the news that Marinus Dijkhuizen has been sacked by Brentford. It's just the latest setback for a club that had put itself at the forefront of the game's data analytics revolution.
In some circles, there is little sympathy. Football does 'I told you so' better than most and the decision not to renew Mark Warburton's contract, despite him guiding the Bees to within two play-off ties of the top flight for the first time since 1947, baffled many. Subsequent events have only supported that view.
Warburton thriving
Having won his first 11 games in charge, Warburton is thriving at Rangers. Meanwhile, Dijkhuizen, brought in on the basis of strong underlying data from his time with Excelsior in Holland, departs Brentford with the club just one point above the Championship's relegation zone. It's an irresistible contrast.
For Brentford, it's been a miserable start. Although styled as a club concerned with the details, summer drainage work on the Griffin Park left the surface "a disaster, awful and unbelievable" according to Dijkhuizen and club-record signing Andreas Bjelland duly suffered a cruciate knee ligament injury in their first game on it - a 4-0 cup defeat to Oxford.
Bjelland has formed just part of a crippling injury list with new signings suffering more than most, while the club-record sale of Andre Gray to Burnley last month - after having scored in Brentford's first two games - only added to the sense of disruption.
The February statement had justified the parting of the ways with Warburton in terms of differing "football philosophies" but it's Brentford's focus on hitherto unconsidered key performance indicators and mathematical modelling that's under scrutiny now. And the views of sporting director Rasmus Ankersen still feel subversive.
Radical
"We redesigned the club based on a question," Ankersen told Michiel de Hoog of De Correspondent. "What would a football club look like if it had no human eye and ear? Of course, it turns out you need a human element but if you say from the start it has to be a combination of stats and humans, you won't be radical enough to make a difference."
In many ways, football in Britain with its accepted wisdoms, tired truisms and flawed logic remains ripe for radicalisation and Brentford's initial success hinted that the gains that could be made by taking an entirely fresh approach were not so marginal.
Moreover, some of the criticism of Brentford's new regime revealed more about the status quo than the interlopers. One anecdote complaining about new head of player analytics Ted Knutson leaning on a post during training was a good example of why some rules remain unwritten - they're fatuous - rather than evidence of any opprobrium on his part.
But other reported issues were more troubling. Removing the right of veto regarding transfers is one thing but suggestions there was an involvement in the captaincy choice and issuing of in-game instructions would present practical problems for any coach. Even Dijkhuizen, who presumably went in with his eyes wide open, could not countenance that.
What next?
What happens next will be intriguing. Owner Matthew Benham remains committed to his model but football too should surely remain inquisitive. Despite the scepticism, don't doubt that chairmen across the land have been viewing Brentford with considerable curiosity. After all, original thinking is surely the slingshot with which Goliath can be felled.
One example should not end the debate but it can shape its discourse. And yet, just as Rodgers' record should not dictate the career prospects of every youth coach with a positive demeanour and a fine line in management-speak, nor should Brentford's experiences be definitive.
"Obviously, the next couple years we'll find out if we're right or not," Benham told Sports Illustrated earlier this year. "I think there are a lot of people who are going to watch the project in the next couple years, and a lot of people hope we'll succeed, and lot of people hope we'll fail. So it'll be pretty interesting."
He wasn't wrong. And for the first time since Benham took on the challenge, the equation isn't adding up. But if that means Brentford's foray into analytics is seen as a dead end then it will be football's loss. And analytics experts everywhere will be left to bemoan the small sample size and that old enemy called bad luck.
