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Friday 27 September 2024 15:07, UK
Wolves to get a result against Liverpool? Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide his insight on every Premier League game.
Newcastle have become very tame under Eddie Howe.
When they roared to Champions League qualification they were fierce, energetic and horrible to play against. They are none of those things in their current guise - and were woefully exposed at Fulham last weekend. A result that had been coming for a while after some fine-margin victories where they had run away from their poor underlying numbers.
Since November last year - a run of 33 games - when assessing ever present Premier League teams, only West Ham have averaged more expected goals against per 90 than Newcastle - that's 1.83 a game.
And their shots faced data is sending out alarm bells.
Remarkably, Newcastle have conceded 10 or more shots in their last 26 Premier League fixtures and that equates to a shots faced per game average of 15.8 - the third worst record in the Premier League over that timeframe.
That inability to stem the flow towards your goal leaves them mightily vulnerable to a proper shellacking from Manchester City if Pep Guardiola's team are in the mood.
It might sound glaringly obvious but the Evens on offer for City to win and Erling Haaland to score - a man who is averaging a goal every 53 minutes across his last 11 Premier League appearances - looks a winner in waiting.
Have a Premier League team ever been shorter than 8/11 to win a game to nil?
Well, that's the price surrounding this monstrous Arsenal defence shutting out Leicester and winning the game. It'll probably land but boy that is a short price.
I'd much rather back the under 2.5 goals line at 6/4 with Sky Bet in anticipation that Arsenal may put their cue on the rack to preserve energy during this relentless run of seven games in 23 days. This is also the type of game where they'll miss Martin Odegaard's creativity to break down what will be a very low block by Leicester. A low-scoring home win it is.
No team have made more fouls in the Premier League than West Ham (80) and with the pressure growing after what has been a shoddy start to the season, I'd expect similar averages to be hit here.
With a central midfield of Lucas Paqueta (1.81 fouls per game in last 30 starts), Carlos Soler (made six fouls in just 120 minutes of action) and Tomas Soucek (1.58 fouls per game in last 30 starts), it's that area of the pitch where the bulk of foul play may occur.
Using the BuildABet function with Sky Bet, I'd advise combining Lucas Paqueta to make 2+ fouls and Vitaly Janelt to be fouled at least once which brings out a 6/4 shot that stands a great chance of landing in a game where the draw is fancied.
Brighton to win the corner race at 2/1 with Sky Bet is a proper banging bet.
Teams that like to play an aggressive high line are notoriously associated with conceding fewer corners.
It makes sense.
The key goal of trying to catch opposition players offside is to keep them from having sustained pressure on your goal. If you can keep a team away from your box, then the likelihood of the opposition managing to post shots that could lead to corners or getting deep down the wings to force corners is reduced.
To simplify the theory, the higher and more aggressive the defensive line, the fewer corners are likely to be conceded. And the market doesn't price up the corner markets with that factored in, so we're in business.
The trend is already there for Fabian Hurzeler's teams conceding a low amount of corners from his time at St Pauli, who won the Bundesliga 2 title last season and conceded just 130 corners to an average of just 3.8 per game - the fewest of any team.
It has continued at Brighton, who have only conceded just 2.2 corners per 90 this season. It's a style of football that does lead to big chances being offered up on their goal but not a high volume of corners via sustained pressure. They can restrict Chelsea to a low amount and rack up the corner count at the other end.
Despite winless starts for both teams, there have been shoots of hope in forward areas.
The Everton front four combined dangerously together at Leicester for 60 minutes and should have put the game to bed, while when you have Eberechi Eze you always have a chance in a football match. Palace remain a threat to anyone.
Sean Dyche will want this to be a gritty, no-thrills style of game but Everton's aren't defending securely enough to do that.
The over 2.5 goals line at 4/5 with Sky Bet should go close.
As should Dwight McNeil's goalscorer price of 4/1 with Sky Bet.
He's revelling in playing in a more central role behind Dominic Calvert-Lewin and has posted two or more shots in four of his last five appearances, racking up 12 shots in total and found the net against Aston Villa.
Backing the form horse is usually a wise tactic in betting and Fulham are galloping along nicely under Marco Silva, who yet again is showing what a smart operator he is. His front four are a dangerous proposition, led by the irresistible Adama Traore down the right flank. A trip to Forest, who are without their star man Morgan Gibbs-White, looks a good opportunity for the away side at 19/10 with Sky Bet.
Gibbs-White has missed seven games since Forest were promoted and they've lost five of those, scoring just five times in the process and averaging just 0.79 expected goals per 90. Plus, the City Ground has only seen the home side win on three occasions from the last 16 Premier League games. Fulham should hold no fear. They should be backed to avoid defeat.
If you include their Carabao Cup match against Brighton, Wolves will have played all seven of the top eight in the Premier League already this season after this match. It's been a rotten fixture list.
That makes them a hard team to assess, especially when they've posted some encouraging performances and racked up some healthy underlying numbers. Gary O'Neil's team have conceded almost seven more goals than their expected goals against numbers suggest - the biggest defensive underperformance.
Those numbers will close, potentially this weekend. Wolves are owed a bit of luck and Liverpool showed in their defeat to Nottingham Forest this Arne Slot team will go through some sticky patches this season. Wolves to avoid defeat at 9/4 with Sky Bet looks a big price.
Ipswich are having to become a bit nastier than they were in the Championship in order to try and survive at this level.
They are making more fouls (14.2), receiving more yellow cards (3) and making more tackles (18.4) than they did per 90 in the Championship. Aston Villa are also a team that like confrontation and this looks a potential firecracker of an encounter where the cards line is a value play at 10/11 with Sky Bet for 50+ booking points.
Referees are as fussy as ever in the Premier League and 19 of the last 23 matches have seen 50+ booking points dished out.
This has to be the trickiest game of the weekend to form a strong opinion on. It could end 4-1 either way. It could end 4-4. I haven't a clue.
I do think Manchester United are improving on what we saw last season, just a basic drawdown of their baffling data from last season proves that. They've only faced 10 shots per game this season after facing 17.6 per game last season and are averaging just 3.1 corners per game conceded this season which was at a remarkable 7.3 last season, the most of any Premier League team.
Meanwhile, Tottenham's record against top-11 teams away from home since the start of last season is awful, winning two of 12 matches, and conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game.
The 13/10 on a home win did tempt me but I'm not quite trustworthy enough of United yet to invest.
A high-scoring draw it is then.
When there is Tyler Dibling, there is hope for Southampton this season.
We might just be looking at the next superstar in English football based on his early output.
The 18-year-old academy product wowed on debut against Manchester United, bamboozling Diogo Dalot who made four fouls against him, including one to win Saints a penalty. He then scored his first goal of his career in the 1-1 draw with Ipswich and created another big moment for Cameron Archer, who hit the post with a wasteful finish.
His attacking output and the way he moves with the ball reminds me of Jack Grealish - and he draws fouls like him too, winning eight fouls in his two Premier League starts. His opposite number Milos Kerkez might be in for a tricky evening and looks a spot of value to be carded at 9/2 with Sky Bet.
